Texas Tech vs Baylor Preview: Game Looks to Be a Toss-Up

The Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the Baylor Bears in a key Big 12 Conference game for both NCAAF teams. The Red Raiders are 2-3 on the season, while Baylor is just 1-3. Neither team can really afford a loss in this one if it hopes to advance to a bowl game. The Texas Tech vs Baylor preview shows the Red Raiders as a 1-point favorite with the total on the game sitting at 59.

Red Raiders Need Defense to Step Up

The Texas Tech defense has played better over the past three games. But it should have. The Red Raiders were favored between 6 and 36.5 points those three contests. It’s the first two games of the year Texas Tech would like to have back, scoring at least 30 points both games, but losing each one.

Offensively, Texas Tech is rolling along with an average of 33.2 points per game. The Red Raiders have rushed the ball well the past four weeks, gaining at least 160 yards a game. The Red Raiders have been held under 200 passing yards each of the last three games. But the rushing game has picked up the slack, with a pair of 200-yard games. Texas Tech is averaging 5.0 yards per carry on the season against teams which allow 4.3 yards.

The Red Raiders need to do a better job with time of possession. Texas Tech is averaging less than 27 minutes per game, leaving the defense on the field too much. It might not be easy against a Baylor team that averages more than 31.5 minutes of possession. But it’s an area to improve on.

Texas Tech has done a decent job against the run, allowing 4.0 yards to teams averaging 4.8 yards per carry. But the pass defense has been pretty average and will get a test from the Bears.

Baylor Looks to Build on First Victory

After starting the season 0-3, Baylor got a much-needed victory over UCF to break into the win column. The college football scores show the Bears escaping with a 36-35 win, but that doesn’t tell the story of the game. The Bears trailed 35-7 in the third quarter before mounting a furious comeback to steal the game on the road. It could be the type of game the Bears needed to turn their season around. Or it could create a letdown situation in this game.

The Bears are averaging 21.5 points per game. But part of that can be attributed to playing Texas and Utah in the early season. Baylor foes are allowing 19.2 points per game, so the Bears are a shade above average despite a low average score. The Bears are gaining 3.3 yards per rush against teams who allow 3.5 yards a carry. So the Bears aren’t as bad of a rushing team as it may first appear.

Baylor is averaging 308 passing yards per game, but the Bears have just four TD passes and have been intercepted four times. Starting quarterback Blake Shapen returned against UCF and the Bears should be good moving forward with the passing game.

Baylor’s defense hasn’t been very good, allowing 35 or more points in three of their four games. The Bears allow 5.0 yards per carry and the pass defense isn’t anything special. Baylor is allowing 253.3 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per pass attempt.

What to Expect

The Texas Tech vs Baylor preview expects the Red Raiders to come out and try to run the football. That’s what Texas Tech does best and stopping the run isn’t a strong point for the Bears. Baylor won’t abandon the pass, but the Bears have to know both wins came when the team rushed for more than 200 yards.

Baylor might also have a little more success on the ground than they’ve this season. With Shapen back in the line-up, teams have to respect the pass a little bit more than they did when he was out. The Bears did run for a season-high 153 yards in the win over Central Florida.

Who to Bet On?

The Texas Tech vs Baylor odds of Bears -1 might be a little bit low. The Sagarin college football ratings have Texas Tech 6.02 points better than Baylor on a neutral field. The would suggest the NCAA lines football be closer to Texas Tech -4. But the Bears are riding high after the win over UCF, so the home field advantage might be worth a little bit more in this case.

The Texas Tech vs Baylor preview is expecting to see more rushing attempts from these two teams. That will help the under, which is the way to go in this one.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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