NFL Week 13 MNF Analysis: Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Preview

The NFC South will bring down the curtain on Week 13 as the Saints and Buccaneers go head-to-head. In Monday Night Football. As ever, we weigh in on the NFL odds and deliver NFL predictions in this Saints vs Buccaneers Betting preview.

The Saints were shutout by the San Francisco 49ers while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were left stunned in an overtime loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 12.

Now, with both sides looking to bounce back in Week 13, something’s gotta give. If the NFL odds were any indication, the Buccaneers are tipped as the firm home favorites priced at -180 while the Saints are tipped at +163 in moneyline markets.

Elsewhere, Tampa Bay is laying 4 points to the Saints in point spread betting and the total is projected to a low 40½ points with both the Over and Under juiced to -110, respectively.

Will the Saints deliver the upset? Will the Bucs come through on their favorable odds? These are some of the questions we’re tackling as we dive further into this Saints vs Buccaneers Betting preview.

Saints vs Buccaneers NFL Odds

Last Updated: 12/2/2022	New Orleans Saints	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread		-4 (-110)
Moneyline	+163	-190
Over/Under	O40½ (-110)	U40½ (-110)

From Lookaheads to NFL Week 13

Preseason NFL lookaheads floated an early MNF line with Tampa Bay at – 6½. As did last week’s lookaheads that provided an unbiased sneak peek preview of the coming week’s action.

However, following Tampa Bay’s shock upset at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, the market reaction to Week 12’s results saw the official Week 13 opening line drop to Tampa Bay -4.

As things currently stand, the line has held firm for the better part of the week even though there is a conspicuous lean in this NFL bracket of betting towards the Saints plus the points. Should this NFL betting trend gain momentum in the coming days, it’s possible that this line will drop down to Tampa Bay -3½.

Tampa Bay NFL Betting Trends

• • Tampa Bay is 3-3 SU at home in its last six home games.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
  • Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games at home
  • TampaBay is 3-7-1 ATS as a favorite

New Orleans NFL Betting Trends

• New Orleans is 1-4 SU on the road in its last five away games
• New Orleans is 4-8-0 ATS in its last 12 games
• New Orleans is 0-5-0 ATS in its last five games on the road
• New Orleans is 2-6-0 ATS as an underdog

Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Verdict

Although the Buccaneers are in first place in the NFC, sitting inside the NFL playoff picture in 2022, their advantage in the table is slim at best. The Bucs are 5-6-0 on the season, a smidgen ahead of the Atlanta Falcons at 5-7-0 and a game and a half ahead of the Saints (4-8-0) thanks to a 20-10 win at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans in Week 2.

In this wide open NFC South, nothing is a guarantee – not even the fancied Brady and the Buccaneers coming through on their favorable betting online odds. That said, this is a must-win game for the hosts at -190 on the moneyline (bet $190 to win $100). One that they can reasonably expect to win at home at the expense of a divisional rival [New Orleans] that is struggling to stay relevant in 2022.

Betting Against Brady is, Well… Just That, A Gamble

Brady has only lost three games at home this season, all of which involved matchups against elite quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson. Andy Dalton doesn’t fall in the same class.

The Saints have lost three of their last four games, two of which were on the road and by double-digit margins. They lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points (l. 20-10 in Week 10) and to the San Francisco 49ers by 13 points (l. 13-0 in Week 12).

Aside from a ton of NFL injuries on both sides of the ball, the Saints are one of the most turnover prone teams in the league. This doesn’t bode well against Tampa Bay’s stout defense. They’re already one of the stingiest defenses in the league allowing the seventh fewest points through 12 weeks. Gifting them with turnovers on top of that is just asking for trouble. From a betting perspective, it underscores the merit of laying the points with the Bucs.

Division games can be unpredictable and that’s something that could turn this Saints vs Buccaneers betting preview on its head.. One can’t dismiss the Saints out of hand as the 4-point road underdogs, considering this is a must-win game for them as well.

However, if you agree that the Bucs are the better bet to win this game. Then, the value must be with the Buccaneers on the point spread as well. Especially now as the line has come down from a lookahead of -6½ to -4.

Any chance to buy low must be considered carefully. In this case, bettors are getting Brady and the Bucs at 2½ points less than first thought. That’s a value bet if ever there was one. Alternatively, if you have nerves of steel, wait and see if you can get the Bucs at -3½ or less.

Looking for more information about the NFL season? Here’s more!

• NFL Week 13 Odds: Philadelphia Eagles Favored in a Showdown of Division Leaders
• NFL Week 13 Odds Preview: Jets-Vikings Headline Early Games on CBS
• Bills vs Patriots Betting Odds: AFC East Meet on Thursday Night Football
• Packers vs Eagles Betting Odds: Ailing Packers Hope to Hang With NFC-Leading Eagles
• NFL Totals Odds Report: Games Still Going ‘Under’ Halfway Through 2022