NFL First Round Position Totals: Expect Quarterbacks to Go Early in the 2023 NFL Draft

Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker Could Make it Five QBs Taken in the First Round

The days are starting to dwindle as the 2023 NFL Draft is almost here so there won’t be much time to hear about which players visited which teams or to wade through the seemingly endless number of mock drafts.

One big difference from the 2022 draft will be how quickly quarterbacks are flying off the board with Alabama’s Bryce Young likely to get things started. After that, projecting the NFL first round position totals could be challenging.

Carolina is expected to select Young after trading away multiple picks and receiver D.J. Moore to acquire the top pick.

There will be just 31 first-round picks. Miami lost their top selection (No. 21 overall) for violating the NFL’s anti-tampering policy in the quest to land quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Sean Payton.

The draft begins on Apr. 27 with the first round. The second and third rounds come on Apr. 28 followed by rounds 4-7 on Apr. 29.

The price is set at -130 for fewer than 16.5 offensive players going in the first round with the same number for more than 14.5 defensive players to be selected in Round 1. Below is a breakdown of some other numbers to keep an eye on in the opening night of the draft.

A Passing Fancy

There is a potential that the first four players off the board could be quarterbacks if the Arizona Cardinals, who hold the No. 3 pick, end up trading with a quarterback-needy team.

It seems more likely that four quarterbacks will go in the top half of the draft, perhaps even in the top 10.

With each passing day, it is looking more and more like Alabama’s Bryce Young will land in Carolina with the No. 1 pic. The Houston Texans have picks No. 2 and 12 so there is a chance that they could pass on the QB at No. 2 and hope that one of the top four QBs is still there at No. 12. That would be ironic since that is one of the picks that Houston got from Cleveland in exchange for quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Indianapolis at No. 4, Seattle at No. 5, Detroit at No. 6, the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 7 and Atlanta Falcons are No. 8 are all teams could be in a market for a quarterback.

Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud doesn’t figure to be around for very long once the draft starts and the first round could be impacted by when Florida’s Will Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis are selected.

The price is set at -140 for fewer than 4.5 quarterbacks to be selected according to the NFL first round position totals and +110 to go over that number. With that in mind, keep an eye on Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker. If not for a knee injury that ended his final teams with the Volunteers a little early, he would certainly go in the first round. There have been some rumblings of teams willing to take a chance on him and wait for him to get healthy.

Hitting The Ground Running

NFL teams don’t usually select running backs as quickly as in past eras.

Three of the four top rookie rushers in 2022 were taken outside the top 100 picks. The lone exception was Kenneth Walker of the Seahawks as he went 41st overall. How will things look for the rookie running backs when it comes to the 2023 NFL players stats.

Bijan Robinson of Texas will certainly go in the first round and perhaps even in the top 10.

After that, it gets a little tricky. Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs has the versatility as a runner and receiver that NFL teams cherish. Will that mean that he sneaks into the first round? In former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah’s list of the top draft prospects, GIbbs comes in at No. 29. The next running back doesn’t come in until UCLA‘s Zach Charbonnet at No. 50.

The total for the number of running backs to go in the first round is 1.5 with -550 odds on Robinson being the only running back selected on the first night of the draft when it comes to the NFL first round position totals.

Catching A Draft

Teams that picked a receiver early in the 2022 draft were not disappointed as former Ohio State teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were both 1,000-yard receivers with the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints. Drake London was the first receiver selected and he finished with 866 yards for the Atlanta Falcons.

It seems unlikely that three of the top 11 picks will be receivers as was the case in 2022. However, the price is set at -190 for more than 3.5 receivers to go in the first round.

USC’s Jordan Addison has moved into the top spot among receivers. Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, fast-rising Zay Flowers of Boston College and Quentin Johnson of Texas Christian are being touted as other potential first-round picks. They could help struggling teams add some juice to the passing game in the 2023 NFL team stats.

It is quite possible that the first pass catcher to be taken will be Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid while Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame seems destined to go in the first round as well.

Will there be another tight end to join them on the first night of the draft?

Georgia’s Darnell Washington and Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave are worth keeping an eye on. With the odds at +240 for more than 2.5 tight ends to be drafted, they may have to wait until the second round.

DBs, Linemen Could Go Early

Last year 16 of the 32 first-round picks were either offensive linemen or defensive backs.

It seems unlikely that number will be matched. The price is set at -220 for more than 5.5 offensive linemen to go in the first round and -115 to go either over or under 5.5 defensive backs.

Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski or Ohio State’s Paris Johnson could be the top offensive linemen to be selected.

Devon Witherspoon of Illinois has moved by Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez in the defensive back pecking order.

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