NFL Week 5 Betting Preview Analysis & For All Games
Week five Brings Heat to London, Across NFC East, AFC Central, Cowboys/Rams Epic Battle
NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: The NFC East takes center stage with two significant matchups starting with breakfast in London. This week’s slate of NFC games promises a tight squeeze, and we promise your money’s worth. This is going to be fun, buckle up.
Here is your complete betting breakdown of the week 5 nfl schedule, highlighted by the New York Giants (3-1) going across the pond to face the Green Bay Packers (3-1). Closer to home the Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) put their unbeaten record on the line against the (2-2) Arizona Cardinals.
Giants vs Packers Game information:
- Game: Giants (3-1) at Packers (3-1)
- Time: 10 a.m., NFL Network
- Line/total: Packers -8 / 41.5
Matchup Analysis:
Continuing our NFL week 5 betting preview; this all comes down to Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and how healthy his sprained left ankle will be come game time. By every report, Jones is progressing fine and is anticipated to make the Sunday start. That’s good news considering backup Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win against Chicago Bears.
Taylor will travel to London and is listed as questionable. The public has moved this number from -6.5 to -8 they’ll bet against two quarterbacks who are less than 100% or they’ll get practice squad QB Davis Webb who has never thrown an NFL pass.
By the numbers:
The Giants have covered 7 of their last 10 games in the month of October since the 2020 season…New York is 2-0 ATS this season when receiving less than 45% of the overall tickets bet…Since 2018, the Packers are 10-11 ATS when favored by seven or more points.
Pick: Packers 26, Giants 20
Chargers vs Browns Game information:
- Game: Chargers (2-2) at Browns (2-2)
- Time: 10 a.m., CBS
- Line/total: Chargers -2.5 / 47.5
Matchup Analysis:
The Chargers will bring the league’s top-rated passing offense (1,250 yards) into Cleveland to face the Browns who must figure out how to avoid fourth-quarter collapses. After holding a 13-point lead with 2:02 to go against the Jets in week two and a 4th quarter advantage last week against Atlanta, the Browns are not too far away from an undefeated 2022.
The Chargers are last in second-half point differential (-44), making it important the Browns stay with them early.
By the numbers: The Browns have managed at least 350 net yards in every game this season, something that hasn’t happened since 1958…Cleveland covered three of four games against the AFC West in 21-22…Denver has covered two straight meetings against the Browns, but prior to the 2018 season, the Broncos failed to cover six straight meetings against Cleveland.
Pick: Browns 23, Chargers 20
Lions vs Patriots Game information:
- Game: Lions (1-3) at Patriots (1-3)
- Time: 10 a.m., FOX
- Line/total: Patriots -3.5 / 45.5
Matchup Analysis:
It’s been a long time since we’ve said there isn’t anything wrong with the Lions’ offense. Through four weeks, Detroit is averaging 35 points a game on the back of 437 total yards per game. Unfortunately with a 1-3 record to show for their efforts, their defense has not held up their end leaving bettors searching for the Lions’ true identity.
Last week, a furious comeback against Seattle made the score respectable, but the truth is, the ‘hawks were cruising until they forgot how to stop the run in the second half.
By the numbers: Bill Belichick has beaten the Lions in four of six meetings since 2000…Detroit is the first team in NFL history to score 140 points or more points while allowing 140 or more points in the first four games of the season…Since 2003, no team in the NFL has been a more reliable bet than the Patriots, going 179-120-10 (59.87%) +5415 units… The Lions are 147-154 ATS, -1425 units in that same span.
Pick: Patriots 23, Lions 17
Falcons vs Bucs Game information:
- Game: Falcons (2-2) at Buccaneers (2-2)
- Time: 10 a.m., Fox
- Line/total: Buccaneers -10, 46.5
Matchup Analysis:
After wins against Seattle and Cleveland, the Falcons are back at .500 and worth a look as a double-digit dog. We don’t think any of us are sure where the Buccaneers are right now with their leader, Tom Brady, hiring divorce lawyers during a two-game losing streak. It’s been 20 years since a Tom Brady team has produced a 3-game losing streak so don’t expect a loss Sunday, but -10 is a lot to ask with the Falcons smelling blood in the water.
By the numbers: Brady is a perfect 10-0 against the Falcons. He will match John Elway (vs. New England) and Andrew Luck (vs. Tennessee) 11 straight wins against one opponent with a win…Every Falcon game this season has been decided by four points or less…Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS in 2022…The Falcons have turned a profit in three of the past four seasons as an underdog.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 24
Seahawks vs Saints Game information:
- Game: Seahawks (2-2) at Saints (1-3)
- Time: 10 a.m., Fox
- Line/total: Saints -5.5, 46.5
Matchup Analysis:
There is so much talk about how sloppy the Saints have been over the last three weeks, but the truth is the 11 penalties by the Seahawks last week were overshadowed by their 49 total points. With this number moving in Seattle’s direction, bettors have long forgotten how Detroit almost erased a 15-point, 4th-quarter deficit. With the Seahawks’ defense ranked 31st, it’s a good rule of thumb to not put your cash behind poor defenses.
