Will Key Absences Weigh Down Ohio State in Cotton Bowl Classic?

The Cotton Bowl kicks off this upcoming Friday. We’ve got the latest updates on lines, injuries, departures and weather right here:

Ohio State opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but the odds turned in Missouri’s favor within the first 24 hours over concerns about the availability of several key Buckeyes. Numerous players quickly hit the transfer portal, including quarterback Kyle McCord and receiver Julian Fleming.

The Tigers, in midst of their first double-digit win season since 2014, took over as 1-point favorites and climbed as high as -2.5 before the lines flipped a second time on Dec. 21. Bettors moved the line back in the Buckeyes’ favor at -1, and it’s climbed up to -3 on the eve of kickoff.

It’ll likely stay there too, as bettors continue to back Ohio State despite the uncertainty surrounding multiple starters, including star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Although Harrison Jr. remains with the team, he did not practice on Wednesday nor did he partake in interview sessions afterward with other offensive starters.

Although the team has not clarified his status, it’s presumed that Harrison Jr., a two-time AP All-American and Heisman Trophy finalist, will sit out the bowl game with an eye toward preparing for the 2024 NFL Draft. Harrison Jr. is a projected top-5 pick.

The Buckeyes are also -155 on the moneyline, with Missouri coming in at +130 to win outright.

Meanwhile, the Over/Under has remained steady at 49 after dropping from its opening total of 51.5. Notably, Missouri hasn’t seen a total that low since Sept. 16 against Kansas State (47.5).

Now, check out the rest of the Cotton Bowl preview, originally published on December 8.

Can Big Ten powerhouse Ohio State salvage a disappointing end to 2023? After falling short of a return to the College Football Playoff, the No. 7 Buckeyes are headed to the Cotton Bowl Classic to play No. 9 Missouri.

Kickoff for the Cotton Bowl, one of the distinguished New Year’s Six bowls, is scheduled for Dec. 29 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

NCAAF odds have shifted considerably since lines opened. Ohio State’s gone from a 6.5-point favorite to 2.5-point underdogs, a reflection of some key absences on the Buckeyes’ end.

The Buckeyes are also +120 on the moneyline. Missouri, meanwhile, is -2.5 on the point spread and -140 to win outright. The projected total has dropped from 51.5 to 49.

The Cotton Bowl is one of college football’s most famed postseason events, having been held in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex since 1937. It moved to AT&T Stadium, home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys, in 2010. Last season’s Cotton Bowl score saw Tulane beat USC 48-45.

Read on as we break down both college football teams and analyze the Cotton Bowl point spread.

Cotton Bowl Classic

Banner Year Rolls on for Mizzou

Missouri had a breakthrough season, winning 10 college football games and making a New Year’s Six bowl. The Tigers (10-2, 6-2 SEC) scored some impressive wins, beating the likes of Kansas State, Kentucky and Tennessee. They finished second in the SEC West, with their only conference losses coming against LSU and Georgia.

This is the Tigers’ third straight college bowl appearance in four seasons under Eli Drinkwitz and their first double-digit win season since 2014. Last season, they went 6-7 and lost 27-17 to Wake Forest in the Gasparilla Bowl.

Missouri was among the most profitable NCAAF teams for bettors, with an 8-4 record ATS. It was particularly strong in that regard as the season progressed, covering the spread in five of its last six games. As a favorite, the Tigers were 4-3 ATS and 7-0 OU. They also went Over the projected total in eight of their 12 games.

Led by quarterback Brady Cook, Missouri was proficient offensively. It ranked 25th in both yards per game (442.9) and scoring (34.1 PPG). The Tigers scored 30 points or more 10 times, with the exception of a 23-19 victory over Middle Tennessee and a 30-21 loss to Georgia.

In climbing to No. 9 in the AP poll, the Tigers achieved their highest ranking since 2013 (No. 5). They also made the Cotton Bowl that season, beating Oklahoma State 41-31. The Tigers also finished with their highest College Football Playoff ranking (No. 9) since the format was introduced in 2014.

Departures & Injuries

Missouri should have most of its key NCAAF players available, including Cook and running back Cody Schrader. A senior, Schrader rushed for 1,625 yards and 13 touchdowns to win the Burlsworth Trophy, awarded to the nation’s best player who began his Division I career as a walk-on.

Bittersweet Finish for Buckeyes

The Ohio State Buckeyes went 11-1, including 8-1 in Big Ten Conference play. But it was that lone blemish, a 30-24 loss to rival Michigan in the teams’ regular-season finale, that ultimately eliminated them from competing for both a Big Ten title and the national championship.

The Buckeyes were close to perfect otherwise, with marquee wins over Notre Dame and Penn State. They hit double digits in wins for the third straight season under Ryan Day and also climbed to No. 2 in the AP poll before dropping to No. 7.

For most programs, those would be banner-worthy accomplishments. But the expectations are different at Ohio State, one of the country’s true bluebloods. Year after year, it’s NCAA title or bust.

For the most part, Ohio State fared well for bettors. It went 7-4-1 ATS, including 6-2 in its last eight games. But the Buckeyes also went Over the projected total in just three of their nine games, the third-lowest total (25%) in FBS.

Ohio State allowed only 132 points on the 2023 NCAAF schedule, second-fewest in the country behind Michigan (123). Keep that in mind when assessing the Cotton Bowl point spread.

Departures & Injuries

Star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is still undecided whether or not he’ll play in the bowl. Harrison Jr. — the son of NFL Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison — was named a Heisman Trophy finalist after catching 67 passes for 1,237 yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s +20000 to win college football’s most prestigious award, with LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels a heavy -1400 favorite.

The Buckeyes are already sure to be without quarterback Kyle McCord, who plans to transfer after throwing for 3,170 yards and 24 touchdowns. Sophomore Devin Brown may start in McCord’s absence.

With still three weeks until kickoff, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more opt-outs for Ohio State.

What Next for Ryan Day and the Offense?

Ohio State won’t have its full complement of starters, and the Cotton Bowl point spread certainly reflects that. The Buckeyes were favored in every game outside of Michigan, where they closed as a 3-point underdog. They’d probably be favored here as well if not for some key absences.

The Buckeyes finished top-35 in scoring, averaging 32.8 points per game. But without McCord and possibly Harrison Jr., their offense will be significantly handcuffed. That’s a big break for Missouri’s defense.

For college football bowl projections, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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