Orange Bowl – Florida State vs Georgia Free Picks

Florida State won’t get an opportunity to play for a national championship, but the Seminoles still can finish the season by making a statement. After being left out of the College Football Playoff despite an undefeated record, the fifth-ranked Seminoles will face two-time defending NCAA champion Georgia in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30.

No. 6 Georgia opened as a resounding 13-point favorite and has climbed to -14, including -600 on the moneyline. Florida State, meanwhile, is +450 to win outright. The projected total is 44.5, down slightly from 45.

Read on as we break down the NCAAF matchup and give our picks for the 2023 Orange Bowl.

Orange Bowl

No Consolation Prize for Title-Minded Georgia

Despite spending a majority of the season ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, Georgia won’t have a shot at a third straight NCAA title. Those hopes ended once the Bulldogs lost 27-24 to rival Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. As such, the Bulldogs (12-1) dropped from No. 1 to No. 6 in the polls and fell out of the top four for the CFP.

While the Bulldogs are back in the New Year’s Six, that’s little consolation to a team with championship-or-bust expectations. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs opened the season as heavy +375 title favorites and stayed atop college football bowl projections nearly all year.

With a title no longer at stake, Georgia’s roster is very much in flux as it prepares for the 2023 Orange Bowl. Quarterback Carson Beck still could potentially opt out, while tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey have both been dealing with injuries and are candidates to join Beck on the sidelines. Those decisions should come soon.

On top of that, roughly a dozen Bulldogs have already entered the NCAA transfer portal. That includes backup quarterback Brock Vandagriff, who transferred to Kentucky, and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who had 3.5 sacks but missed the final four games with an injury. Offensive tackle Amarius Mims was injured in the SEC title game and is another candidate to sit.

The Bulldogs were favored in every game this season, by as few as 5.5 points and as many as 51 on the college football betting line. That said they went just 4-8-1 ATS, including 1-4 over the last five games.

FSU Snubbed, Dealing with Opt-Outs

Florida State went 13-0 and won the ACC title but became the first undefeated Power Five champion to miss the CFP. The Seminoles were the odd team out of the four-team playoff, landing behind fellow unbeatens Michigan and Washington and one-loss teams Texas and Alabama.

While star quarterback Jordan Travis is out for the season (broken leg), backup Tate Rodemaker should return for the 2023 Orange Bowl. With Rodemaker sidelined with a concussion, freshman Brock Glenn started the ACC Championship Game and struggled mightily, completing only 8 of 21 passes for 55 yards.

However, thanks to a dominant defense and potent run game, the Seminoles held off Louisville 16-6 to complete their first 13-win season since 2014.

The Seminoles will be without several starters for the college bowl, including leading rusher Trey Benson. The redshirt junior rushed for 905 yards and 14 touchdowns and is opting out to begin preparations for the NFL Draft. Tight end Jaheim Bell and defensive tackle Fabien Lovett also won’t play after joining Benson in declaring for the draft.

Juice Loses Some Squeeze

If everything had gone to plan, these NCAAF teams very easily could’ve squared off for the national championship. Instead, we’re forced to settle for less. This matchup has undoubtedly lost some juice, especially with both teams dealing with opt outs and transfers.

While the Bulldogs and Seminoles aren’t alone in that regard, they’ve been hit particularly hard. Their rosters will look very different from what we’re accustomed. That makes this one of the tougher games on the slate to pick.

PICK

We could see a significant shift in these odds if more Georgia players decide to opt out, including Beck. Until then, we have to roll with the Bulldogs. Even with Rodemaker healthy, Kirby Smart’s team has a significant edge at quarterback. Benson’s decision to sit further depletes a once-elite Florida State offense.

Thus, we’re taking Georgia at -600 on the moneyline and to cover the 14-point spread. We’d even consider going up to -16 if Beck, Bowers and McConkey decide to play.

Given Florida State’s recent struggles to score, we’re also siding with the Under of 44.5.

For NCAAF stats, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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