2024 NFL Season: Offensive Player of the Year Future Odds
Christian McCaffrey Leads The Pack
The battle for the 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year should be a fascinating one based on the 2024 NFL OPOY odds, with each of the top candidates having a strong narrative supporting them.
You could go with reigning winner Christian McCaffrey as he leads an incredible San Francisco offense, Tyreek Hill as the catalyst of an explosive yet sometimes disappointing Dolphins unit, Justin Jefferson as the best pass-catcher in the game, or even CeeDee Lamb as the league’s defending receptions champ.
You could even go off the board, so to speak, and look at a guy like Breece Hall with the Jets or any of the top quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.
Mahomes is the last quarterback to win the award, doing so in 2018, as voters have made it relatively clear that this is more of a non-quarterback type of award, with the rare exception being made. Don’t get these odds and the NFL MVP odds conflated, as it’s easy to make that kind of mistake.
Let’s run through some of the best options based on the odds:
Christian McCaffrey: +700
Unsurprisingly, the best 2024 NFL OPOY odds belong to McCaffrey, last year’s winner, who is on a fresh extension with a loaded 49ers team. McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards in 2023, caught 67 passes, and scored 21 total touchdowns.
He also had the most touches and yards from scrimmage in the league. While Kyle Shanahan may not want to continue to use him at such a high level once again, McCaffrey has shown that he can handle a heavy workload as one of the most versatile weapons in football. You can’t go wrong betting on him.
Tyreek Hill: +800
Hill followed up an incredible 2022 campaign with an even better 2023, catching an identical 119 passes in just 16 games (as opposed to 17 the year prior) with a league-leading 1,799 receiving yards and 13 receiving touchdowns. He averaged a league-high 11.2 yards per game and is always heavily targeted by Tua Tagovailoa, forming an elite one-two tandem with Jaylen Waddle.
As Hill finished second in the voting to McCaffrey last season, it makes sense for him to be at +800. He, too, is very durable and can run circles around any defender, even though he turned 30 a few months ago.
Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb: +900
But, at wide receiver, Jefferson and Lamb may be the NFL best bets. Jefferson was “limited” to 68 catches and 1,074 yards in 10 games — due to hamstring and chest injuries — but was still dominant while on the field. However, he did that damage with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, and now it’ll either be journeyman Sam Darnold or unproven rookie J.J. McCarthy. Look for Jefferson to continue to get enormous amounts of targets but it could be a risk to rely on him with an unsettled quarterback situation.
Lamb doesn’t have that problem after catching a league-high 135 passes in 2023 for 1,749 yards, only a few short of Hill’s mark. For all of the criticisms of Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in the playoffs, they know how to feed Lamb during the regular season.
He should be able to once again have a big year. He was third in the Offensive Player of the Year voting in 2023 and is a worthwhile take at +900.
Ja’Marr Chase: +1000
Chase’s numbers from last season aren’t really close to that of Hill, Jefferson or Lamb’s but it’s important to remember that he only had Joe Burrow for 10 games so the 2024 NFL OPOY odds might be undervaluing him a bit. Talent-wise, Chase is in that top group of pass-catchers. The question for him is how healthy Burrow is and if he’ll get the targets to compete with those elite guys.
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall: +1600
We know how running backs have been devalued around football, but if any backs can contend with McCaffrey for the Offensive Player of the Year, it would be Robinson and Hall.
Robinson is expected to be a much bigger focal point of the Falcons’ offense under new head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. And, with Cousins behind center, the offense should be able to open up and thrive. In addition to rushing for almost 1,000 years in his rookie year, he also caught 58 passes as a useful weapon in the passing game.
Along with Garrett Wilson, Hall has pretty good odds for the award. He, too, was right under 1,000 rushing yards and was heavily used as a pass-catcher, notching 76 catches on 95 targets. Hall may not be as heavily used in the passing game with a healthy Aaron Rodgers but he should be among the NFL stat leaders in rushing now that he’s a full year removed from a torn ACL. He is a legit talent and the Jets’ improved offensive line should be huge for him.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson: +3300
Even though he had his highest interception rate since 2018, Allen put together another impressive campaign last season, throwing for over 4,300 yards while rushing for 524 more with 15 touchdowns on the ground. He finished fifth in MVP voting and sixth in Offensive Player of the Year voting, falling behind Jackson who won NFL MVP and was fourth in Offensive Player of the Year voting thanks to having an incredible season through the air on the ground.
Their respective high finishes show that it’s possible for a quarterback to win Offensive Player of the Year but it would take a perfect year as well as down campaigns from the other top non-quarterback candidates. Still, at +3300, neither of these guys is a bad bet.
Patrick Mahomes: +5000
Mahomes didn’t even garner a single Offensive Player of the Year vote last year because he was rather human during the regular season before his usual postseason heroics.
He did win Offensive Player of the Year in 2018 in his first season as a starter — the 50-touchdown-pass year — and then finished fourth in 2019, second in 2020 and second in 2022. I wouldn’t put it past him to bounce back and be a serious contender for it again in 2024 and, at +5000, even a flier on him provides incredible value.
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