MNF Week 12: Steelers vs Colts Betting Preview & Odds
Feast On MNF, Better Than Leftovers!
Thanksgiving week wraps up with a fascinating showdown between newbie coach Jeff Saturday and legendary NFL coach Mike Tomlin as the pair lead their teams into Monday Night Football. As ever, we’ve compiled a hand Steelers vs Colts Betting Preview below.
The Colts are coming off a brutal 17-16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. They will be looking to bounce back under the lights at Lucas Oil Stadium at the expense of the Steelers, who are coming off one of their best offensive performances, albeit in a loss at home to the Cincinnati Bengals.
As per the sportsbook exchange, the Colts are the slight -2½ home favorites in point spread betting, They are priced at -135 on the moneyline compared to the Steelers at +115 and the total is projected to a low 39 points.
Will the Colts come through for their backers? Or is the value with the Steelers? Here’s our Steelers vs Colts Betting Preview complete with NFL picks for your consideration.
MNF Odds
Steelers vs Colts
Spread: Colts -2½
Moneyline: Steelers +115 | Colts -135
Total: O 39 (-110) | U 39 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers Rebuilding
The Steelers (3-7-0) are in the midst of a rebuild, laying the foundations for rookie Kenny Pickett as the potential franchise quarterback of the future.
The Steelers are well outside of the playoff frame and in bottom place in the AFC North. It’s hard to see them make a run for it at this late stage of the season, albeit they are competing hard for longtime head coach Mike Tomlin who has never had a losing season in his 15-year career in Pittsburgh.
Recently, the Steelers fell to the Cincinnati Bengals 37-30 at Acrisure Stadium. Although they failed to cover as the +3½ home underdogs, they had one of their best offensive accounts of the season. It was the first time the Steelers breached the 30-point mark.
Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Team Stats
Overall, the Steelers are 4-5-1 against the spread (ATS) with a 7.4 losing margin on average.
As the away team, they are 2-3-0 ATS with a 14.4 losing margin on average.
The Steelers are 3-1-0 ATS in their last four games.
Indianapolis Colts Fall Short
Falling short is the underlying theme for the Indianapolis Colts’ season. They’ve repeatedly fallen short of the mark in all facets of the game and that ultimately led to the firing of Frank Reich.
Interim head coach Jeff Saturday took over in Week 10 and led the Colts to the inspired 25-20 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. He couldn’t have had a better start to his NFL coaching debut by all accounts. Especially considering his complete lack of coaching experience at this level.
However, the cheerful bonhomie was short-lived. The following week, the Colts fritted away 16-10 lead over the Philadelphia Eagles and succumbed to the 17-16 defeat. The fact that the Colts played better than most expected they would and covered as the +6½ home underdogs was small consolation.
Indianapolis Colts NFL Team Stats
Overall, the Colts are 5-6-0 ATS with a 4.3 losing margin on average
As the home team, the Colts are 3-2-0 ATS with a 0.2 winning margin on average
The Colts are 2-3-0 ATS in their last five games.
From Lookaheads to Week 12 Official Lines
Preseason lookahead projected the NFL line for this game at Colts -4½. That was at a time when Indianapolis was considered a favorite to win the AFC South and a potential playoff contender. A lot has changed since then.
Ahead of Week 11, the lookahead lines projected the Colts at -3. Following the disappointing loss to the Eagles, the markets went to press with the Colts at -2½ for NFL betting lines week 12. The line has held strong since then.
Steelers vs Colts Betting Verdict:
The first thing that should stand out in any Steelers vs Colts Betting Preview is the coaching mismatch between Saturday and Tomlin. Just on that score alone, it’s hard to see the Colts winning this game simply because it would mean that the greenhorn outsmarted and outcoached one of the league’s best and sure-fire Hall of Famer.
Another factor to take into consideration here is Pittsburgh’s improved play on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie Pickett had one of his best games, throwing for a season-high 265 yards and a touchdown. Najee Harris led the team in rushing with 90 yards and two scores on 20 carries and rising star George Pickens put up 83 yards and a touchdown.
Watt is a destructive force and his presence makes the matchup between the Colts offense and Steelers defense key. The Eagles got to Matt Ryan, especially late in the game.
Add to that a Steelers defense that features T.J. Watt, and the case for the Steelers delivering the outright upset is stronger. Watt is a destructive force and his presence makes the matchup between the Colts offense and Steelers defense key. The Eagles got to Matt Ryan, especially late in the game. Ryan was sacked four times and held under constant pressure.
All told, even with the line dropping by a half a point since last week’s lookaheads, the Colts look overrated at -2½. They were the feel good story of Week 10 but came crashing back down to earth in Week 11. They had plenty of chances to put away the Eagles, but failed miserably.
The Steelers aren’t in the same class as the Eagles, but can you trust the Colts in this situation? If not, then back the Steelers for your NFL picks. And if you’re feeling brave enough, take the Steelers at +115 for the better value on the outright win.
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