Somehow, the Las Vegas Raiders are 5-5 on the season. They’ll likely be under .500 when Sunday is over, as the Raiders visit the Miami Dolphins in an early Sunday game. Miami is 5-0 against the NFL point spreads when favored, winning by an average score of 39.6-18.2. The Raiders are just 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year. Miami is a prohibitive favorite in this game, as the Raiders vs Dolphins preview shows the Dolphins favored by 13.5, and the total is 46.5.
Raiders Beating Weak Foes
The Raiders have won the games they’re supposed to, for the most part. Their five victories have come against teams with a combined 15-32 record. Not one of them has a winning record. A bit part of that is the team’s offense has been struggling to score. Las Vegas averages 17.2 points per game against teams, allowing 22.8 points on average. Las Vegas doesn’t run the ball particularly well, gaining just 3.4 yards per run.
The passing game hasn’t been great, either. The Raiders are gaining 6.1 yards per pass and just 4.9 yards per play overall.
The Las Vegas defense has been pretty solid this season, allowing 20.5 points. But again, it’s a matter of who they’ve played. In the five wins, the Raiders are allowing 12.8 points per game. In the five losses, Las Vegas is allowing 28.2 points. The Raiders are making the most of their NFL schedule, and you can’t fault them there. But this is a tough game, no matter how you look at it.
Miami Losses Come Against NFL’s Finest
The Dolphins bring a 6-3 record into the game, losing to Buffalo, Philadelphia and Kansas City. There’s no disgrace losing to those three teams. But if they want to move up in the AFC standings, the Dolphins need to beat some of the better teams on their schedule.
The Dolphins’ offensive numbers are still going to be a little bit misleading due to the 70 points scored against Denver earlier this year.
The pure numbers have Miami averaging 43.5 points at home and 31.7 points overall. The 31.7 number is probably a better barometer of where the Dolphins’ offense is at. Miami runs the ball well, gaining 5.6 yards per carry, and Las Vegas doesn’t stop the run too well, allowing 4.6 yards per rush. Naturally, the Dolphins have some solid passing numbers, as well.
The Dolphin defense leaves a little to be desired, with Miami allowing 25 points per game to teams scoring 20.3 points. The Dolphins hold teams pretty close to their season numbers in total yards. But Miami is allowing a point for every 12.9 yards they allow, which ranks No. 29.
What to Expect
The Raiders vs Dolphins preview is expecting Las Vegas to come out and throw the ball, which they do a little more than they rush. Las Vegas is gaining just 275.4 total yards per game but has fared a little better trying to move the ball through the air. The Dolphins are allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, so Vegas will have a tough time trying to run the football.
Miami will come out and run the ball a little more than usual. Las Vegas really struggles trying to stop the rush, and the Dolphins are one of the best running teams in the NFL. The Dolphins should make the Raiders commit to stopping the run, which should open up the passing game a bit.
Who to Bet On?
The Raiders vs Dolphins preview knows the line is high, it’s the fifth-highest point spread we’ve seen this season. The favored teams have gone 3-1 against the spread so far. Coupled with Miami’s record as a favorite, it’s going to be hard to pull the trigger on Las Vegas in this one.
The total appears to be a shade on the low side. But the Raiders aren’t scoring a lot, and the defense has helped keep them in a couple of games they had no business being close in. But the Dolphins can put points on the scoreboard. The Dolphins are 2-0 straight-up and ATS after a loss this season, scoring 31 points both games.
You never like to lay so many points in the NFL, but Miami looks to be the way to go in this one.