NFL Divisional Special Odds: Betting on Numbers That Matter

This is an NFL Salami in Spirit

Chiefs, Giants are X-Factors With These NFL Divisional Totals

Down to eight teams and four games, the NFL Divisional round features a mixture of games going by the NFL Divisional special odds.

On one hand, Kansas City Chiefs could lead the biggest blowout against Jacksonville as their point spread alludes to. And in the other, the New York Giants could pull an upset in a defensive struggle against their division rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles.

Biggest Winning Margin

Even if this is the NFL’s 2023 Divisional Round and theoretically features the eight best NFL teams, blowouts are possible. The Chiefs are favored by 9.5 on the sportsbook and the Eagles are by 7.5 over the Giants.

The NFL odds do have the biggest winning margin set at 16.5 points with bettors already betting the ‘over’ to -130.

In the previous round, the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys had the two largest winning margins at 18 points and 17 points, respectively.

Coincidentally, they face each other here with San Francisco lined as the smallest favorite in this round at four points.

Home vs Away Team Points

Home turf advantage is significant and you can spot that with the home vs away team point spread. The NFL Divisional special odds give the away team +24.5 points and the public is going toward the home team.

The point differential for home teams was just at five points (0.83 on average) in the wild-card round thanks to two upsets. But if we just count the victories, it stood at 29 points.

The four home teams combined for a 29-5 record at home. If we add their point differentials, the home team has a combined 40.9-point differential per game.

That’s more than a few points more than the line set here. As for the visitors, their combined road record is 18-16 and their average combined point differential as a visitor is 8.2 with only the New York Giants having a negative differential (-1.4).

Combined Total Points

This is the unofficial NFL salami this weekend with the four NFL games‘ combined totals set at 195.5 points. The public is still split. But if we add all eight teams’ average points in their respective locations, it amounts to 207.3. On defense, these teams allow 158 points.

The average here is 182.7 points, which is a bit under the total thus the oddsmakers expect there to be more offense than defense.

After all, we have the five highest-scoring teams here and only the Giants are not in the top 10 in scoring offense. And in terms of defense, five teams are in the top 10. Jacksonville Jaguars (12th), Kansas City (16th), and the Giants (18th) fall outside of it.

Will Any Team Score a Defensive or Special Teams TD?

While the offense gets all the spotlight, defense and special teams can be the X-Factor in these games. A fumble recovery can lead to extra points while a return touchdown could also swing the momentum for any of these teams.

The NFL Divisional special odds heavily expect at least one team to score a defensive or special teams TD at -400. That implies a 73.7 percent chance of happening.

All eight teams scored at least one defensive touchdown this NFL season. Jacksonville had the most defensive touchdowns with four while Dallas had three.

The latter also forced the most turnovers with 33 while San Francisco had 30. With the two facing each other, there is a good chance that one if not both of them will produce a defensive TD. However, only Buffalo Bills has recorded special teams touchdowns and both happened in their final game of the season.

Highest vs Lowest Scoring Teams

The Chiefs come into this round as the NFL’s highest-scoring offense with 29.2 points per game. So it’s obvious why they’re favored to produce the most points this weekend at +250 on the sportsbook. On the other side are the Giants, who are +250 to be the lowest scoring of the eight.

New York averaged 22 points per game, which is the fewest. It also faces Philadelphia, which allows just 18.8 points at home.

Philadelphia is ninth overall and third among the home teams in home defense. San Francisco allows the fewest points at home at a measly 15.6 points. That’s why their opponent, Dallas, is second in the odds at +400 to score the fewest points.

It is tied with Cincinnati and Jacksonville at those odds. On the flip side, Philadelphia (+350) and Buffalo (+400) are behind Kansas City on the odds as the potential highest-scoring teams.

Highest vs Lowest Scoring Games

Thanks to staunch defenses, the Cowboys-49ers game is expected to be this weekend’s lowest-scoring game at +180. These teams allow the fewest points as a visitor and as a host among the eight teams.

Those betting on NFL totals will find theirs set the lowest this weekend at 46.

On the other end is the Jaguars-Chiefs game. This matchup is expected to produce the most points at +160. Kansas City scores 25.1 points at home on average, which is the fewest of the four hosts.

But Jacksonville averages 25 points as a visitor, which is the most of the road teams this weekend. Their total is also set at the highest at 52 points.

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