2024 NFL Season: Tua Tagovailoa Season Props and Odds

Big Things Expected For Tua And Miami

Tua led NFL in passing yards 2023
Injury concerns remain for Tagovailoa’s 2024 season
Strong potential to lead in passing yards

August 12, 2024 81 4 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

2024 NFL Season: Tua Tagovailoa Season Props and Odds — Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

Offensive Player of the Year: +8000 / MVP: +2200
25.5 Passing Touchdowns: Over (-110)/Under (-110)
4,100.5 Passing Yards: Over (-110)/Under (-110)

While the 2023 Miami Dolphins season ended with a thud in a Wild Card Round dismantling by the Kansas City Chiefs, expectations are high in 2024 for the team and its star quarterback who just signed a huge extension.

As Tua goes, so do the Dolphins. He had a great year in 2023, leading the NFL in passing yards, making his first Pro Bowl and finishing fifth in the Comeback Player of the Year voting. So, the 2024 Tua Tagovailoa season odds are expecting big things.

Granted, injuries are always a major concern for Tagovailoa because 2023 was the only time where he played more than 17 games. As you’d imagine, staying on the field is enormously important for the NFL prop bets on the market.

For most quarterbacks, durability isn’t a top-of-mind issue when considering these bets. Tagovailoa is not one of those quarterbacks.

Let’s run through the odds for Tagovailoa to win a season-long award for the first time as an NFLer and for him to possibly repeat as a full-season statistical champ:

Offensive Player of the Year: +8000 / MVP: +2200

The 2024 Tua Tagovailoa season odds don’t give him much of a chance to be named the 2024 Offensive Player of the Year. But that isn’t too much of a surprise considering how that award tends not to go to quarterbacks.

The last signal-caller to win it was Patrick Mahomes in 2018 as it has shuffled between wide receivers and running backs for the past five seasons. That’s not to say quarterbacks can’t win it but it isn’t very likely.

While Tagovailoa is a relative longshot to be named MVP, it’s not as out there as you may think.

He was ninth in MVP voting in 2022 and that was even despite missing four games due to injury. It’s easy to imagine a scenario in which he throws for as many yards this year as he did in 2023 while cutting down on his interceptions.

In that case, he would likely be among the league’s best quarterbacks, and, depending on how the Dolphins do as a team, he’d be right in the MVP mix.

Regular Season Passing Touchdown Leader: +1600

25.5 Passing Touchdowns: Over (-110)/Under (-110)

The NFL betting lines don’t love the idea of Tagovailoa winning the NFL touchdown race. He has yet to throw more than 30 touchdowns in any season and, typically, something in the mid-30s or low-40s is needed to have the most passing touchdowns in the league.

While Tagovailoa should get the chance to throw enough to be among the league leaders in passing yards — we’ll get to that later — Miami’s strong rushing game makes it difficult for that to be true concerning touchdowns.

But, if you wanted to bet on the upside of any young quarterback in the league, Tagovailoa is a good guy to back. He’s incredibly talented and has one of the best wideout duos (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) and offensive coaches (Mike McDaniel). So, it’s realistic to picture him turning in a 30+ touchdown campaign.

Another good bet is for him to eclipse the 26-touchdown mark at -110 to the over. He had 29 passing scores last season and 25 in his injury-shortened campaign the year before.

So, on paper without injuries, he should be at least at that figure again. If he doesn’t get to 26, it’s likely because he missed some time. The 2024 Tua Tagovailoa season odds reflect that possibility.

Regular Season Passing Yards Leader: +800

4,100.5 Passing Yards: Over (-110)/Under (-110)

Passing yards are where Tagovailoa can shine. As noted above, he led the NFL in air yards in 2023 with 4,624, many due to the incredible yards-after-catch abilities of Hill. For Tagovailoa, though, how he gets his yards doesn’t matter.

At +800, he’s a good pick to repeat as the NFL’s yards leader because his team only got more explosive with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. Tagovailoa has a lot of great targets he can turn to.

He’s tied with Jared Goff for the fourth-best odds to lead the league in passing yards and, frankly, that feels like a bit of an undervalue.

The NFL game scores for the Dolphins show how dynamic this offense is and Tagovailoa is right in the middle as he effectively churns through yardage by just getting the ball to his playmakers and letting them do their thing.

While a 4,100.5-yard over/under is pretty high, considering that Tagovailoa overshot that number significantly in 2023 bodes very well for his chances to surpass 4,100.5 yards yet again.

McDaniel’s offense is pass-first with an emphasis on the Dolphins’ receivers getting out in space, which tends to result in huge yardage totals because of how athletic they are.

With that understanding, the over is the right call because betting on the under is essentially a bet on a Tagovailoa injury and, of course, that’s very hard to predict with any level of certainty.

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