49ers, Lions Teams to Beat in Top-Heavy NFC

2024 NFC Champion Expert Pick: Can Anyone Unseat San Francisco?

At +550, Detroit is widely seen as the biggest threat to San Francisco.
The 49ers are projected to secure 11.5 wins.
Detroit has the fourth-shortest Super Bowl odds at +1200.

August 14, 2024 49 4 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

49ers, Lions Teams to Beat in Top-Heavy NFC — Photo by Point Spreads

Team to Beat
Long Time Coming
Favorites or the Field?

History isn’t necessarily on the San Francisco 49ers’ side in their chase for another Super Bowl trip. No team has won back-to-back NFC titles since the 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks. Each of the last four years has featured a different champion.

Things change rapidly in the NFL. Projecting how teams may perform from one year to the next is generally an exercise in frustration. Nevertheless, as another NFL season fast approaches, the pecking order atop the NFC remains essentially unchanged.

The 49ers remain prohibitive favorites to repeat, carrying +250 odds to return to the Super Bowl.
At +550, Detroit is widely seen as the biggest threat to San Francisco.

Philadelphia (+600), Dallas (+700), and Green Bay (+800) round out the top five. In all, eight NFL teams are priced at 15/1 or better.

What can bettors expect? Let’s break down the favorites and give our 2024 NFC champion expert pick.

Team to Beat

Another big season awaits San Francisco. At least, that’s what recent history tells us. The San Francisco 49ers have reached the NFC title game in four of the last five years, including Super Bowl appearances in 2019 and 2023.

It only makes sense they’re the betting favorites. Last year’s 49ers ranked top 5 in scoring offense and defense, and essentially, the same core returns to build off that success.

Brock Purdy, oft-maligned as a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system, gained invaluable experience with his performance against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII (23 of 38, 255 yards, 1 TD).

Purdy’s supporting cast is mostly the same, though the 49ers and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk remain apart on an extension. Aiyuk, 26, is coming off his second straight 1,000-yard season, recording 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns.

He’s entering the final year of his rookie deal and is looking for a big payday. Regardless of whether that happens, the 49ers are poised to make a run deep in the National Football League playoffs.

Oddsmakers are understandably bullish, projecting the 49ers for 11.5 wins. They’re also +600 to win the Super Bowl, with two-time defending champion Kansas City (+500) the only team holding better odds.

The San Francisco #49ers have met Brandon Aiyuk’s demands of Annual Salary (near $28M avg), per source.
The hold up I’m told is:
Amount of years & guaranteed $ on the deal. #Niners want to give Aiyuk a 3Yr extension (4yrs total), BA wants a 4Yr extension (5yrs total). #FTTB pic.twitter.com/NPnXnv83ST
— 49ers & NFL News 24/7 (@49ersSportsTalk) August 14, 2024

Long Time Coming

The Lions were a popular pick this time last year, and they validated the beliefs of many by reaching the NFC title game. However, a second-half collapse—fueled by head coach Dan Campbell’s overly aggressive decision-making —resulted in a disheartening loss to San Francisco.

Can the Lions take the next step? It won’t be easy, though oddsmakers are forecasting big things for Campbell and Co.

Detroit is projected for 10.5 wins and has the fourth-shortest Super Bowl odds at +1200.

Assuming they can stay healthy, the Lions have a strong foundation in place. Jared Goff threw 30 touchdowns and won 12 NFL games while completing 67.3% of his passes last season, and if not for a few ill-timed coaching decisions, they probably would have made the Super Bowl instead of San Francisco.

The Lions were the most profitable team from a betting perspective, going an NFL-best 14-6 against the spread for a cover rate of 70%. Per NFL football lines, Kansas City (65%) was the only other team at 65% or better.

Bettors would be wise to back them again.

Favorites or the Field?

If not the 49ers or Lions, then who? Good question.

Again, fortunes swing so wildly from year to year that predicting the NFC champion before Week 1 is often a fruitless experiment.

Philadelphia (+600) looks primed to bounce back from its late-season collapse, with Pro Bowler Saquon Barkley now in the fold at running back. Dallas (+700) remains uber-talented, though it’s becoming increasingly difficult to trust the Dallas Cowboys to go anywhere come January.

They’re coming up on 30 years since their last appearance in the NFC championship game. Green Bay (+800) will be a trendy pick, similar to the 2023 Lions, but that may be asking too much of Jordan Love.

Can we really expect the Packers to go from wild card to Super Bowl in the span of 12 months? Technically, anything’s possible.

There’s a big drop-off in the odds after Green Bay.

Atlanta is next in line at +1300, followed by Los Angeles and Chicago at +1500. Seattle (+2800) is the only other team priced better than 30/1.

Nobody expects the Bears to compete atop the conference, though they offer immense potential because of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

The No. 1 overall pick was impressive in his preseason debut against Buffalo, completing 4 of 7 passes for 95 yards for a rating of 101.8 per NFL stats. They’re in a similar boat to last season’s Packers because of their up-and-coming quarterback.

Be sure to keep that in mind when assessing our 2024 NFC champion expert pick.

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