2024 NFL Cheat Sheet: Buffalo Bills Stats and Odds

There’s no shame in losing to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs but, after doing so in the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, the Buffalo Bills are looking to finally break through in the AFC and reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993.

The expected 2024 Buffalo Bills stats peg Sean McDermott’s team as a major contender yet again so they’re running out of excuses — and years of Josh Allen at peak performance — as to why they can’t get over the hump and win the conference.

Buffalo Bills At A Glance

Diggs’ Departure Creates Big Hole At Wideout

Of course, the biggest move of the Bills’ offseason was trading star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for a 2nd round pick. The move wasn’t necessarily a huge surprise as Diggs was reported to be disgruntled but it’s still a big deal for a team like Buffalo to ship out a four-time Pro Bowler while still in win-now mode.

It’s only fitting that the NFL schedule has Buffalo going to Houston to play the Texans in Week 5. Also, Gabe Davis has signed with Jacksonville, taking away another Bills weapon.

Buffalo went 11-6 in 2023, just beating out its 10.5 win total which is unchanged for this season even without Diggs. The Bills also lost longtime defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer while letting center Mitch Morse walk as well.

So, Buffalo will look a bit different this season as the Bills try to win their fifth-consectutive AFC East title. They did add Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel at wide receiver but neither guy comes close to matching Diggs’ star-power, athleticism and play-making ability. Buffalo also drafted Keon Coleman out of Florida State in the 2nd round who should immediately slot in as a starter.

On the defensive side of things, the Bills are still a very stout unit that allowed the fourth-fewest points in football a season ago. Secondary could be an issue as Micah Hyde is also a free agent (and may retire).

With all of that turnover, there’s a chance that Buffalo slips in that area. Up front, though, the Bills should be really strong and are in a good position to win 11 or more games again for the fifth year in a row.

Allen Needs To Carry Buffalo

No 2024 Buffalo Bills stats matter more than what Allen does. The Bills will only go as far as Allen will lead them and while their Super Bowl odds have slipped to +1400 after closing at +900 last season, this is still a really good NFL team that should once again win its division. From there, anything can happen in the playoffs.

He’ll need to cut down on the interceptions, though, as he threw a career-high 18 picks in 2023 while tossing 29 touchdowns, a drop of six NFL scores through the air.

He made up for it on the ground, rushing for 15 touchdowns, up from seven in 2022. With Allen, it’s all about decision-making and that could be a bit tougher without Diggs as his safety blanket. At +1400, they’re still a decent pick.

Odds To Win AFC Have Improved

Interestingly, the NFL betting odds for the Bills to win the AFC are betting this season (+750) than they were in 2023 (+900). Naturally, a step back is expected for the Chiefs after they won yet another Super Bowl but it’s not like Mahomes or Travis Kelce or Andy Reid are going anywhere.

They’re Buffalo’s biggest competition along with the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills benefit from arguably being in a weaker division as the Dolphins haven’t shown the ability to play with the big boys and the Jets are a huge wild card.

The Ravens are very dangerous, though, and the addition of Derrick Henry should make a big difference for Baltimore’s offense.

Bills Should Cruise to AFC East Title

As noted above, while the Bills aren’t guaranteed to win the AFC East for a fifth-straight time, the expected 2024 Buffalo Bills stats really like their chances of doing so.

• However, they were +120 favorites last season and are “just” +170 right now with the Jets being given more of a shot in 2024 with a (for now) healthy Aaron Rodgers.

If he is able to play a full season, then the Bills’ streak may be in jeopardy. Buffalo is a mostly intact group that has dominated the division for almost a half-decide so the Bills should get the benefit of the doubt.

Good Value On Buffalo Wins Over

Interestingly, the Bills are +120 to win 11 games or more and eclipse their win total over/under. That’s a really good bet even though Diggs and some defensive stalwarts are gone. They were -140 on over 10.5 wins and +120 on under 10.5 wins in 2023 and now those odds are essentially flipped.

Part of that — and this could be why the Bills’ NFL Super Bowl odds are lower too — is due to Buffalo’s strength of schedule. In addition to the AFC East matchups, they’ll take on the NFC West and AFC South.

Plus, their three other opponents are all Super Bowl contenders in the Chiefs, Lions and Ravens. There aren’t many really bad teams on the slate, maybe besides the Cardinals and Patriots.

Buffalo Should Be In Postseason

While their odds to make the NFL playoffs have gotten worse since they were initially published, the Bills are pretty safely a playoff team at -165 to make and +130 to miss.

• Last year, they were even bigger favorites to do so (-250 to make and +200 to miss) so, with an improved AFC, they aren’t as surefire.

Still, it would be a huge surprise if Buffalo didn’t make the cut.

Take The Over On Allen’s Stats

An interesting season-long bet for Buffalo is for the Bills to lead the NFL in wins (+1500). They’re tied with the Eagles and Dolphins for the eighth-worst odds but at that value, it’s not a bad flier to take. Buffalo has an elite quarterback and a talented roster so them going like 14-3 or 13-4 isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility.

Allen’s over/under numbers are pretty low considering how big of a season he had in 2023.

• His passing yards total is 3,700.5 yards (-110 both directions) and his passing touchdowns are 27.5 (+110 over and -130 under).

He has thrown for over 4,200 yards and 29 or more touchdowns in each of his four seasons so the overs are good bets. Were he to get hurt and miss a few NFL games, though, those lofty numbers may not be reachable. To his credit, Allen is a model of durability, playing 16 or more games each year since 2019.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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