UCF vs Kansas Odds: ‘Hawks Favorites QB Status Unclear

The Kansas Jayhawks have to shake off the disappointment of last week’s loss to Texas and prepare for a solid UCF squad. The Jayhawks though this could be the year to topple Texas, but that opportunity went out the window in pregame warmups. Starting quarterback Jalon Daniels left the field and didn’t return. The result was a predictable 40-14 thumping at the hands of the Longhorns.

The Knights suffered a heartbreak of their own, allowing Baylor to score 26 fourth-quarter points and pull out a stunning 36-35 victory. Both teams need to regroup in a hurry. The UCF vs Kansas odds have the Jayhawks favored by 3.5 points at home and the total on the game is at 62.5 points.

UCF Has Classic Meltdown

The Knights are going to have to wait a bit longer for their first Big 12 Conference victory after giving last week’s game away to Baylor. UCF made two fourth-quarter turnovers inside Baylor territory, one of which resulted in a 72-yard fumble return for a Bears touchdown.

It was an NCAAF game UCF had in the bag. Late in the third quarter with a 35-7 lead, the Knights were given a 99.9% chance of winning the game. But there’s a reason that .1% is there for a comeback. It rarely happens, but it does happen.

The Knights haven’t been overmatched in the first two Big 12 Conference games on their college football schedule. But they’re 0-2 straight-up and against the point spread. The offense has scored 66 points, but the defense has allowed 80. UCF will need some time to become familiar with Big 12 offenses.

Offensively, things are moving along for Central Florida. The Knights are averaging 37.6 points per game. UCF is averaging 255 yards on the ground per game and runs 42 times. The Knights throw the ball 28.6 times per game and are averaging 290.6 yards per game.

The defense allowed 36 points combined in UCF’s first three games of the season. But the Knights have allowed 36 or more points in both Big 12 Conference games they’ve played so far. The passing defense has been a little bit better than the rushing defense. But UCF has been pretty average defensively on the season.

Kansas Seeks Return to Winning Ways

The Jayhawks have to pick themselves mentally and get back to business. Kansas is 4-1 on the season and can still get itself in one of the better bowl games with a few more victories. But it needs the defense to come out and start playing a little better better.

The Jayhawks allowed Texas to gain more than 300 yards rushing and passing and surrendered 661 total yards in the loss to the Longhorns. Kansas is allowing 26.2 points per game against teams who average 24.2 points per contest.

Offensively, there’s no doubt Kansas is better with Daniels. But his lingering back issues are cause for concern. There was no indication he wouldn’t be playing against Texas until there was less than an hour before kickoff.

Kansas runs the ball 60% of the time. But the running game and passing game compliment each other with Daniels in the lineup. Teams don’t respect the pass as much when he’s not in the line-up, which makes it harder for the running game.

Kansas is 2-3 on the NCAAF scores and odds, failing to cover the two games in which it was favored by 28 or more points. The Jayhawks are 2-3 in totals, with 56 the lowest number they’ve seen this season.

What to Expect

Both teams like to run the ball and are keeping it on the ground 60% of the time. Neither team is the greatest at stopping the run, so both could move the ball on the ground pretty well. But both teams also like to throw after the run is established and are averaging one yard more per pass attempt than they defense allows for the season. So while the teams may not throw as much as some teams, they’re successful when they do.

Provided Daniels can play, both he and UCF’s Timmy McClain can make the defenses pay if they place too much emphasis on stopping the run. McClain is averaging 10.6 yards per pass attempt and Daniels is at 9.4. The college football average is 7.4 yards per passing attempt, so both are well above average.

Who to Bet On?

The UCF vs Kansas odds of Jayhawks -3.5 is about what you would expect on the game. Kansas did open as 3-point favorites, and the point spread stayed there for a bit before hitting 3.5. UCF lost its only game as an underdog this season, failing to cover the spread at Kansas State. Kansas is 2-2 ATS as a favorite, covering the number in both games they were favored by single digits.

The UCF vs Kansas odds of 62.5 on the total seems like a bit high, considering both teams like to run the ball. But with the rushing defense of both teams not quite up to par, it makes sense. Still, games with a total of 62 or higher are just 16-24-1 in totals this season. But with Central Florida seeing 62 or more points in four of its five games, taking the over makes a bit of sense here and is probably the way to go.

For more NCAAF news, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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