NFL Post Draft Analysis: Unders Cash in Conference Wagering

Fewer QBs Taken Than Expected as Levis Slips

The NFL post draft analysis shows it was a good night for the Southeastern Conference. Just not quite as good as expected. The SEC had nine players taken in the first round. But with the total on SEC players selected in the first round at 11.5, those taking the under cashed their tickets. Anyone betting the under had to lay -200. There were some anxious moments after eight of the first 16 players taken hailing from the SEC, but the under did cash.

It was the same story in the Big Ten Conference. The NFL Draft betting odds had the total at 8.5. But here, you had to lay -200 if you bet the over. Mazi Smith was the eighth Big Ten player taken at No. 27. Over bettors had five more picks to come, giving them a chance. But none came from the Big Ten and under bettors held on.

The total in the Big 12 was 4.5, with the under at -210 and the over at +170. The over came through as six players were taken from the conference. Over bettors had to wait until Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison was drafted No. 28 to cash their tickets.

The Atlantic Coast Conference also saw its over come through. With a total of 3.5, it didn’t look good for over bettors after just two players were taken through the 28th pick. But Clemson defensive linemen Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee went back-to-back at No. 29 and No. 30.

Defense Cashes Big

This year’s draft was supposed to be primarily about the offense. There were star quarterbacks, great wide receivers and stud linemen waiting to be taken. But the NFL post draft analysis shows there were 14 offensive players and 17 defensive players selected.

Anybody who wagered over 14.5 defensive players would be taken was certainly in good spirits. The under 14.5 was -400 and those taking the over were rewarded with a nice +300 payout. The opposite held true for those taking over 16.5 offensive players selected in the first round. The over was -400 and those taking the under received a +300 payout.

Even though it was a solid night for defensive players, they didn’t come from the expected positions. The total for defensive backs selected in the first round was 5.5. But the NFL post draft analysis shows just four of them were taken in the first round. Joey Porter slipped out of the first round and several others thought to be borderline first-round picks also dropped.

Quarterbacks, Tight Ends Fall Short

The NFL draft best players were the quarterbacks, where three of the first four picks came from. With a total of 4.5, the over – looked good early on. There were players such as Will Levis and Hendon Hooker available. But after the big three of Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson there was a perceived gap to the others. It showed, as no other quarterbacks were taken in the first round. That made a winner for anybody taking the under 4.5 at odds of -140.

Tight end was another position that looked to have some excellent draft choices. The total was 2.0 and with Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid and Darnell Washington out there, it appeared the worst an over bettor could do was push. But Kincaid turned out to be the only one of the three selected in the first round.

It was a rough night for the offensive linemen. The total was 5.5 with a over a hefty -500. But the big guys didn’t get much love from NFL teams on Thursday, with just four selected. That gave those taking the under a solid +350 return.

As expected, it was a good showing for wide receivers. Faced with a total of 3.5, it didn’t look good after there wasn’t a single wideout taken through the first 19 picks. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba started a run of four straight wide receivers at No. 20, making a winner of the over.

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