Can Derrick Henry Buck Trend for Aging NFL Backs?

Derrick Henry 2024 Season Props: Projected for 999.5 Rushing Yds

July 15, 2024 69 3 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

Can Derrick Henry Buck Trend for Aging NFL Backs? — Justin Ford/Getty Images/AFP

Rushing Yards
Touchdowns
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
NFL MVP Odds

Amidst another busy offseason in the NFL, one of the most significant moves came in March when the Baltimore Ravens signed star running back Derrick Henry to a two-year, $16 million deal to play alongside reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. Henry spent his first eight seasons with the Tennessee Titans, winning two rushing titles and making four Pro Bowls. He was also twice named an All-Pro.

Another big season could be in store for the 30-year-old Henry, though history shows running backs generally don’t get better with age.

With that in mind, here’s a look at Derrick Henry’s 2024 season props.

Rushing Yards

Over 999.5: +110
Under 999.5: -130

Derrick Henry’s 2024 season props, list the four-time Pro Bowler as +110 to top 999.5 rushing yards. Henry may be slowing down, as most running backs tend to do once they hit age 30. Over the last decade, only three backs have eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing at 30 or older: Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore and Raheem Mostert.

Even so, Henry remains one of the NFL’s most feared playmakers.

Henry maintained that title in 2023, rushing for 1,167 yards (second behind San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey with 1,459 yards) and 12 touchdowns on an NFL-high 280 carries. It was his fifth time in eight seasons surpassing 1,000 yards, two of which (2019, 2020) ended with him winning the league’s rushing title.

He had four 100-yard games, including a season-high 153-yard performance in Week 17 against Jacksonville.

Now Henry heads to Baltimore, which has finished top five in the NFL in rushing for six straight seasons. In 2023, Baltimore averaged a league-best 156.5 yards per game on the ground.

The Ravens signed Henry to a $16 million deal in March, envisioning him as possibly the missing piece to their Super Bowl hopes. They’ve had only one 1,000-yard back in Lamar Jackson’s first six seasons — Mark Ingram in 2019 — and nobody who comes close to Henry’s thunderous running style.

Jackson has led Baltimore in rushing five straight seasons, which is an NFL record for quarterbacks. He ran for 821 yards during his 2023 MVP campaign, and that’s doesn’t include his 100-yard effort against Houston in the AFC Divisional Round.

With Henry now aboard, Baltimore’s read-option attack will be that much more difficult to stop.

Touchdowns

Over 10.5: -105
Under 10.5: -115

Henry ran for 12 touchdowns last season, marking his sixth time in eight years with double-digit scores. He’s twice led the league in rushing touchdowns (2019, 2020) and is among the frontrunners to do so again, with +650 odds. Only McCaffrey (+650) is a bigger favorite for that NFL player prop.

Again, there’s a lot of mileage on Henry. Last season — Henry’s fourth time in five years leading the NFL in carries — his production dipped a bit. His average rushing yards (68.6 per game) and yards per carry (4.2) were his lowest since 2018.

Some of that, however, may be attributed to Tennessee’s lackluster offensive line. In that sense, his move to Baltimore cannot be underestimated. The Ravens ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring last season (28.4 PPG), while Tennessee was tied for 27th (17.9 PPG).

That should mean plenty more chances in the red zone for the 6-foot-2, 247-pound bulldozer of a runner.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

+5000

Henry won his first — and to date, only — Offensive Player of the Year award in 2020 when he ran for a career-best 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns. He became only the eighth player in NFL history to surpass 2,000 rushing yards.

As productive as he’s been, it’s unlikely to expect him to contend again for this award. Running backs generally don’t get better with age, and Henry is no exception. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s bound to diminish.

Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the odds and any NFL best bets.

NFL MVP Odds

+25000

If any Raven takes home MVP, it’ll likely be Jackson, who won for the second time last season.

The Ravens are Jackson’s team, and kind of extended absence would undoubtedly spell the end of their Super Bowl hopes. The same cannot be said for Henry or anyone else on the roster, hence Henry’s +25000 longshot odds.

For what it’s worth, the Ravens’ NFL playoff odds are currently -260. They also have the second-best AFC odds (+550) and are +1000 to win the Super Bowl.

For 2024 Derrick Henry 2024 season props, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.