NFL Rookie Quarterbacks: Betting on ‘Big 3’ is There Value?

Rookies Vying for Glory if Teams Commit, Who Starts Season, Who Rides Bench?

May 19, 2023 156 3 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks: Betting on the 'Big 3' — Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images/AFP

Three of the first four picks in the 2023 NFL draft were spent on NFL rookie quarterbacks. So it’s no surprise to see plenty of betting possibilities on how that trio will fare in their rookie seasons. Bryce Young and C. J. Stroud were 1-2 in the draft and have the lowest NFL odds for various proposition wagers offered. Anthony Richardson has raw talent. How soon he puts it together is the key.

There were other NFL rookie quarterbacks taken in the 2023 draft. But with Will Levis and Hendon Hooker falling out of the first round, the betting props are aimed at the ‘Big 3.’ Young and Stroud both were mentioned as possible No. 1 overall picks. So it makes sense there isn’t a great deal of difference in most of their odds.

Bryce Young Prop Bets

Young Regular Season Passing Yards Over 3,750.5 (-120)

Young Regular Season Passing Yards Under 3,750.5 (-120)

This prop bet would require Young to be the Week 1 starter for the Panthers. There’s no reason why he wouldn’t be. Carolina didn’t draft him No. 1 overall to ride the bench. Not to mention, the Panthers will likely have millions tied up in him before the season rolls around.

Still, throwing for more than 3,750 yards would require Young to throw for nearly 221 yards per game. That could be asking a lot, as few QBs put up those types of NFL stats their rookie season. The Panthers threw for 3,246 yards last season.

Young Regular Season Touchdown Passes Over 22.5 (-110)

Young Regular Season Touchdown Passes Under 22.5 (-120)

Once again, Young has to be the Game 1 starter for the 2023 season. There were 15 teams that threw for 20 or fewer touchdowns last season, so the number is steep. But the Panthers figure to be throwing often, which will only help Young’s stats. Young will be a solid quarterback, but if he needs a bit of a learning curve, the stats will be hard to reach.

C.J. Stroud Prop Bets

Stroud Regular Season Passing Yards Over 3,680.5 (-120)

Stroud Regular Season Passing Yards Under 3,680.5 (-120)

As with Young, Stroud must be the Week 1 starter for this bet to have action. Stroud doesn’t need quite as many yards for the over, but it’s pretty close. The Texans did throw for 3,642 yards last season. So Stroud doesn’t have to be much better than Davis Mills to hit the over. It’s a tall order, but not out of reach for Stroud.

Stroud Regular Season Touchdown Passes Over 22.5 (+105)

Stroud Regular Season Touchdown Passes Under 22.5 (-145)

Both Young and Stroud have the same number of TD passes, although the odds are shifted towards the under with Stroud. Houston QBs threw for 20 touchdowns last season and Stroud has more talent. The Texans will throw plenty and it won’t be a complete surprise to see at least one of the overs hit with Stroud.

Big 3 Prop Bets

Most Regular Season Passing Yards

Anthony Richardson +550

Bryce Young -140

C. J. Stroud +135

Based on the individual proposition bets, Stroud offers a bit of value at +135. Young’s total of 3,750.5 is only 80 more yards than Stroud’s over/under for passing yards. This wager assumes all three will be the Week 1 starters for their respective teams.

Most Regular Season Touchdown Passes

Anthony Richardson +550

Bryce Young -140

C. J. Stroud +135

This wager offers the same odds as the passing yards prop. Once again, Stroud would appear to be the wager offering the best value at +135.

Most Regular Season Interceptions Thrown

Anthony Richardson +225

Bryce Young +150

C. J. Stroud +110

Stroud is the favorite here and it makes sense. Of the NFL rookie quarterbacks, he seems the most likely to throw interceptions. Richardson may be yanked if he’s throwing too many picks, while Carolina and Houston are more likely to ride with their franchise quarterbacks.

First QB to be Benched in Regular Season

Anthony Richardson -150

Bryce Young +200

C. J. Stroud +450

With all three premier NFL rookie quarterbacks needing to start in Week 1 for this bet to have action, Richardson is the favorite. He’s the most likely to need a bit of ‘seasoning’ and the Colts have a fair backup quarterback in Gardner Minshew. The odds on Young are a bit lower than expected.

QB to Start the Most Games

Anthony Richardson +165

Bryce Young +110

C. J. Stroud +125

All three NFL rookie quarterbacks are at plus money, although the odds on each are a bit on the low side. Richardson appears to be the most unlikely winner. The odds on Young and Stroud are nearly equal, so Young could be the way to go in this one.
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