NFL Wildcard: Dolphins vs Chiefs Free Pick
Betting Money on The Dolphins, Tickets Favor Chiefs
It wasn’t a big surprise to see betting tickets coming in on the Kansas City Chiefs, there’s been a betting relationship with the Chiefs which is why the number has been pushed up to KC -4.5 after opening -3.5. Miami is playing their fourth NFL playoff game since 2008 while the Chiefs are playing in their 12th postseason game since 2019 (8-4 ATS). The total has settled in at 44 after opening 44.5 with 87% of the money on the under.
AFC Wildcard
Dolphins vs Chiefs 
Day/Time:
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Dolphins vs Chiefs Quick Slant
Perhaps the relationship between Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift turns out to be a positive heading into the first round of the 2024 postseason. There was a massive spotlight on the Chiefs but most of that was because of what was going on in the suite with Swift cheering on Kelce.
There has been very little talk about how Kansas City was 5-5 over their last 10 games and they had to win the last two NFL games to get to that mark. The Miami Dolphins will have to deal with something their not used to and it has nothing to do with their opponent.
Thursday temperatures in Kansas City will be around 20 degrees. Better enjoy that because at kickoff bettors can expect temperatures four below zero and wind. Not exactly the 65-degree weather the Dolphins will be leaving behind.
Miami’s Powerful Offense Must Fight Through Elements
We talked about this once before but with all the bad weather the Fish will have to fight through, is it better to know where you’re going on offense than have to react on defense? What makes the Miami run is their ability to put defenses into a pick-your-poison.
Tyreek Hill missed the 1800 receiving mark by one yard but much of the connection with Tua Tagovailoa happens because of Raheem Mostert’s 1012 yards on the ground. Mostert is dealing with an ankle/knee injury that has him listed as questionable on the NFL injury report but we would be shocked if the veteran didn’t give it a go.
He was healthy enough to practice on a limited basis this week. Jaylen Waddle and Hill were also limited in practice this week. We would like to point out that bad ankles and bad weather don’t cooperate so expect Devon Achane to get some carries as he has the last couple of weeks.
No matter who starts, the Dolphins’ offensive line is the best run-blocking line in football, paving the way for a running game that averaged 5.1 yards per attempt.
It should be noted that when comparing NFL quarterback stats, it would be a surprise to some that Tua owns a big advantage with 4624 yards passing to go with 29 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 101.1 QB Rating. Mahomes threw for 4183 yards, 27 Touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 92.6 QBR.
Pressure On Tua Key To Chiefs Success
The quicker you can make Tua uncomfortable the better and that means using that pass rush to get the Dolphins quarterback onto the tundra as many times possible early in the game.
Kansas City finished second in the NFL with 3.4 sacks per game. In the trenches will be where this game is won or lost when the Chiefs line up against one of the best offensive lines in the game.
Aside from Swift, the talk among media members is when will the team find consistency on offense to match a dominant defense. This has been a group that’s allowed the offense to find their way for much of the NFL season.
It was pointed out in a press conference that they have the luxury of not having to rely on the offense to run a four-minute offense to keep the defense off the field.
Much of the praise has to go to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who has improved his defensive unit since taking over in 2019. He has coached in five Super Bowls, three with KC, winning three.
Can We Trust The Public In The Postseason?
During the 2023 regular season, NFL teams receiving more than 50.1% of the money wagered were 158-142-1 (52.67%), good enough to squeeze out a 0.3% return on investment. With Kansas City receiving less than 55% of the money so far we can break that record down further.
Teams getting between 50.1% and 59.9% of the money wagered are 70-63-4 (52.6%). With that being said, contrarians shouldn’t run away from betting the Chiefs but what do historical numbers in the postseason about betting patterns? Teams receiving at least 50.1% of the money are 24-25 ATS since 2019 and teams between 50.1% and 59.9% are just 17-19 ATS.
Those numbers indicate that the regular season success by the betting public doesn’t carry over to the postseason. One more way to break this down is how the Chiefs fare when the public backs them in the postseason.
The numbers are in favor of the public with a 5-2 ATS mark in the postseason when getting public support. Current Super Bowl odds have Kansas City at +1000, and Miami is +1600. We conclude our Dolphins vs Chiefs free pick analysis with our official selection.
The Points Are Hard To Pass Up
We don’t think there could be more movement with the number because when the weekend warriors get a better idea of the weather conditions, you can bet the Kansas City money will be flying.
Whether is moves or doesn’t we’re going to take the 4.5 points with Miami because when you have an offense that can beat opponents in a variety of ways behind an offensive line that can embarrass defenses, we think the Chiefs will be exposed with an offense that can’t keep pace.
Another aspect of the game that has been overlooked is the Dolphins have the more mobile quarterback a weapon that can make a massive difference. To us, it comes down to the Dolphins running game, something Kansas City does have. Our official selection is Miami and the under.
That does it for our Dolphins vs Chiefs free pick analysis, we wish you nothing but the best with your NFL wild card picks this weekend.
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