2023 NFL MVP Odds: You Mean The “Annual Best QB Award?”

No Surprises as Quarterbacks are Heavily Favored to Win

June 7, 2023 194 3 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

2023 NFL MVP Odds: You Mean The “Annual Best QB Award?” — TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP

Patrick Mahomes Leads 2023 NFL MVP Odds
First-Timer: Which Contender Can Win His First NFL MVP?
Mahomes’s Rivals: Which of the Three Could Dethrone Mahomes?
The Party Crashers: Which Longshots Could Contend?

Patrick Mahomes Leads 2023 NFL MVP Odds

NFL quarterbacks typically win the MVP so the best QB gets favored. That’s why the 2023 NFL MVP odds favor Patrick Mahomes (+650) of the Kansas City Chiefs. The reigning MVP also won his second Super Bowl title as his team is again favored to win the Super Bowl (+650) and to finish with the best regular season record (+400). But who else has a shot at this award?

First-Timer: Which Contender Can Win His First NFL MVP?

The Associated Press awards the NFL MVP award, so performance and team records are not the only metric it uses but narrative as well. Sometimes, the novelty of being a first-time winner is enough to propel Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, or Joe Burrow to winning. All three are listed at +800 just behind their budding rival, Mahomes.

Mahomes’s Rivals: Which of the Three Could Dethrone Mahomes?

Hurts is the NFC’s top representative as his Philadelphia Eagles look to stay atop the NFL standings. However, the team has a harder schedule this season so their NFL record could get worse. But if Hurts continues to produce, the media may just pick him.

Allen’s odds have consistently opened next to Mahomes. His stats are less prolific but it’s arguable that he is more valuable to his team than the two-time winner. He does it all for Buffalo as the Bills occasionally beat KC during the regular season while finishing with one of the best NFL records in the league. They have one of the toughest schedules in 2023, however.

And finally, Burrow, owns something Hurts and Allen doesn’t: a win over Mahomes in the playoffs. He’s posted consecutive seasons with a passer rating over 100 and his Bengals will win around 11 to 12 games a season. But unless he can totally outdo Patrick Mahomes in terms of team record or stats, he’ll join Hurts and Allen as runner-ups.

Mahomes’s Rivals: Which of the Three Could Dethrone Mahomes?

Other potential first-timers include Justin Herbert (+1200) and Trevor Lawrence (+1400). The media loves Herbert and he puts up spectacular highlights and lofty passing totals. But the Chargers tend to be inconsistent and have no cupcake of a schedule this year.

Lawrence has an easier schedule with the Jaguars. Like the Eagles last season, Jacksonville could ascend to the top of the NFL standings. They play both South divisions so both he and the team are worth a bet at 14-1 to win the 2023 NFL MVP odds and finish with the best record, respectively.

The Party Crashers: Which Longshots Could Contend?

It would be a pretty unrealistic season if there wasn’t at least one or two teams who surprises everyone. And of course, you can bank on these teams’ quarterbacks to gain some “MVP” talk even if their chances of winning are not as great as the guys above. Justin Fields (+1600) is a hot bet on the 2023 NFL MVP odds right now.

His Bears could be one of the most improved teams for 2023. Their owner, Aaron Rodgers, left the division and they have an easy schedule playing the NFC South while avoiding most of the elite teams outside of Kansas City. But too much money is coming in on Fields and instead, taking a chance on one of the four NFC South quarterbacks could be the “wired” play.

The NFC South is considered the worst division in the NFL right now. And with Tom Brady out of the division, it could get worse. But that’s a lot of real estate for either Derek Carr (+6000) or Carolina’s Bryce Young (+12500) to play around with.

Carr joins New Orleans from Vegas where he took more blame for his coaching staffs’ incompetence, namely on defense. But now the Saints should be more functional with a solid defense and a decent quarterback. They also only play three teams with winning records from 2022.

As for Young, he will be the centerpiece of Carolina’s potential renaissance. This team has a better coach in Frank Reich and a top-10 defense, which helped the team cover nine of its NFL point spreads last year. The team also has a soft schedule. Young listed at +450 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, could be a steal.