Chiefs, Ravens Shaping Up as AFC Favorites, Who Else is in Mix?
AFC Championship Futures Expert Pick: Will KC's Reign Continue?
The AFC has been dominated by two teams for most of the last decade, with Kansas City and New England combining for seven of the last eight titles. Cincinnati is the only other team to crash the party during that time.
Fortunes swing rapidly in the NFL, and that won’t change. But as we gear toward another season, the Chiefs have maintained a stronghold on the conference. They are again the unquestioned team to beat, carrying +300 odds to return to the Super Bowl for a third straight year.
Baltimore (+550) is shaping up to be the biggest threat to their reign, followed by Cincinnati (+700) and Buffalo (+800). In all, seven teams are priced 11/1 or better, though history tells us the race won’t be nearly that deep.
What can we make of the conference? Let’s assess the pecking order and give our AFC championship futures expert pick.
The Champs are Here
The road to Super Bowl LIX runs through Kansas City. That won’t change so long as Patrick Mahomes stays healthy. The two-time NFL MVP is the primary reason why the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at being the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. He threw for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns last season, and those gaudy numbers were down from previous years.
Mahomes now has a beefed-up supporting cast that should help him guide the Chiefs on another deep run through the AFC playoffs. The Chiefs signed free-agent wide receiver Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy, who set combine record in the 40-yard dash, with the 28th overall pick. They also re-upped his favorite target, tight end Travis Kelce.
Oddsmakers are predictably bullish of the Chiefs, forecasting them for 11.5 wins. They’re also +500 favorites to three-peat, with San Francisco (+600) the only other team priced better than 10/1 on the NFL odds board.
Can anyone in the AFC knock them off?
Joe Cool
Cincinnati’s chase for another Super Bowl dissolved the moment Joe Burrow injured his wrist. The Pro Bowler missed the final seven games after getting hurt, watching the Bengals fade rapidly from contention.
Burrow is finally healthy again, though Cincinnati must wonder what it’s done to deserve so much hardship on the injury front. Burrow, as many may recall, also missed his rookie season with an ACL tear.
The Bengals (+700) have the third-shortest odds to win the AFC. Some bettors may be weary, questioning Burrow’s ability to stay healthy. But his talent is undisputed, and the Bengals bring back star receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
With a trip to Kansas City on tap for Week 2, the Bengals will show early what they’re made of.
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Battling Father Time
Aaron Rodgers’ first season with the Jets lasted all of four snaps, with the four-time MVP suffering a devastating Achilles tear. Not long after that, Gang Green went in the tank. They lost their next three games and never recovered, fading into the abyss with Zach Wilson proving incapable of righting the ship. And so, a season that began with hope ended with the Jets missing the playoffs for a 13th straight year.
Rodgers is going to give it another go with the Jets, but at 40 years old, it’s fair to ask how many productive years he has left. Father Time is undefeated!
There’s a decent amount of hype around the Jets, with oddsmakers projecting them for 9.5 wins. They are also +1100 to win the AFC, matching the sixth-best odds on the board.
In a sense, it’s justified. Few teams are as talented on both sides of the ball. At the same time, there’s understandably a fraction of fans waiting for the other shoe to drop. They know better than to buy in and believe New York can make the 2024 NFL playoff bracket.
Maybe this year is different? Maybe? Read on for our AFC Championship futures expert pick…
For NFL expert picks, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
