Is Carr Ready To Drive the New Orleans Saints Into the Playoffs?

The 2024 Derek Carr Season Odds Have the New Orleans QB Falling Short of His 2023 Numbers

Expectations Are On the Low Side for Four-Time Pro Bowl Quarterback

After flirting with a 4000-yard season in his first season with the New Orleans Saints, the 2024 Derek Carr season odds are projecting a bit of a drop-off.

Carr finished with a better passer rating during the 2023 regular season than Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers, Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams, and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals. However, three of those players have played in Super Bowls, while postseason success has eluded Carr. Now, there are questions about whether New Orleans will follow a similar script used by the Las Vegas Raiders, who moved on from the No. 1 quarterback.

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Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints finished tied for the best record NFC South Division during the 2023 season. However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the division and earned a playoff spot in 2023, thanks to a tiebreaker. Now, New Orleans is behind the Atlanta Falcons and the Buccaneers in the odds of winning the NFC South this season.

New Orleans holds 11th place in the odds of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl at +3500. There are 22 teams with shorter odds of winning the Super Bowl than the Saints as New Orleans is trending in the wrong direction in the NFL power rankings as the Saints went into the 2023 season tied for fifth in the odds of winning the NFC championship.

What Might Have Been

One more win would have gotten the Saints into the playoffs in 2023. New Orleans lost to Green Bay by one point, fell by seven points to Houston and Jacksonville in a span of four days in October as New Orleans went 3-6 in one-score games during the 2023 season.

Is this a make-or-break season for Carr? The 2024 Derek Carr season odds don’t paint a pretty picture about Carr’s future as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Even while he was throwing for more than 4000 yards in four years in a row, there seemed to be something off about Carr during his time with the Raiders whether they were playing in Oakland or Las Vegas.

Trading for elite receiver Davante Adams, his former teammate at Fresno State, was supposed to be the missing piece.

However, the reunion lasted just one season.

Carr refused to waive a no-trade clause in his contract, and the Raiders cut their former starting quarterback. Now, the Raiders are going with either journeyman Gardner Minshew or 2023 fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell as the starting quarterback.

A Look At the Numbers

Carr, a second-round pick by the Raiders in the 2014 NFL Draft, has more passing yards than any of the players selected in that draft. The top two quarterbacks in that draft were Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel spent the last two seasons with the Cleveland Browns, while Bortles last played in the NFL in 2019.

Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins are the only active quarterbacks with more career passing yards during the regular season than Carr.

Are his best days behind him?

Carr has -115 odds to either go over or under 21.5 touchdown passes according to the NFL expert picks after throwing 25 touchdowns last season. He seems to be a little undervalued, with -115 odds to exceed 3375.5 passing yards.

There are 28 players with shorter NFL Most Valuable Player odds. He is also well back at +5000 to lead the NFL in passing yards.

Carr has thrown for 39,100 yards in his 10 NFL seasons but has only played in one playoff game during that time.

2024 Derek Carr season odds: What to expect?

The Saints passed on the urge to take a quarterback early in the 2024 NFL Draft as six quarterbacks were off the board by the time that New Orleans took Oregon State offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga with the 14th overall pick.
New Orleans did take former Oklahoma and South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler in the fifth round.

The quarterback room is pretty crowded with Taysom Hill back, the Saints signing Nathan Peterman, and Rattler and Jake Haener as the other quarterbacks.

Chris Olave is a big-play receiver, but there’s not much else to work with, and that is evident when it comes to the 2024 Derek Carr season odds. Michael Thomas caught 378 passes in a three-year span as the No. 1 receiver for the Saints. However, he has played in 15 games over the last four seasons and is currently a free agent. There are also questions about how much longer elite pass-catching running back Alvin Kamara will remain in New Orleans.

A Look Ahead

New Orleans favors the Saints by five points against the visiting Carolina Panthers in the season opener as they jump right into NFC South play.

Things pick up the next two weeks with NFC title contenders Dallas and Philadelphia facing the Saints. A matchup with two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City is set for Oct. 7. With the Saints playing all four AFC West teams in 2024, there will be a showdown with his former team when the Raiders come to New Orleans four days after Christmas.

New Orleans only faces four playoff teams over its 11 games, so if the Saints can keep it together early in the season, perhaps they can be in the running for a playoff spot. Even with a reasonable schedule, the Saints have +175 odds to make the playoffs, and the NFL scores and odds price them at -120 to go over 7.5 wins during the regular season.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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