2024 NFL Season: Justin Herbert Season Props and Odds

Big Bounceback Expected For Herbert

When Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s 2023 season ended early due to a broken finger, it was the latest disappointment in a young career that has shown incredible promise but has yet to result in any playoff wins.

Before the injury, the Chargers weren’t looking like a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination but Herbert was putting together a solid campaign. The 2024 Justin Herbert season odds are expecting the gunslinger from Oregon to build off that partial year and possibly have his best campaign as a pro.

Before suffering his injury in Week 14, Herbert had 20 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions despite having an injury-ravaged group of skill-position players that Herbert had to mostly carry on his own.

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Now, the task will be more challenging because Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears, Mike Williams signed with the Jets, and Austin Ekeler is with the Commanders. Still, Herbert’s NFL MVP odds are somewhat realistic as he adjusts to having Jim Harbaugh as his new head coach.

Herbert also now has to deal with a plantar fascia injury to his right foot that he just suffered in training camp. He should be able to return for Week 1, but it’s an unfortunate injury for a guy who simply can’t miss any of the regular season if his team is going to have any chance at being competitive.

Operating on the assumption he’ll have a full season, let’s take a look at some of Herbert’s odds:

Offensive Player of the Year: +5000 / MVP: +2000

Even though Offensive Player of the Year tends to be more a position player award than a quarterback award, the 2024 Justin Herbert season odds are giving him a shot at it.

He has yet to receive an OPOY vote in his career and, last season, Lamar Jackson was the signal-caller who finished the highest in the OPOY voting (fourth) despite being named NFL MVP. So, OPOY would be a tough one for Herbert, even if he has a career year.

He has a much better shot with MVP. In 2023, four of the top five vote-getters were quarterbacks. Herbert actually finished ninth in MVP voting in 2022 with his 4,739-yard and 25-touchdown campaign.

He’ll likely need to eclipse those numbers to have a chance, considering how loaded the quarterback competition around the league is. Remember, he has to compete with Patrick Mahomes in his own division.

Those Chargers-Chiefs games on the 2024 NFL schedule will be big opportunities for Herbert to shine against the league’s best player. Also, the Chargers play the Bengals and Ravens in Weeks 11 and 12, giving Herbert more chances to match up head-to-head with other MVP options.

Comeback Player of the Year: +4000

Now, this is an intriguing possibility. Herbert is not only coming off last year’s finger injury but is dealing with a foot injury right now, so the potential narrative for his Comeback Player of the Year candidacy may be especially strong.

Aaron Rodgers (+125) and Joe Burrow (+250) have better odds than the 2024 Justin Herbert season odds but getting Herbert at +4000 is really good value.

Having Harbaugh as his coach should be really good for Herbert’s development under center and Los Angeles should just be a lot better coached in general. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing to expect a big resurgence in his career, considering that he’s still just 26 years old.

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Regular Season Passing Touchdown Leader: +4000

22.5 Passing Touchdowns: Over (+100)/Under (-125)

The same is true for the season-long awards in terms of Herbert having to really out-do some of the other top passers in football.

He probably won’t be leading nearly as dynamic an offense as that of the Chiefs or Ravens, but he likely will be relied on to throw a lot, which, naturally, should lead to a lot of touchdowns. Passing scores are very variable, though, so they are hard to predict.

He probably won’t be close to the league leaders but +4000 is +4000 so you get what you pay for.

His personal passing touchdowns over is very low, probably hinging on injury concerns. Herbert did only have 20 passing TDs in 13 games in 2023 before his injury but things should open up a lot more for him without much of an established ground game. Getting Herbert at even-money on the NFL lines to reach 23 scores is a smart bet.

Regular Season Passing Yards Leader: +3000

3,600.5 Passing Yards: Over (-110)/Under (-110)

Winning the passing yards title is a bit more in Herbert’s alley. He threw over 4,000 yards each season from 2020 through 2022, tossing over 5,000 yards in his Pro Bowl year in 2021. So, he definitely has the ability to be among the league leaders in yards.

He just needs to get the opportunity and will need to develop connections with less-established receivers now that Allen and Williams are elsewhere. DJ Chark and Joshua Palmer figure to step up into bigger roles and 2nd round pick Ladd McConkey should be a nice weapon in the slot.

That’s why Herbert’s passing yards over at -110 is also a great take. Essentially, it’s a bet on him playing at least 15 games or so. He was on pace to easily throw for over 3,600 yards in 2023 and should do so again in 2024 but it’s impossible to predict injury.

His current foot ailment shouldn’t sidetrack him much, either. This guy is too good to not throw for 4,000+ yards if he can stay on the field.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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