Quick Lane Bowl Betting Odds: Falcons Going Bowling for 1st Time Since 2015

Bowling Green Looks to Continue Remarkable Turnaround With Bowl Win

There might not be a more improbable bowl matchup. Just two years ago Bowling Green was winless and outscored in its five games during the COVID-shortened season 225-57 and now the Quick Lane Bowl betting odds list the Falcons as the favorite.

New Mexico State dropped to 5-32 over its last 37 games against Football Bowl Subdivision teams after an 0-4 start.

Bowling Green used a three-game winning streak to put itself a win away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. The Falcons used a 42-35 win in mid-November to get that elusive sixth win. For New Mexico State, there wasn’t as much drama with FCS Valparaiso the opponent in the regular-season finale. The key was an upset the previous week against Liberty.

This is the first game for New Mexico State against a Mid-American Conference team since a 42-28 loss on Oct. 12, 2019 as a 10.5-point underdog.

Bowling Green is 4-7-1 against the spread this season while New Mexico State is 7-5 against the NCAA football odds.

Turnover-Prone Teams Set to Meet in Quick Lane Bowl

The one thing the NCAAB teams have in common is ball security issues in losses.

Bowling Green is +9 in turnover margin in the six wins compared to -8 in six losses. For New Mexico State, the numbers are +5 in the six wins and -10 in the six losses.

New Mexico State is a rare 6-6 team to play in a bowl game with two of the wins coming against FCS teams as only one of those games typically counts toward bowl eligibility.

Bowling Green clearly has the edge when it comes to former Michigan products returning home for the bowl game. Receiver Tyrone Broden (30 catches) as well as linebackers Brock Horne (44 tackles) and Bryce Bland (16 tackles) are key NCAAF players for the Falcons set to play in front of friends and family. Perhaps that played a role in the Quick Lane Bowl betting odds favoring the Falcons.

Hoping for Passing Grades

New Mexico State didn’t get to a bowl game on the strength of its passing game. Only seven teams average fewer passing yards per game against FBS competition this season than the Aggies and three of them are the service academies that feature run-heavy option offenses.

That could be playing a role in the Quick Lane Bowl betting odds listing New Mexico State as three-point underdogs.

However, Diego Pavia completed 73.5% of his passes for 537 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions so perhaps the Aggies will have some success throwing the ball.

The defense has allowed just 4.5 yards per passing attempt against Liberty and Valparaiso and will look to continue that play in the team’s first bowl game since a 26-20 win over Utah State in the 2017 Arizona Bowl.

McDonald Tries to Find His Game

The Quick Lane Bowling Green quarterback Matt McDonald threw three interceptions in his first 270 pass attempts. It has been a different story more recently as he was intercepted five times in 105 passes over the last three games.

The Falcons lost two of those games with the margin of victory of 58 points sandwiched around a wild 42-35 win at Toledo with McDonald tossing four touchdown passes. A huge key in that win was Odieu Hiliare as he had 246 yards on eight catches and a pair of touchdowns. He finished with 32 yards on 11 catches in the losses to Kent State and Ohio.

Karl Brooks had four tackles for loss and two sacks in the Toledo game and he has 10 sacks to lead the Falcons.

Pace of Play Could Prove Pivotal in the Quick Lane Bowl

New Mexico State will try to keep the Bowling Green offense off the field as the Aggies run 10 fewer plays per game than Bowling Green does. That is something to keep in mind when looking at the Quick Lane Bowl betting odds.

The total has gone under in four of New Mexico State’s last six NCAAF Games when listed as the underdog, but the total has gone over in four of the Aggies’ last five games.

New Mexico State is not only 5-1 in its last six games, but it has also covered in each of those victories.

If it comes down to the final minutes, Bowling Green could have the edge with a 5-1 record this season in one-score games.

When looking at the Bowling Green vs New Mexico State odds, the total of 48 is tied for the third-lowest number for Bowling Green this season. Each of Bowling Green’s last five bowl games finished over the total.

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