NFC Mid-Season Betting Report Card

Giants, Cowboys, Seahawks Atop NFC ATS with Combined 18-7 ATS Record.

In this NFC betting report, we’ll dive deeper into various teams’ spread records in addition to taking a peak back at where a few squads were projected to be by comparison to where they are now.

We’ll conclude our report by looking ahead to how the sharps are going to profit the rest of the season. To date, underdogs are 78-56-3 (58.21%) +1526 units. If underdogs finish in the black this season, it will be the fifth straight year that ‘dogs have been profitable.

Giants Are One Win Away From Cashing Season Win Total

The New York Giants are clearly the surprise of the National Football League with a 6-2 SU record. They’ve produced 358 units of profit and are a victory away from cashing their preseason projected win total of 6.5. It hasn’t been easy with five of their six covers coming as underdogs.

Their signature win was in London as an 8.5-point underdog against the Green Bay Packers, 27-22. Five of their last nine games are at home where the Giants have covered three of four games. It would be smart to keep in mind that the bookmakers will likely make an adjustment for a team that has not produced a profit at MetLife Stadium since 2016-17.

Our NFL midseason prediction is that the Giants will level out the rest of the way, so be careful when laying numbers with a football team still learning to win.

Falcons In Line for Big Pay Day for Early Season Bettors

The second biggest surprise is clearly the Atlanta Falcons. Second Year head coach, Arthur Smith has his team at 4-6, but the only number the betting public cares about is their 6-2 ATS record, an indication that their overall record should be way better. Atlanta has lost six games by an average of 8.6 points, but three early season losses were by a combined 11 points.

We anticipate the rest of the season will be tough to handicap with a team that has failed to cover twice as a favorite but six of eight as a dog. If the Falcons could lean on their defense more, bettors might develop more confidence.

They are one win away from cashing their season win totals for over bettors (5) and still have a reasonable chance to win a division (+1600) that no one seems to want to win. Atlanta will need to win the division to make the NFL playoffs, but if they do they’ll cash an early +550 ticket to make the postseason.

Dak, Cowboys Have Eye On Super Bowl Run

The Cowboys’ defense kept the team in games while Dak Prescott was on the mend for five games. Dallas has forced seven turnovers this season, third in the league, giving a much-needed boost to quarterback Cooper Rush who was 4-1 s a starter.

There are always a ton of Super Bowl futures on Dallas (+1800), and as long as they stay off the NFL injury report, Mike McCarthy’s team will be there in the end. Dallas will play five of their last nine games on the road as they look to add to their sparkling 22-8 ATS record over their last 30 games.

Our NFL midseason prediction is to continue betting on the ‘Boys’, especially on the road where they’ll have short numbers to cover.

Buccaneers Trending Down

True, the Buccaneers are technically in first place in the NFC South at 4-5, but from a betting perspective, Tampa will not be a team the public should look to wager on the rest of the way.

Tampa was -600 to make the playoffs in the preseason, and still might, but with a 2-6-1 ATS mark, it’s safe to say that a Falcon’s wager would feel more secure at this point.

The name says Brady at quarterback but some of us know the emotional toll a very public divorce can be. Tampa has failed to cover a single game in seven straight and is dead last in money won for bettors this season (-422 units).

Fun fact, Tampa is just 20-21 ATS since Brady arrived in 2020. This ship is going down in the harbor fast.

Seahawks Control NFC West Despite Loss to Niners

No matter what happens from here on out, the Seattle Seahawks have already met preseason expectations with their six wins, after oddsmakers put their season win total at 5.5. After their win against the Cardinals to cash that ticket, the next order of business is to further reward bettors by making the postseason (+425).

Pete Carroll’s team has covered four straight games heading into this week’s winnable match-up with the Buccaneers. Carroll is now into his 13th season in Seattle and is an example of how much coaching means when betting from week to week.

Since 2011, the ‘hawks are 100-78 ATS (56.18%) +1716 units. Only three other teams have been better in that span (Patriots, Bengals, and Saints). Our official NFC betting report recommendation is to ride with the Seahawks the rest of the way because we feel this team is only getting better.

Overall Thoughts

To conclude our NFC betting report let’s look at a few angles to carry you through the rest of the season. Home teams are 64-68-3 (48.49%) -934 units in 2022. Since 2018, home teams against the number are 538-597 (47.40%) -9086 units.

Only twice since 2003 has betting the home teams produced a profit. Betting home favorites are worse, 300-378 (44.25%) -9304 units since 2018-19.

Over the last five seasons, the Dallas Cowboys (42-30-1) +969 units, are the top team against the number in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars being the worst (27-45-2 ATS) -1999 units, including a 3-6 ATS mark this season.

Our recommendation is to stay with some under-the-radar teams like the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, and the beforementioned Seattle Seahawks. Good luck the rest of the way.

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