49ers vs Browns Betting Odds: Watson’s Health Casting Doubts on Cleveland
San Francisco has gone from 1.5- to 8.5-point fav in wake of injury
The San Francisco 49ers will look to maintain their perfect start when they visit the Cleveland Browns Sunday in Week 6. While Cleveland has one of the NFL’s top defenses, it could be without quarterback Deshaun Watson because of a shoulder injury.
The betting public is going heavy on San Francisco in wake of Watson’s injury, as the 49ers are currently listed as 7-point favorites (-112) on the road. The 49ers are also -400 on the moneyline, while Cleveland is +8.5 on the spread and +320 to win outright. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 41.5 to 37.
Can the 49ers take care of business? Or are they ripe for an upset? We dive into the 49ers vs Browns betting odds and break down the matchup in our NFL game preview.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns 
Day/Time:
Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium; Cleveland
Streaming: Fox
Betting Trends
The San Francisco 49ers are 4-1 against the spread this season and 13-3 over their last 16 NFL games. The 49ers have also hit the Over in three of their previous four games. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns are 2-2 ATS this season. The total has gone Under in nine of Cleveland’s last 11 games, including six in a row at home. It’s also gone Under in the previous five meetings between these NFL teams. That’s important to remember when assessing the 49ers vs Browns betting odds.
Easy Does It
Are the San Francisco 49ers the NFL’s team to beat? It’s entirely possible. The 49ers are 5-0 — one of two undefeated teams remaining — after smacking the Dallas Cowboys 42-10 on Sunday Night Football. A 3.5-point favorite, San Francisco intercepted Dak Prescott three times along the way to an easy cover, its third in five games on the NFL schedule.
Alone atop the NFC West, the 49ers are +175 to win the NFC and have leapfrogged the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles as a +375 favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII. That’s up from +900 in the preseason.
The 49ers seem equipped to stay there. Need proof? Start with the emergence of Brock Purdy. At age 23, the former seventh-rounder went from Mr. Irrelevant to a bona fide star. He’s completed 72.1% of his passes (second highest in the NFL) and has yet to throw an interception across his first 136 attempts in 2023.
As such, Purdy’s done the unthinkable by thrusting himself into the conversation for NFL Most Valuable Player. Oddsmakers have boosted him to +700 for MVP, tied for second on the board behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa.
Purdy has also received plenty of help from running back Christian McCaffrey. The NFL’s leading rusher (510 yards), McCaffrey, has scored at least one touchdown in a franchise-record 14 consecutive games. That ties Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith for the most consecutive games with one or more touchdowns (including playoffs) since at least 1990. Unsurprisingly, McCaffrey is a +200 favorite to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Notably, the 49ers rank near the top of the NFL in most statistical categories on offense, including yards (2,013, third) and points per game (33.4, second). They’ve scored at least 30 points in their first five games this NFL season and in nine of the last 11 dating to 2022.
Watson’s Status a Mystery
The Cleveland Browns continue to deal with uncertainty surrounding quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson didn’t practice again Wednesday with a bruised right shoulder, leaving his status for Sunday in doubt. Although he had been medically cleared, Watson did not play in Cleveland’s last game before the bye, a 28-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Oct. 1. Instead, it was rookie fifth-rounder Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who debuted poorly with three interceptions.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski said this week that veteran P.J. Walker has moved ahead of Thompson-Robinson on Cleveland’s depth chart. Still, it doesn’t offer much encouragement, especially against San Francisco. Watson has completed 63.7% of his passes for four touchdowns but has also been sacked 12 times in three games. He’s currently listed as questionable.
Fueled by one of the NFL’s best defenses, Cleveland is 2-2. The Browns are allowing the fewest yards per game (196.8) in the league and the second-fewest points per game (15.0), trailing only San Francisco (13.6). Myles Garrett, the team leader with 5.5 sacks, is currently +300 to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year, tied for second on the board behind Dallas’ Micah Parsons (+225).
Oddsmakers are bit optimistic of Cleveland. In addition to being priced at -135 to make the NFL playoffs, the Browns are also +275 to win the AFC North. That said, to cash in, they’ll need Watson healthy. That hasn’t happened yet. Be sure to monitor Watson’s status when analyzing the 49ers vs Browns odds.
Handicapping the Game
Cleveland has the playmakers on defense to slow down San Francisco. But how much can be expected of the Browns’ defense if Watson doesn’t play? They can only hold down Purdy, McCaffrey, and Co. for so long.
The NFL point spread has already jumped from 1.5 to 7 in favor of San Francisco, and it may continue to grow if and when Watson is finally ruled out for Sunday. The Browns simply can’t compete with Walker or Thompson-Robinson under center, at least not against San Francisco.
If Watson is indeed out, look for the 49ers to win by at least a touchdown.
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