Opening NFL 2023 Win Totals: The Pre-Draft Tier List

Expect The Odds and Totals to Adjust in the Next Few Weeks

Ranking All 32 Teams With the 2023 Win Totals

The 2023 NFL regular season is… not even close to happening. But folks can bet on how teams will do using the newly opened NFL 2023 win totals. NFL Free Agency opened a few weeks ago and while some big-name players are still in limbo, the books are confident enough to gauge how all the teams are going to do. Before there are any more significant movements, here is how the 32 NFL teams stack up by tiers.

Better Luck in 2024? The Also-Rans of 2023

32. Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 wins
31. Houston Texans: 5.5 wins
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 wins
29. Indianapolis Colts: 6.5 win

Bringing up the rear are the Arizona Cardinals. The opening NFL 2023 win totals have Arizona winning 5-6 games with early bird bettors already hammering the ‘under’. Quarterback Kyler Murray is injured and may even miss the whole season while top receiver DeAndre Hopkins is expected to get dealt.

Houston moves out of last place but just barely. The team finished second-last on the NFL standings last season and could be a bottom-three outfit again even with the second-overall pick. Houston’s AFC South rival, the Colts, also pick just behind them in this year’s draft. But expect these totals to quickly go off the board if and when star quarterback Lamar Jackson is acquired by Indianapolis (favored to do so at +200).

Club 7.5 Wins: Too Many Unknowns for These Squads

28. Green Bay Packers
27. Washington Commanders
26. Las Vegas Raiders
25. Tennessee Titans
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. Carolina Panthers
22. Chicago Bears
21. New England Patriots
20. Los Angeles Rams

The NFL betting odds are all over the place depending on where you look for these teams. For one, most of these teams face too many questions like who will be starting at quarterback? That’s a hot topic for the Packers, Commanders, and Panthers. Several of the others are also contenders to acquire Jackson like Atlanta (+450), New England (+550), and Washington (+800).

For Green Bay, Jordan Love is the incumbent starter should Aaron Rodgers finally get traded. The enigmatic quarterback says he is going to the Jets. But an official trade has yet to be done. The books have adjusted these win totals on the assumption that it will get done before Week 1.

As for Carolina, the Panthers hold the first overall pick in the draft. The odds strongly favor Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud to be their pick. But Alabama’s Bryce Young could also be taken. Either way, many bettors are bullish on the Panthers’ chances so expect their 7.5-win total to go up, especially if their new QB adapts to the NFL fast enough.

The 2022 Super Bowl Champions, the Rams, stand out here. This team is at a crossroads and appears to be in the middle of a rebuild. It traded away top cornerback Jalen Ramsey while letting middle linebacker Bobby Wagner return to Seattle. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and top receiver Cooper Kupp are all coming back from injuries as well.

Teams on the Bubble: Playoff

19. New York Giants
18. Seattle Seahawks
17. Denver Broncos
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
15. Minnesota Vikings
14. Baltimore Ravens

These teams are either overachievers from the past season who could regress this 2023 or the opposite. The Giants, Seahawks, and Vikings could all miss the playoffs this season as they all blew past their regular season win totals last year. Their NFL 2023 win totals have them winning eight or nine games, which is below what they all won in 2022.

The Broncos are looking to trend upwards, on the flip side. Last season was a disaster for them as they won just five games and finished last in the division. That is half of what their 10.5-win total set in the 2022 preseason. But with Sean Payton behind the bench, on top of offensive line improvements, Denver could come back with a vengeance.

All eyes are also on Baltimore. The Ravens are currently embroiled in a stand-off with Jackson, its disgruntled quarterback. He has asked to be dealt and Baltimore will likely humor him if he and a team can come to terms on a contract. Bettors are steaming the ‘over’ for this team as Tyler Huntley could still make the Ravens formidable.

Dark Horses or Pretenders? Teams With 9.5 Wins

13. Cleveland Browns
12. New Orleans Saints
11. Miami Dolphins
10. New York Jets
9. Dallas Cowboys
8. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Detroit Lions

What a time to be alive! The Browns, Jets, and Lions are all in the top-15 based on these 2023 NFL win totals. However, the public views them all quite differently with Cleveland’s line being the most variable. It depends on how fast Deshaun Watson can recapture his form from the Texans. If he’s not any better than last season, Cleveland will be a top team to fade when betting online.

For the Jets and Lions, these teams could have new quarterbacks. New York has begun making room to absorb Rodgers’s massive contract by trading Elijah Moore to the Browns. It also restructured the contracts of a handful of veterans. But wait. There’s more. The Jets are also favored to acquire Hopkins at +250. How it manages to fit both Rodgers’s and Hopkins’s deals will take quite some accounting.

Meanwhile, Detroit is a serious player in acquiring Jackson. Listed at +400, only the Colts have shorter odds to land the former MVP. The Lions already lit up the league last season and its fifth-ranked offense could be even more potent with Jackson. They are also favored to win the NFC North at +150, which would be the first time in franchise history.

Most of the teams here are shaky contenders at best. A few may flirt with a deep playoff run but most will likely be in the mix for a playoff spot.

The Elite Six: The Super Bowl Favorites?

6. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.5 wins
5. Buffalo Bills: 10.5 wins
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 wins
3. San Francisco 49ers: 11.5 wins
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 11.5 wins
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 wins

The Chiefs lead this pack that should feature the best teams this coming season. Kansas City lost Orlando Brown Jr., a critical player on their offensive line to its rivals, the Chiefs. This should only deepen their rivalry as both teams are expected to dominate through the regular season again.

The Super Bowl runner-ups, the Eagles, have a much lower win total than its league-leading 14 wins last year. But that’s expected given both its tougher schedule and lost players. Lead running back Miles Sanders left for Carolina while top secondary player Chauncey Gardner-Johnson signed with Detroit among others.

As for San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan’s group made another deep playoff run despite being hamstrung by injuries. It’s unknown who their quarterback will be as Brock Purdy recovers from injury while former third overall picks Trey Lance and Sam Darnold battle it out in training camp. Either way, unless the team is decimated by injuries, expect San Francisco to be a top contender again.
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