NFL Divisional Round Upset Watch: Chiefs Picking Up Steam

Best NFL Underdog Picks: KC Shortest 'Dog at +124 Outright

The opening weekend of the NFL playoffs saw three favorites lose and another fail to cover. In many ways, the Wild Card Round was truly wild.

Are there anymore surprises in store?

As bettors contemplate lines for the Divisional Round, let’s break down our best NFL underdog picks.

Chiefs logo Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5, +124 ML) at Buffalo Bills Bills logo

Day/Time:
Streaming: ESPN

The Chiefs have eliminated the Bills from the playoffs in two of the last three seasons. While this matchup is in Buffalo, the Bills are dealing with a rash of NFL injuries. Four NFL players have already been ruled out for Sunday, including receiver Gabe Davis (knee) and safety Taylor Rapp (calf). Four others were scheduled to either return to practice on Friday or sit out and become game-time decisions.

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That obviously doesn’t bode well as the Bills will need all the help they can get to knock off the defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs have won four of five since losing to Buffalo in Week 14 and are on the brink of returning to the AFC Championship for the sixth straight season.

Kansas City opened as a 2.5-point underdog, and that has mainly stayed intact. Only briefly did it climb to +3. Still, it’s easily the shortest line of the Divisional Round.

The Chiefs’ defense has played better of late, with their younger starters like George Karlaftis (10.5 sacks) continuing to establish themselves as difference-makers. They’ve allowed just 36 points over the last three weeks. And of course, there’s also Patrick Mahomes. That makes Kansas City the best NFL underdog pick.

Buccaneers logo Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, +240) at Detroit Lions Lions logo

Day/Time:
Streaming: ESPN

Oft-maligned former No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield torched the Eagles with 337 yards and three touchdowns passing. Mayfield has now thrown multiple NFL scores in five of the last six NFL games, during which the Buccaneers have topped 30 points thrice.

Detroit boasts one of the NFL’s best home-field advantages, and nobody has thrived at Ford Field more than Jared Goff. This season, Goff has a 107.9 QB rating at home compared to 89.4 on the road.

While that’s a lot to overcome, Tampa Bay has fared quite well in this position. It’s covered in eight of its nine road NFL games and is 5-4 OU. Mayfield has an 18-to-3 touchdown/interception ratio and a 100.3 QB rating in those games.

The Buccaneers opened as 5-point underdogs and have moved to +6.5, but it’d be risky to just write them off. Next to Kansas City, they’re the best NFL underdog pick.

Texans logo Houston Texans (+9, +320) at Baltimore Ravens Ravens logo

Day/Time:
Streaming: ESPN

The DeMeco Ryans/C.J. Stroud Era began with a 25-9 loss to Baltimore in September. So much has changed over the last four months for Houston, and for the better. After overcoming +1000 odds to win the AFC South, the Texans rode another big performance by Stroud to a 45-14 upset of Cleveland in the Wild Card Round.

Stroud threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns, becoming the youngest quarterback (22 years and 102 days) in NFL history to win a playoff game. The No. 2 pick out of Ohio State is a heavy favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Baltimore is rested following the opening-round bye and may be the NFL’s most balanced team. It went 6-1 down the stretch, with the only loss coming in Week 18 to Pittsburgh with backup Tyler Huntley at quarterback. The Ravens are 13-3 under John Harbaugh coming off an extra week of rest, and they’re at home.

The Texans should have their hands full, but Stroud is a special enough talent to keep this close.

Packers logo Green Bay Packers (+9.5, +340) at San Francisco 49ers 49ers logo

Day/Time:
Streaming: ESPN

San Francisco is the biggest favorite of the Divisional Round, and with good reason. A majority of its starters have had two weeks to rest, including Christian McCaffrey. The star running back has returned to fully practicing and is expected will be good to go after sitting out Week 18 with a mild calf strain.

That said, Green Bay has already pulled off one big surprise this postseason and seems to be gaining steam. Look no further than Jordan Love. The former first-round pick and heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers is blossoming into a star. He’s thrown 21 touchdowns compared to only one interception over the last nine games on the NFL schedule, during which the Packers are 6-3 ATS and 7-2 against the Over/Under.

Beating San Francisco (+175 Super Bowl odds) is unlikely, but Love at least gives Green Bay a shot.

For NFL underdog picks, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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