Sugar Bowl Betting Odds: Alabama vs Kansas State
Crimson Tide Favored by Nearly a Touchdown
The Sugar Bowl between Alabama and Kansas State looks to be a pretty solid game between two very good teams. Of course, Alabama didn’t expect to be playing in an early game on New Year’s Eve, as the two playoff games will be played later in the day. Kansas State is thrilled to be here. The Wildcats could have an edge in motivation. But Nick Saban will get the most out of his players, something he excels at.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) vs Kansas State (10-3)
Date & Time:
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Streaming: ESPN
Alabama Still Favored by Less Than a Touchdown
The Sugar Bowl betting odds saw Alabama open as 5.5-point favorites. The line has moved to Alabama -6.5, but hasn’t hit the magical number of 7. This is the smallest favorite Alabama has been all season.
The Tide was favored by 9.5 when they lost to Tennessee and by 13 against LSU. The Wildcats were 14-point underdogs to Oklahoma on Sept. 24 and won the game outright. Kansas State was 2-2 as an underdog this season but 9-3-1 ATS. Alabama was just 5-7 against the spread.
The Sugar Bowl betting odds saw the total open at 55.5 and make a slight move to 56. Both NCAAF teams had slight under tendencies during the year, with Alabama going 5-7 and the Wildcats were 6-7. Alabama had just two games with a lower posted total, going 1-1. Kansas State had nine games with a lower total and went 4-5.
The Alabama vs Kansas State odds have done what’s expected on the moneyline, with Alabama climbing slightly to coincide with the spread move. Alabama is now -220 on the moneyline.
Should Alabama be in Playoffs?
While plenty of people are saying it’s been a down year for Alabama, the Tide were just four points short of an undefeated season. A last-play field goal and a 2-point conversion in overtime led to Alabama’s two defeats this season.
Saban will be motivating his players by saying it’s a chance to prove the playoff committee wrong. He’s right in that regard. If Alabama looks impressive against Kansas State Wildcats and either of the playoff games is lopsided, people will be saying Alabama deserved to be there. The Sagarin college football rankings have Alabama at No. 4 in the country, 5.38 points better than TCU.
Alabama averaged 40.8 points this NCAAF season against teams that allowed an average of 27.1. Alabama can move the ball on the ground, averaging 198.3 yards per game. The Tide gained 5.6 yards per carry against teams that allowed just 4.5 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan see the bulk of the carries, combing for 1,463 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Bryce Young can also run, although Saban would rather he didn’t most of the time he leaves the pocket. When you have a QB who throws for more than 3,000 yards and 27 TDs, you don’t really want them in a position to be injured.
Alabama’s defense was good, although not quite as dominating as several of the Alabama teams in recent years. The Tide allowed 18 points per game to teams scoring 28.7 points and allowed just 4.5 yards per play. The Tide were equally strong against the run or the pass.
Kansas State Defense Underrated
People want to talk about the Wildcats’ offense, but the Kansas State defense is first-rate. The Wildcats allowed 20.1 points per game to teams which averaged 30.3 points during the season. That’s close to Alabama and a big reason why the Sugar Bowl betting odds saw the total open in the mid-50s.
The Wildcats were a little more effective college football players stopping the pass than the run. Kansas State allowed 4.3 yards per carry to teams averaging 4.6 yards, so Alabama may try to exploit that. The Wildcats did allow 30 or more points on four occasions but Kansas State went against some high-powered offenses.
Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez may be able to go here but the Wildcats will stick with Will Howard, who was great this season, throwing 15 TDs against two interceptions. The Wildcats plan on getting Martinez some playing time if he’s healthy enough. He’s a much better runner and a decent thrower. Naturally, the Wildcats will look to get Deuce Vaughn going after he ran for 1,425 yards this season. Vaughn is also a threat coming out of the backfield and had 42 receptions during the season.
The Wildcats averaged scores for this season was 33.2 points per game against teams who allowed 27.1 points. Kansas State can get the job done but does like to run the ball first. Be sure to check the rest of the NCAAF scores for this season.
The Wildcats averaged 40.5 rushing attempts and 27.2 pass attempts this season. Kansas State was 4-3 when rushing for less than 200 yards and 6-0 when rushing for more than 200 yards this season.
Can Tide Rise to the Challenge?
The Sugar Bowl betting odds of Alabama -6.5 look tempting for the favorite provided Saban has them ready. Alabama is better offensively and gets a slight nod on defense. The Tide did get a break in regards to opt-outs.
The team’s big guns are all playing in this one, including several expected to be high draft picks. That says something for the cohesion of the team. But the line is also a bit scary – Alabama is a public team and the Wildcats are not.
Kansas State will also have its full compliment of players. Getting a chance to face Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is hard to pass up. Kansas State was picked fifth in the preseason media poll, so you’d like to see them do well here. The problem is that this will be the best team they’ve faced all season. You probably can’t say the same for Alabama.
The Sugar Bowl betting odds on the total look the most appealing, with both teams capable of scoring. While both defenses are solid, they also allowed some points to good offenses. The over 56 looks to be the way to go in this college football matchup.
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