NFL Futures: Detroit’s Sam LaPorta Season Odds
LaPorta Was A Pro-Bowler in His Rookie Season
Sam LaPorta put up incredible numbers in his first year under Lions head coach Dan Campbell. In 17 games, the 6-3, 245-lb tight end finished with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. In the postseason, he stepped up with 176 yards receiving, and a touchdown, in three games. That success makes it difficult to look at an NFL scores and odds page without handicapping LaPorta’s impact.
Let’s dive into our 2024 Sam LaPorta season odds to identify the best option for Lions’ bettors to put their cash behind.
LaPorta’s Touchdown Prop A Likely Payout
We dug deep into the prop sheet to find Detroit Lions NFL team props. This one features Sam LaPorta’s touchdown production and the number is stuck on 10.
- If the Lions TE has 10 receiving touchdowns this season the current payout is +210. As we mentioned, the rookie hit that mark last season. One small caveat is it must be a receiving touchdown, just in case Campbell has wild ideas.
To give bettors how good of a season LaPorta had, in 2023 he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game, the highest total by any rookie tight end in the history of fantasy sports.
In the offseason, the Lions didn’t make any significant changes to the offense which means LaPorta will be the second target for Quarterback Jared Goff who targeted his tight end 21.1% of his throws and 24% of the rookies’ overall routes run.
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St.Brown will remain Goff’s top target but inside the red zone, LaPorta will get plenty of chances to NFL match his 2023 season touchdown total.
Without significant upgrades, we expect the former Hawkeye to hit the 10-touchdown receiving mark in 2024. He should also exceed it, giving us a nice +210 payout.
🎥| What is going through Laporta’s mind right now? #fcblive 👀 pic.twitter.com/BhV7qKrvxF
— BarçaTimes (@BarcaTimes) August 12, 2024
We’re Taking The Receiving Yards Bait
- If you can’t tell already, we’re extremely high on Sam LaPorta and think he’ll improve his 2023 numbers.
What’s not to be excited about after breaking the NFL’s record for rookie receptions by a tight end, besting the previous mark held by Keith Jackson in 1988 (81)? LaPorta will be among the NFL stat leaders for 2024 if both Lions’ weapons stay healthy.
One is LaPorta who did not participate in Monday’s practice (8/12) as he deals with a minor hamstring issue that seems to be precautionary, and the other is Brown who has never missed a game in his three-year career.
We’re going to assume that Goff will have his 1500-yard receiver for the entire season making it very difficult to think that the Illinois native won’t exceed the receiving yard prop number of 825.5 (-112).
Middle Opportunity With A Suspicious Number
This was one 2024 Sam LaPorta season odds prop that stuck out as, well, odd. Books put his season touchdown total at 7.5 with the juice being -130 to the under.
This number seems like the oddsmakers are rolling out the red carpet for over-wagers. Let’s think this through a little more because we’ve already established that LaPorta should go over the 10-touchdown mark (+210), so let’s grab the under in this particular wager.
If LaPorta does go over the 10-touchdown mark we still profit but protect ourselves if the Lions’ tight end falls off the NFL map for some reason.
- As most of you can see, there is a small window where we could lose both (8 or 9 touchdowns) but we think we’d rather give our +210 wager some support.
You can play it differently depending on how comfortable you are with each bet. You could keep each wager the same or go heavier on the -130 (under 7 wager), of course, that means you’ll be eating into your profit if the +210 hits.
It all comes down to how you feel about both of these wagers but we’ve been doing this long enough to know that when a number looks too good to be true it usually is. Week one NFL betting lines and a full slate of prop wagers are up, all the best to your bankroll this season.
For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
