Three games on the NFL’s Week 11 slate featured double-digit spreads as of Friday morning. A fourth, the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, has ranged between 7.5 and 10 points.
Will those games play to form? Or should bettors be leery of the possibility of blowouts? Let’s break down a few of the key NFL Week 11 line moves.
Opening Total: Dolphins -10.5
Current Total: Dolphins -13.5
Interim coach Antonio Pierce has helped stabilize the Raiders, leading them to back-to-back wins following the dismissal of Josh McDaniels. At 5-5, they suddenly find themselves in the thick of the AFC playoff picture.
They’ll look to continue their resurgence against the first-place Dolphins (6-3), who are coming off a bye. The Dolphins have covered the spread in all four home games. Among NFL Week 11 lines, they’re the biggest favorite.
Opening Total: Browns -4.5
Current Total: Browns -1.5
Deshaun Watson’s season-ending shoulder injury is a crushing blow to the Browns, who have seen their Super Bowl LVIII hopes plummet from +3000 to +4500. To replace Watson, Cleveland’s turning back to rookie Doran Thompson-Robinson.
Thompson-Robinson, a fifth-rounder from UCLA, struggled in his first start at quarterback this season. He passed for 121 yards and three interceptions in a 28-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Oct. 1.
In wake of his injury, the projected total also dropped from 38.5 to 32.5, the lowest of any NFL Week 11 line.
Opening Total: Bears +10
Current Total: Bears +7.5
Quarterback Justin Fields is expected back after missing four games with a dislocated thumb. While undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent performed adequately in his absence, leading Chicago to a 2-2 mark in four games, the Bears are considerably more dynamic with Fields.
Prior to getting hurt, Fields threw for 1,201 yards, 11 touchdowns but also six interceptions. Chicago scored a season-high in points in his last full game, a 40-20 defeat of the Washington Commanders on Oct. 5.
Opening Total: 49ers -10.5
Current Total: 49ers -11.5
The 49ers returned to form following the bye, hammering the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 in Week 10. In doing so, they snapped the ugliness of a three-game losing streak to retain among the Super Bowl favorites. At +500, they now hold the best odds of any NFC team according to NFL betting lines.
Opening Total: Rams +2.5
Current Total: Rams +1
Matthew Stafford is expected to return under center after missing one game on the NFL schedule with a sprained thumb. Brett Rypien struggled mightily in his absence, throwing for 130 yards and an interception in a 20-3 loss to Green Bay.
The Seahawks, winners of three and four, will be looking to avenge their 30-13 loss to Los Angeles in Week 1. They’re tied with San Francisco for the NFC West lead at 6-3.