Survivor Pools Getting Rocked by Underdogs
If you are still alive for NFL Survivor Pool Week 3, congratulations to you! The last two weeks have been a trainwreck for a significant portion of players. By Yahoo!’s official Survival Football Contest, 63.5 percent of players got eliminated in the first week alone. In Week 2, 40.3 percent of the remaining contestants bit the dust. Heading to the third week, there is a solid chance this trend continues.
Teams that Sent Players to Early Exits…
The two biggest culprits are the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 and the Cleveland Browns in Week 2. The Titans, who won 12 games last season, lost to the New York Giants by a point. Tennessee was favored by 5.5 points and went up 13-0 in halftime. But the team struggled to move the ball or contain the Giants’ running game as they accounted for nearly a fifth of the Yahoo! pool losing.
In Week 2, around the same amount of players got eliminated when the Browns got upended by the Jets. Cleveland was a 6.5-point favorite against the Jets but allowed 17 fourth-quarter points and lost – also by a single point.
Other popular favorites to lose include Denver and San Francisco in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 2. The Bengals were also the sixth-most picked team in Week 1 as it lost to the Steelers. The Super Bowl runner-ups have been a disappointing team at 0-2 as Joe Burrow and the offense continue to struggle.
Will Players Learn for Week 3?
While we’ve had a rough first two weeks, there is more data now for players to use for the NFL Survivor Pool in Week 3. As such, the 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs are the most-picked team as they take on the winless (0-1-1) Indianapolis Colts. Over a third of the pool has supported KC as it has not skipped a beat despite losing top receiver Tyreek Hill in the offseason. The Colts, on the other hand, laid an egg against Jacksonville.
Surprisingly, the Buffalo Bills are not commanding too much attention despite their performances. Buffalo leads the NFL in point differential with a whopping +55, which is 29 more than the second-placed Chiefs and Buccaneers. However, Buffalo is visiting the red-hot Dolphins in Miami. These divisional games can be tricky and avoiding them could be a viable NFL Survivor Pool strategy.
We already witnessed Indianapolis and Cincinnati fail to win as favorites in their divisional games. New Orleans also nearly lost to Atlanta in Week 1 while both Kansas City and Tampa Bay needed big fourth quarters to dispatch of the Chargers and New Orleans, respectively.
Underdogs Eating So Far
While many NFL Survivor Pool players lick their wounds, underdog bettors are eating. So far, underdogs have gone 11-20-1 straight-up (SU). That’s a 35.5 percent win rate for a profit of $130 if we were to wager $100 on every underdog this season. And on the NFL betting spread, underdogs are even more lucrative with a record of 18-13-1 against the spread (ATS).
Home underdogs have been the most frisky with a 5-8-1 SU record and a 9-5-1 record ATS. The Bears and Seahawks were both home underdogs with spreads at +6.0 and +6.5 points, respectively. They covered and won their games. And in Week 2, Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to a 20-17 victory over the Bengals as seven-point underdogs.
Underdogs on the road have not been as prolific at 6-12-0 SU and 9-8-0 ATS. However, both weeks saw at least one away underdog cash out big. These would be the Steelers and Giants in Week 1 and the Jets in Week 2.
For NFL Survivor Pool Week 3, keep an eye on the Colts and the Lions as underdogs. Indianapolis is desperate for a win as they host the Chiefs as 6.5-point underdogs while the Lions visit their division rivals, the Vikings, with a +6.0 spread. Indianapolis is 6-2 in its last eight home games against KC while the Lions beat the Vikings the last time it hosted them.Follow us on Twitter