Buccaneers vs Vikings Odds: MIN Favored as Mayfield Starts

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings made the playoffs last season. Bettors aren’t too confident that will happen again. The Bucs and Vikings are two of the teams the NFL predictions have to be down this season. In Tampa Bay’s case, it’s understandable. The Buccaneers weren’t that good with Tom Brady last season. The Vikings won every close game they were in, which isn’t likely to happen again. Minnesota shouldn’t have been 13-4. Its stats were closer to that of an 8-9 or 9-8 team. But bettors are treating the Vikings as though they should have had NFL team standings of 6-11 or 7-10. They’ll drop off, but not as severe as some people believe.

The Buccaneers vs Vikings odds have Minnesota -6 with a total of 45.5.

One of the handicapping keys to this game is trying to determine which team will have less of a drop-off than the public expects. The Buccaneers have some decent defensive players. But the offense has its share of question marks, beginning with the quarterback.

The Vikings parted ways with Dalvin Cook, leaving Alexander Mattison as the team’s starting running back. He’s never been the featured back for an extended period, so his durability is unknown.

It’s Baker Mayfield for the Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield to be the starting quarterback. Forget what the team said about a competition between him and Kyle Trask. Mayfield has bounced around between the Browns, Rams, and Panthers, but has the experience and the pedigree teams like. The one thing he didn’t have last year was a decent team behind him. That’s one reason why he was 2-8 as a starter and threw 10 TDs against eight interceptions.

But Mayfield has had solid NFL stats in some seasons. In 2020, he threw 26 TD passes against eight interceptions. And he’s only 28 years old, so should have some mileage left. He doesn’t have much of a rushing attack behind him. The Bucs were dead last in rushing yards and No. 25 in scoring. The team has a few decent-skill NFL players, but that’s about it.

Tampa Bay was tied for 13th in points allowed. The pass defense was better than the rushing defense. The Bucs were No. 9 in pass defense and No. 15 in rushing defense. It was the defense that kept them in some games last year when Brady and the offense were struggling.

Vikings Have to Get Better Defensively

You can talk about Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Kirk Cousins all you want. The key to the Vikings’ season this year is going to be the defense. Minnesota was plain bad last season. The Vikings were No. 31 in total defense and tied for No. 28 in scoring defense. At least they were consistent. Minnesota couldn’t stop the run or the pass very well last season. Minnesota signed a few free agents to help defensively and two of its first three draft picks were defensive backs.

Offensively, the Vikings should be decent once again. Minnesota was No. 7 in total offense last year and No. 8 in scoring offense. Minnesota may rely on its passing game a little more with Cook’s departure and the arrival of No. 1 draft pick Jordan Addison. The Vikings were No. 6 in passing offense and No. 28 in rushing offense last season.

Who to Bet On?

The Buccaneers vs Vikings odds opened Minnesota -7.5, so there’s been some downward movement. The Vikings were just 7-11 against the spread last season counting the playoff loss to the Giants. As a favorite, Minnesota was 5-7 and 3-5 at home. Minnesota was 6-2 in totals as a home favorite and 11-7 overall. That’s the effect of a good offense and a horrible defense.

Tampa Bay was even worse against the point spread last season. The Bucs were 4-13-1, although most of those games were as a favorite. Tampa Bay was 0-4 as an underdog straight-up and against the number. In totals, the Bucs were 6-12 counting the playoffs, but 3-1 when an underdog.

The Buccaneers vs Vikings odds on the total have seen a slight move, as the over/under opened 46 and is now 45.5. Mayfield can make things happen, although not all of them are good. If he plays too cautious it could hurt the Bucs. The NFL betting odds have him the favorite as the first quarterback to be benched, but he can’t worry about that. He needs to go out and play his game.

This is one of the tougher opening week games to handicap, but the cover looks like it offers more value than a wager on either of the NFL teams to cover the point spread.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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