By the numbers: Only Tom Brady (314) has averaged more passing yards per game against Seattle than Andy Dalton (305.7)…The Saints have produced seven straight winning seasons against the spread…Only the Patriots (66-47-4 ATS) have been better than the Saints (67-48-2 ATS) since 2015.
Pick: Saints 26, Seahawks 17
Texans vs Jaguars Game information:
- Game: Texans (0-3) at Jaguars (2-2)
- Time: 10 a.m., CBS
- Line/total: Jaguars -7 / 43.5
Matchup Analysis:
After watching Trevor Lawrence turn the ball over five times I’m not rushing to bet the Jaguars on a consistent basis, but I do think the Texans have shown up on the schedule at the perfect time with Jacksonville having plenty to be fired up about.
The Texans have won eight straight games against the Jags, tying them for the fourth-longest streak by one franchise over another. Even with the turnovers, Jacksonville had a chance to tie it on their last drive that lasted one play after another Lawrence fumble.
By the numbers: Since 2008, Jacksonville is 36-67 ATS (34.95%) at home, producing just two winning seasons against the number (2010, 2017)…Jacksonville has failed to cover 11 of their last 16 home games as a 7-point favorite or more…Only the New York Jets (24-40-1) have been worse against the number than the Jaguars (24-39-2) since 2018.
Pick: Jaguars 21, Texans 17
Steelers vs Bills Game information:
- Game: Steelers (1-3) at Bills (3-1)
- Time: 10 a.m., CBS
- Line/total: Bills -14 / 46.5
Matchup Analysis:
The number is right on where it should be according to our power rankings so this breakdown will focus on the total. With Kenny Pickett getting his first career start for the Steelers, it’s not a surprise to see the public pushing this total down some.
Truth is, we think both Pickett and Josh Allen are going to be in a shootout for most of the night until Buffalo pulls away in the second half. Forget about the three picks last week, Pickett will be much better. Steelers have won seven of their last nine against Buffalo but are just 1-2 against a Josh Allen-led Bills.
By the numbers: Josh Allen has thrown for at least one touchdown in 18 straight home games, tied with Jim Kelley for the longest streak in Bills history…Since 2016, the over is 29-21 (58%) when the Bills are home…The Bills beat Baltimore, 23-20, despite losing the TOP category 38:10 to 21:50.
Pick: Bills 38, Steelers 24
Dolphins vs Jets Game information:
- Game: Dolphins (3-1) at Jets (2-2)
- Time: 10 a.m., CBS
- Line/total: Dolphins -3 / 45.5
Matchup Analysis:
The Jets have lost 12 straight games inside the AFC East, but that’s going to change Sunday. With Tua Tagovailoa out with a concussion, Teddy Bridgewater will get the start behind center for Miami. Zach Wilson will get his second start of the season after a comeback win against the Steelers last week.
Wilson seemed to get better as the game went on after starting out 8-24 for 124 yards. In the fourth Wilson was 10-12, 128 yards, and two touchdowns. Expect that to carry over.
By the numbers: The Miami Dolphins are 29th in rushing and have yet to have a 100-yard rusher…Miami has produced a spread profit over the last four seasons but failed to cover five straight October games…40 of the Jets’ 70 points have come in the final two minutes of either the first or second half.
Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 21
Titans vs Commanders Game information:
- Game: Titans (2-2) at Commanders (1-3)
- Time: 10 a.m., CBS
- Line/total: Titans -2.5, 42.5
Matchup Analysis:
This number seems off to us, especially when the send-out was a pick. The Titans have won two straight games to get back to .500, and face a Commander’s team who have lost three straight. We expected Tennessee to open as 3-5 point favorites so when we saw ‘pick’, it started to look like a trap.
Tennessee has started out strong in most games this season but after the first quarter, they’ve been outscored 91-40.
By the numbers: Tennessee is 19-18 ATS over the last three seasons, 90-114 ATS (-2887 units) since 2009…As a favorite, the Titans have failed to cover 13 of their last 21 games and 53 of their last 91 games (41.76%)…Commanders head coach Ron Rivera is 91-83-3 ATS in his career.
Pick: Commanders 21, Titans 20
Bears vs Vikings Game information:
- Game: Bears (2-2) at Vikings (3-1)
- Time: 10 a.m., Fox
- Line/total: Vikings -7.5 / 43.5
Matchup Analysis:
For a team that talks about how the offense will only improve when QB Kirk Cousins and head coach Kevin O’Connell have some games under their belt, the Vikings‘ 3-1 start isn’t bad. Until the Vikings can show the ability to finish off drives consistently, we hesitate to lay more than a touchdown.
Cousins and Bears QB Justin Fields are 30th and 31st in completion percentage. Experienced bettors know that when you have two struggling quarterbacks, you guessed it, bet the over.
By the numbers: To get to 3-1, Minnesota had to manufacture two fourth-quarter comebacks in each of the last two weeks…Since 2020, Minnesota is 16-21 ATS…The Vikings have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 games as a 7-point favorite or more.
