Health Biggest Obstacle for Browns Deshaun Watson
2024 Deshaun Watson Odds Project 19.5 Touchdown Passes

Deshaun Watson‘s career in Cleveland has gotten off to a disappointing start, with the three-time NFL Pro Bowler appearing in only 14 games over his first two seasons. A fractured right shoulder ended his 2023 campaign after just seven games, setting the stage for veteran Joe Flacco to replace him. Flacco was a revelation, winning Comeback Player of the Year honors as he guided the Browns to the AFC playoffs.
However, for better or worse, this is now Watson’s team again. The $230 million quarterback spent all offseason rehabbing his throwing shoulder following surgery. He was medically cleared just before the start of training camp.
What can bettors reasonably expect from Watson? Let’s break down the projected 2024 Deshaun Watson odds.

Passing Yards
Over 3,400.5: -110
Under 3,400.5: -110
Sixteen NFL quarterbacks — exactly half the league’s starters — exceeded 3,400 passing yards last year. Watson, of course, was not among them. He threw for 1,115 yards before a shoulder injury ended his season after only seven games. He exceeded 235 yards just once, throwing for 289 in a Week 3 win over Tennessee.
Watson’s health and the Browns’ ground-and-pound offense don’t foster much confidence about his ability to throw for 3,400-plus yards. He hasn’t exceeded that total since 2020, his last season with the Houston Texans.
There’s reason to believe Watson, who turns 29 on Sept. 14, is fully healthy again given his strong performance in training camp. The Browns host Green Bay on Aug. 10 in their preseason opener, though it’d be surprising if Watson played alongside the majority of starters. Bettors will have to wait until Week 1 of the regular season, when Cleveland hosts Dallas, to get a more accurate read on Watson. NFL betting lines list Cleveland as a 2-point favorite and -125 on the moneyline.
That said, if Watson’s close to or at 100%, he should be able to hit this bar. It’s an average of approximately 200 yards per game. Be sure to keep that in mind when assessing any 2024 Deshaun Watson odds.
Passing Touchdowns
Over 19.5: +105
Under: 19.5: -125
At first glance, this doesn’t seem like a high bar to clear in spite of plus odds. Eighteen quarterbacks threw for 20 or more touchdowns last season, and that number would’ve been even higher if not for season-ending injuries to Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow.
Watson has seven touchdown passes in each of his first two seasons in Cleveland. However, in the four years prior to that, he averaged 26. Granted, Watson played in a more open offensive system in Houston.
At this point in his career, Watson’s biggest obstacle is health. If he avoids getting hurt, he’ll have the opportunity to post big numbers on the 2024 NFL schedule. Case in point: Look at what Joe Flacco did in his brief cameo as a starter, throwing for 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns in five games.
The Browns beefed up their receiving core, trading for Jerry Jeudy to pair with Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku. Nick Chubb’s absence remains big, but the Browns have proven capable of running the ball no matter who is in the backfield.
That’s important to remember when making NFL playoff predictions and other futures bets.
For 2024 Deshaun Watson odds, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.