AFC Championship Game Props: Key Betting Lines for Chiefs-Bengals

Unexpected Heroes? Late Game Rallies? NFL Props Cover Them

NFL Props Outline a Dramatic AFC Championship Game

For the second straight year, the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. The NFL betting lines have moved back and forth between these teams thanks to news of Patrick Mahomes’s ankle injury. Either way, this is expected to be a close game. The AFC Championship Game props outline just how this tantalizing NFL matchup will play out.

Chiefs-Bengals Evenly Matched It Seems

Last year, the Bengals ousted the Chiefs in a thrilling overtime victory. Thus, the spread has this as a close game and the AFC Championship Game props support that. The 3-way win margin is lined nearly evenly with the Bengals winning by six or more points at +160 while the other results are at +180. The Bengals’ favored winning margin is 1-6 points (+300) and it’s similar to Kansas City’s (+320).

Even with the Chiefs being the NFL’s top-ranked offense, the game’s competitiveness lies in the defenses. The props don’t see either team hitting the 30-point mark (-145). The game’s total points range is between 41-50 points (+205) or 51-60 points (+260).

The Chiefs jumped out to a 21-10 lead in the first half last year. But Cincinnati’s defense shut Mahomes and the Chiefs down, holding them to just three points while Joe Burrow rallied Cincinnati to a 27-24 victory. But if you look at the props, a double result of the Cincinnati Bengals winning both halves is lined as the most likely result. An identical result from last NFL season (Chiefs/Bengals) is at +600 while betting the Chiefs to win both halves is at +200.

These two are the best of the AFC hence why they’re the ones left in this side’s NFL playoff bracket. It may just go down to which team can quickly assert its dominance. However, as last year proved, the team scoring first does not always win the game. The odds have the first scorer to win at -175 this time.

From Mahomes to Chase: Each Team’s Best Expected to Deliver

Speaking of Mahomes and Burrow, all eyes will be on these budding rivals. The edge has been with Burrow as he is undefeated against the Chiefs, 2-0 with a 78.6 percent completion rate, seven total touchdowns (six in passing), no interceptions, and a 138.8 passer rating.

Thus, it seems like an easy bet that he throws for more than 1.5 touchdowns (-185) and over 276.5 passing yards (-115).

As for Mahomes, he threw for 275 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 91.3 passer rating in last year’s meeting. The AFC Championship Game props await his official NFL injury status before giving him more specific lines. But the NFL leaders in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and quarterback rating this season should have similar numbers to Burrow.

If Mahomes and Burrow “cancel each other out”, it falls on the rest of their NFL team to step up to get the edge. Burrow has more weapons on offense though the biggest weapon belongs to the Chiefs with Travis Kelce. The tight end is lined at +105 to score a touchdown, the favorite for the Chiefs. Since 2019, Kelce has averaged better than a touchdown per game in the playoffs.

But Burrow has more options with Cincy. Top receiver Ja’Marr Chase is the favorite to score a touchdown anytime at -105. He’s tied with running back Joe Mixon. And not too far behind is Chase’s counterpart, Tee Higgins (+150). The trio accounts for over 50 percent of the team’s rushing and receiving touchdowns this season (25 of 49).

Heroes? Which Unlikely Players Will Make an Impact

As far as touchdown scorers, the NFL star above are the usual suspects. But what makes the NFL Playoffs exciting is when a lesser-known player makes a critical touchdown grab or a pivotal play.

Trent Taylor is a receiver who specializes in kick returns. He has not scored a touchdown in any way and is listed at +1200 to score one this game. A big return will go a long way for the team.

For the Chiefs, someone will have to step up to make a catch when the Bengals focus on Kelce. Juju Smith-Schuster (+220) and Kadarius Toney (+275) are the likeliest touchdown scorers from the receivers. Mecole Hardman (+300) has been out since Week 9. It would be quite a story if he returns and catches a touchdown in the clutch.

As for the defensive side, both Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III will be heavily relied on from safety to contain the likes of Kelce. The pair are not expected to make more than 5.5 tackles and assists (-115 and -120, respectively) per the AFC Championship Game props.

But they also have combined for eight interceptions and three forced fumbles. Bell has four quarterback hits and one sack. Look for the pair to be clutch for Cincy.

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