2024 NFL Season: Las Vegas Raiders Series Preview & Odds
Lots of Questions for The Raiders
Despite playing much better in the second half of the 2023 NFL season under interim (and now permanent) head coach Antonio Pierce, the Las Vegas Raiders still went just 8-9 and missed the postseason.
Now, Pierce is fully in control as the Raiders choose between Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell for their starting quarterback job as they try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2021.
The 2024 Las Vegas Raiders stats will depend a lot on whether they make the right call under center as they to disprove some rather pessimistic preseason prognostications.
At A Glance
| Odds to Win | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
| Super Bowl | +3000 | +10000 |
| Conference | +1500 | +5000 |
| Division | +350 | +900 |
| Regular Season Win Total | 6.5 (o-160, u+130) | 6.5 (o-145, u+115) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +300, No -400 | Yes +275, No -350 |
Las Vegas Gambling on Unproven Quarterbacks
Of course, the two biggest moves the Raiders made this offseason were the decisions to let Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Jacobs leave for the Rams and Packers, respectively.
Las Vegas also signed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who should help the defensive front a lot. However, as the 2024 NFL predictions reflect, their quarterback and running back rooms — bolstered with Minshew II and Alexander Mattison — leave a lot to be desired, as does their offensive line and wideout groups.
Their win total over/under is exactly the same as it was a year ago — 6.5 wins — and while the Raiders easily hit the over in 2023 by going 8-9, it may be harder to do so this time around with lots of uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball.
While Minshew II may have the inside track for the starting quarterback job, he isn’t exactly the most inspiring choice even though he was good for the Colts last year.
Davante Adams is still as good as ever but he, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers are the only legitimate pass-catching threats that Las Vegas has. It’s nice to have two good tight ends yet it will still be hard for the Raiders to make up for the loss of Jacobs.
And if the offensive line continues to be shaky, then things will get even more difficult.
Super Bowl is Long Shot for Raiders
While Super Bowl LVIII was in Vegas last February, that may be the last time the Lombardi Trophy heads to the desert in awhile.
The expected 2024 Las Vegas Raiders stats make it tough to imagine that the Raiders will be able to contend for a title with so much uncertainty at such a key position and with a lot of roster turnover. Their odds have shrunk from +3000 at the open to +10000 now, which is even lower than the +7500 Super Bowl odds they had a season ago.
If O’Connell wins the job and can get the most out of Adams, Meyers and the tight ends — and the running back combo of Zamir White and Mattison is able to more than replace Jacobs’ production — Las Vegas could be a good team. But, there are so many great squads in the AFC that it’s hard to expect much from the Raiders.
AFC is Loaded
The Raiders were +4000 to win the AFC in 2023 and now they’re +5000, showing how their low Super Bowl odds extend to the conference as well. It would be a tall task for Las Vegas to hang around with the likes of the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Bengals and Dolphins or even the Texans and Jets.
There are just a lot of very talented teams in the conference right now and many of the contenders are deeper, on both sides of the ball, than the Raiders and they don’t have to deal with nearly as much turnover.
West is Kansas City’s Division to Lose
You can’t talk about the AFC West without focusing on the Chiefs who are big favorites to win their ninth-consecutive division title. When you think about it, that run is remarkable and it’s largely due to how non-competitive the rest of the division (between the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos) has mostly been for the last decade.
To the Raiders’ credit, they were +2000 to win the division last year and are “only” +900 now, which is a big improvement. However, unless Kansas City starts to show signs of letting up, or maybe suffers some big injuries, the Raiders (and the rest of the group) won’t have much of a chance.
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Raiders’ Schedule Could Make Win Over Possible
The Raiders’ win total over/under is unchanged from a year ago, remaining at 6.5 wins even though Las Vegas comfortably beat that total by 1.5 wins in 2023. The odds are pretty juiced toward the under in 2024 at +115 with the expected 2024 Las Vegas Raiders stats likely not going to be impressive enough to overcome a tough schedule.
Outside of the division, the four matchups against Denver and Los Angeles are critical. The Raiders’ easier games are against the Panthers and Saints with teams like the Rams, Falcons, Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Jaguars expected to compete for playoff spots. There aren’t many gimmes on the docket for Las Vegas.
Playoffs Would be Huge Success
At +400 to make the playoffs before last season, the Raiders weren’t expected to come close to qualifying for the postseason, yet they came up just two games short.
That number has jumped up to a much more reasonable +275 for the 2024 campaign, which feels like a fair figure. It will be a very tough ask for the Raiders to finish ahead of so many of the other good AFC teams but with almost half the conference having the ability to make the postseason now, the math isn’t as difficult for Las Vegas as it may seem.
Raiders Have Disaster Potential
With that said, the Raiders have the eighth-highest odds to lose the most NFL games this season (+1200). With an unsettled quarterback situation, lots of roster changes, a new full-time head coach and a star receiver who could conceivably ask for a mid-season trade if things aren’t looking good, it’s easy to envision a scenario in which Las Vegas completely bottoms out.
However, if things go well, the Raiders’ best chance for a major season-long award is Adams winning Offensive Player of the Year (+4000). He’s clearly Las Vegas’ top offensive weapon and if they’re going to be better than expected, it likely would be because Adams and whoever the Raiders’ quarterback is, are making a strong connection.
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