2024 NFL Season: Trevor Lawrence Season Props and Odds
Lawrence Is Poised For Big Year
Career trajectories aren’t always linear, especially for quarterbacks, and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence experienced that first-hand in 2023. After a huge 2022 campaign in which he led the Jaguars to an AFC South title and finished seventh in NFL MVP voting, he threw almost twice as many interceptions in 2023 and Jacksonville just missed out on a postseason berth.
Now, the 2024 Trevor Lawrence season odds are expecting big things for the fourth-year signal-caller who is still 24 years old.
Lawrence has led Jacksonville to winning seasons in consecutive years for just the third time in franchise history. Now, he needs to take that next step toward being a consistent starter who can bring Jacksonville back to the top of an improved division that features good Texans and Colts teams.
It doesn’t help matters that their 2024 NFL schedule is a very tough one — featuring games against the Packers, Lions, Dolphins, Bills, Eagles and Jets — but, if Lawrence plays up to his potential, it shouldn’t matter.
So, let’s see how Vegas expects Lawrence’s season to go with an eye toward his status in award races and his odds to hit certain statistical thresholds:
Offensive Player of the Year: +8000 / MVP: +2800
As Offensive Player of the Year is not an award that quarterbacks tend to win, it’s not too surprising to see the 2024 Trevor Lawrence season odds here being so low. Lawrence has never received an OPOY vote and it would be hard for him to finish highly here because of how many elite wide receivers who tend to win OPOY.
That isn’t to say he has no chance to win it but it may not be the smartest bet. Last season, for example, Lamar Jackson was the higher quarterback finisher in the OPOY voting and he finished in fourth despite winning NFL MVP. Now, that’s an award for which Lawrence has significantly better odds and is one that he could realistically win.
- In 2022, Lawrence finished seventh in MVP voting and, last year, four of the top five finishers were quarterbacks. It’s clear that voters think of MVP as a quarterback award so, at +2800, Lawrence is a really good value here. There are a bunch of quarterbacks ahead of him odds-wise but Lawrence is a little undervalued because of his, and the Jaguars’, disappointing year in 2023.
Regular Season Passing Touchdown Leader: +3000
- Lawrence was way down the passing touchdown leaderboards in 2023, tossing just 21 scores — tied for 15th-most in the NFL — so it makes sense why he is only +3000 to win the passing touchdown crown in 2024.
The Jaguars’ balanced offense doesn’t totally lead itself to Lawrence throwing for a ton of scores. However, with the variability involved in touchdowns from year to year, Lawrence should certainly throw more TDs this season.
But, taking him to beat out Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa and others in this category seems a little bit out there.
Regular Season Passing Yards Leader: +2500
If the Jaguars are going to return to the 2024 NFL playoffs, it’ll likely be because Lawrence returned to his 2022 form. That season, he threw for over 4,100 yards and 25 touchdowns. Still, though, he was just ninth in the NFL in passing yards.
So, it’ll be an uphill battle for him to climb with respect to outgunning a bunch of elite quarterbacks who have the types of deep threats which allow them to quickly rack up yards. That’s not how Jacksonville’s wide receiver group is constituted.
Again, Lawrence winning here would be hard but if there are some injuries to key competitor quarterbacks, Doug Pederson takes off the training wheels and first round pick Brian Thomas Jr. hits the ground running in the NFL, then a case could be made for Lawrence to sneak into the top-five. For him to finish in first, a lot would need to go his way.
3,800.5 Passing Yards: Over (+100)/Under (-125)
The 2024 Trevor Lawrence season odds surprisingly aren’t expecting much in the way of passing yards. In fact, based on the line and odds, he would hit his passing yards over just by replicating what he did in 2022 and 2023. So, the over here at even-money seems to be a smart pick.
Granted, an injury could derail this bet but if you just look at what Lawrence has done for the past two seasons, the overall pro-passing trend in the NFL and the weapons he has around him, there isn’t a great reason as to why Lawrence would dip by over 200 yards down under 3,800 passing yards.
22.5 Passing Touchdowns: Over (+110)/Under (-135)
While notching 23 passing touchdowns would be a slight uptick for Lawrence from 2023, it’s still a pretty low total all things considered. The Jaguars’ NFL team stats could dictate how many opportunities he gets for passing scores yet that’s only a shade under 1.5 touchdowns per game on a 16-game basis.
Lawrence should definitely be able to outdo that number even if he isn’t able to fully regain his form from 2022.
For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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