NFL Passing Leaders Projections: How Will Aaron Rodgers Fare in First Season With Jets?

Plenty of Eyes will be Focused on Rookie Quarterbacks Young, Stroud and Richardson

May 24, 2023 98 4 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

NFL Passing Leaders Projections: How Will Aaron Rodgers Fare In His First Season with the New York Jets? — Elsa/Getty Images/AFP

Jackson Returning To Baltimore With Huge Contract, More Pass Catching Options
Big Stage For Rodgers
Let's Look At the Rookies
Keeping Tabs On Quarterback Carousel
Staying Put

QBs Still Talk of The Town

Like it or not, when it comes to the NFL not every player is created equal. The NFL standings serve as a stark reminder of the fierce competition and constant pursuit of excellence that drives players to push their limits and strive for greatness.

Quarterbacks get most of the attention and that was never more evident than seeing that in the current NFL Most Valuable Player odds, the top 28 players listed are quarterbacks. Keep that in mind when pondering how things will shake out among the 2023 NFL passing leaders.

There has been quite a bit of offseason news involving quarterbacks.

Aaron Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP, going from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets made just a few headlines.

The Carolina Panthers trading to secure the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft so they could draft former Alabama QB Bryce Young was another of the key offseason moves.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is priced at +700 to win the MVP award for the second NFL season in a row. If that happens he would join former Cleveland Browns running back Jim Brown as well as quarterbacks Joe Montana of the San Francisco 49ers, Brett Favre of the Green Bay Packers, Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts and Rodgers as the only back-to-back winners of the Associated Press’ MVP award.

At least one 2023 projection has Mahomes as the leader in passing yards followed by Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Here is a look at some prominent quarterbacks and the 2023 projections that could be of interest.

Big Stage for Rodgers

There isn’t a larger market to jump into than the one that Rodgers is about to experience.

A minor injury in OTAs results in countless breaking news alerts as so many eyes on are the future Hall of Famer.

The prop bet has been set at 4100.5 yards with the Moneyline set at -120 for Rodgers to come in either over or under that number. The story is the same when it comes to the 30.5 mark for touchdown passes.

When it comes to the NFL stats, Rodgers has thrown for more than 4,100 yards a total of eight times during his time with the Green Bay Packers and had at least 31 TD passes on seven occasions.

His numbers dipped to 3,695 passing yards and 26 touchdown passes in 2022. The talent level of the 2023 Jets offense is superior to what Rodgers played with during the 2022 season. Reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson could thrive with Rodgers throwing him the ball.

Let’s Look at the Rookies

Young has been given marks of 3750.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdown passes for the 2023 season by the sportsbook. Will he finish among the NFL passing leaders?

No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans also comes in at 22.5 touchdown strikes and is slightly behind Young with a prop bet of 3680.5 yards.

Young (-140) has the best odds to have more passing yards than Stroud (+135) or No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson (+550). The odds are identical when it comes to the pecking order in touchdown passes by the rookie quarterbacks.

It is still early and none of them have been named the starters for their NFL teams. A buyer beware sign should be put out there with seventh-round pick Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers Exhibit A. What were the odds that he would even see the field during the 2022 season? He not only played, but Purdy’s 13 touchdown passes were also the most of any rookie.

Keeping Tabs on Quarterback Carousel

Rodgers was not the only quarterback on the move during the offseason.

Jimmy Garoppolo went from the San Francisco 49ers to the Las Vegas Raiders. Longtime Raiders starter Derek Carr is now with the New Orleans Saints, Baker Mayfield headed to Tampa Bay following the retirement of Tom Brady. It is too early to tell where they will fall among the 2023 NFL passing leaders.

Garoppolo has -120 odds to either go over or under 3,650.5 yards. He has topped that number twice in his six seasons with the 49ers. If you project his 2,437 in 11 games during the 2022 season over 17 games, he would also have surpassed the 3,651-yard mark.

Jackson Returning to Baltimore With Huge Contract, More Pass Catching Options

Not all the quarterbacks had to submit a change of address form. After requesting a trade from the Baltimore Ravens, former MVP Lamar Jackson signed the most lucrative contract in NFL history.

The Ravens also drafted Boston College receiver Zay Jones in the first round and added veterans Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and Andy Isabella with the hope of having a more dynamic passing offense.

Jackson already has the chemistry with tight end Mark Andrews as well as receivers Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman.

The numbers to keep an eye on are 3650.5 passing yards (-120 to go either over or under), 24.5 touchdown passes (-105 to go over, -135 to finish under) and 872.5 rushing yards (-120 to go over or under).

When looking at the NFL player stats, Jackson’s career-high mark of 3,127 passing yards came during the 2019 season when he was named the MVP of the NFL.

With Rodgers now with the Jets, plenty of eyes will be on Jordan Love. The first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has appeared in just 10 regular-season games and has 606 passing yards and three TD passes.

Expectations are a little higher with -120 odds to either go over or under 3400.5 yards and a -130 mark to top 22.5 touchdown passes.