2024 NFL Season: Josh Jacobs Season-Long Odds

Jacobs Could Have Big Year In Green Bay

After the Las Vegas Raiders — who he was drafted by and played the first five seasons of his NFL career with — decided not to bring Josh Jacobs back this offseason, there was understandably plenty of interest in the two-time Pro Bowler.

He wound up signing a four-year deal with the Green Bay Packers to essentially replace Aaron Jones, now with the division rival Minnesota Vikings. The 2024 Josh Jacobs season odds are pretty mixed as to how he’ll fare with the Packers.

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It’s always tough to prognosticate how a running back coming off a down season, one in which he missed the last four games because of a quad injury, will bounce back particularly when he’s with a new NFL team and offensive system.

Jacobs had a career year in 2022 before coming back down to earth in 2023 prior to his NFL injury so it’s questionable just what the 26-year-old will bring to the table as he splits time with A.J. Dillon. That’s what the NFL point spreads on Jacobs are grappling with.

Let’s take a look at Jacobs’ awards and statistical odds for this season to gauge what may be worth betting on for him:

Offensive Player of the Year: +10000 / MVP: +30000

Yeah, not a big surprise here that the 2024 Josh Jacobs season odds aren’t bullish on Jacobs’ chances to take home either the Offensive Player of the Year or MVP awards. He did finish 5th in Offensive Player of the Year voting in 2022 but received no votes amid his down 2023 campaign.

So, there is some precedent for Jacobs being in the mix for what is essentially the best non-quarterback position player award. But, at +10000, it doesn’t look likely.

The same goes for NFL MVP as he’s a massive +30000 longshot. Even at that crazy value, it isn’t worth a bet.

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NFL Rushing Yards Leader: +1400

Jacobs has a much better shot to lead the NFL in rushing yards which he did in 2022 with 1,653 yards. He has the eighth-best odds to do so in 2024, behind the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson. He has shown in the past that he can produce at the same level of the other top backs in the NFL.

The concern for the 2024 Josh Jacobs season odds is that he’s coming off a leg injury and will be in a split-carry situation with Dillon. Sharing time with Dillon didn’t stop Jones from being one of the more consistent running backs in the NFL in Green Bay.

However, Jones’ high rushing yards in an NFL season with the Packers was 1,121 in 2022, not nearly enough to be among the league leaders.

Still, at +1400, Jacobs is pretty good value as someone who has very recently been the league leader in rushing. He’s definitely worth a bet at that value even though there is some uncertainty over just how he’ll be used in Green Bay.

The good thing is that Matt LaFleur is one of the most innovative offensive minds in the NFL and the Packers, behind the impressive Jordan Love under center, are on the rise.

950.5 Rushing Yards: Over (+110)/Under (-140)

Jacobs has ran for over 1,000 yards in three of his five NFL seasons. He only got to 805 yards in 2023 but that was with missing the final four NFL games of the season so, if he stayed healthy, it’s very likely that he would have eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark once again. With that in mind, his over/under seems a little low and being able to get the over at +110 is awesome value.

Of course, you’ll need to consider the fact that he’s sharing time with Dillon and may not get as many touches as he was used to with the Raiders.

By all accounts, Jacobs’ quad is healthy and he’s ready to go for the season but you can’t necessarily fault the Packers if they want to take things a little slow with him early on in 2024. The over is a good bet but it’s far from a sure thing.

7.5 Rushing Touchdowns: Over (-115)/Under (-115)

Touchdowns are notoriously tough to predict in the NFL, especially for running backs whose score totals are heavily dependent on the opportunities they get within the red zone. The NFL point spreads are expecting a low year for Jacobs with respect to touchdowns.

He only had six in 2023 after scoring 12 times in 2022, nine times in 2021 and 12 times in 2020. Again, if Jacobs stayed healthy last season, he likely would have had eight or more touchdowns.

Last year, the Packers only had 10 total rushing touchdowns as a team, with Jones and Dillon each scoring twice, Love four times and wide receiver Jayden Reed twice.

Look for that number to rise in 2024 with Jacobs, a strong runner who can thrive in goal-to-go spots, in the mix. The Packers got a ton of NFL scores through the air with Love but you can easily see LaFleur try to use his new weapon more in the red zone.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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