Pick: Vikings 26, Bears 20
49ers vs Panthers Game information:
- Game: 49ers (2-2) at Panthers (1-3)
- Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS
- Line/total: 49ers -6.5/38.5
Matchup Analysis:
This looks too easy. The NFL’s worst offense is facing the league’s best defense. The Niners lead the league in opposing three-and-outs (40.90%). We expect Panthers OC Ben McAdoo to move Mayfield out of the pocket to create more time to go through his progression.
This will also help the problem of Mayfield’s passes getting tipped at the line of scrimmage. Last week, the 6-1 QB had five passes tipped by the Cardinals.
By the numbers: The 49ers (1.18) and Panthers (1,63) are the top two teams in red-zone defense. These are the only three teams, along with Dallas (1.71) that allow less than two yards per play inside their 20…Since 2014, the Niners are 58-72 ATS, and Carolina is slightly better at 62-69-2, but 35-29-1 ATS at home.
Pick: 49ers 23, Panthers 20
Cowboys vs Rams Game information:
- Game: Cowboys (3-1) at Rams (2-2)
- Time: 1:25 p.m., FOX
- Line/total: Rams -5.5, 43.5
Matchup Analysis:
The Rams OL better figure things out quickly against one of the most talented defenses in the league, and one that has seen Matthew Stafford gets sacked 16 times this season.
If they can protect Stafford, the Rams have a reasonable chance of creating their own havoc against Cooper Rush who has ridden his defense to three straight wins after Dak Prescott was sidelined with a broken thumb. Expect to see the Rams to feature more Cooper Kupp who had 14 catches against San Francisco, and leads the NFL with 42 catches.
By the numbers: Dallas is 8-8-2 ATS playing in the Pacific time zone since 2004, 1-3 since 2020…October has been the best month for the Rams, covering 41 of 76 since 2003. It’s the only month Los Angeles has produced a profit in that span. Sean McVay is 3-1 ATS against Dallas.
Pick: Rams 26, Cowboys 16
Eagles vs Cardinals Game information:
- Game: Eagles (4-0) at Cardinals (2-2)
- Time: 4:25 p.m., FOX
- Line/total: Eagles -5.5/48.5
Matchup Analysis:
The Jaguars thought they had the Eagles right where they wanted them after jumping out to a 14-0 lead last week. From that point on Philadelphia outscored the Jags 29-7 to get the spread cover. Arizona must win the turnover battle against the Eagles who bring a +8 TO margin into Glendale.
The Eagles have had some problems winning in the desert, dropping 10 of their last 13 meetings. They last won in Arizona in 2001.
By the numbers: The Cardinals have outscored their opponents, 49-13, in the fourth quarter this season…As a dog, the Cardinals have posted four straight profitable seasons (27-15 ATS, +1065 units since 2018)…Arizona has covered six of its last seven meetings…The Eagles are 31-37 ATS since 2018, and 14-20 ATS on the road.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Eagles 23
Bengals vs Ravens Game information:
- Game: Bengals (2-2) at Ravens (2-2)
- Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
- Line/total: Ravens -3.5, 47.5
Matchup Analysis:
Confidence won’t be an issue for Joe Burrow when he leads the Bengals back into Baltimore in an attempt to beat them for the third straight time. The last time these got together it was a revenge spot for the Ravens after getting humiliated 41-17 earlier in the year.
Burrow threw for 525 yards in the rematch while putting up another 41 points, sweeping the Ravens for the first time since 2015. Burrow has thrown for six touchdowns without an interception in his last three games.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 2-2 ATS this season, but are working on their third straight profitable season (21-16 ATS, +320 units since 2020)…Cincinnati is 11-7 ATS on the road since 2020…Baltimore has failed to cover 9 of their last 14 as a favorite.
Pick: Bengals 23, Ravens 20
Raiders vs Chiefs Game information:
- Game: Raiders (1-3) at Chiefs (3-1)
- Time: 8:15 p.m., ESPN
- Line/total: Chiefs -7.5/51.5
Matchup Analysis:
In conclusion of our NFL week 5 betting preview; the Raiders can turn their season around with a win in Kansas City in primetime. Las Vegas will likely try to establish Josh Jacobs as much as possible to keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes. Jacobs is coming off a 144-yard effort against Denver, while prized free agent Davante Adams had his best game as a Raider with 109 yards receiving.
Point is, Las Vegas has the firepower to stay with Kansas City for most of the night but their inability to produce in the red zone will bite them again.
By the numbers: The Raiders have failed to produce a profit for bettors since moving to Las Vegas (25-28, -461 units)…Since 2012, Vegas/Oakland is just 74-88 ATS (-1818 units)…The Raiders are 34-29-1 ATS when an underdog of five points or more since 2012…KC is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a winning record. Be sure to stay tuned right here all season long for the latest NFL standings 2022, and the most recent betting odds.
Pick: Chiefs 26, Raiders 23
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