Super Bowl MVP Closing Odds Report: Hurts and Mahomes Neck-and-Neck

Mahomes’s Line is Gaining Traction

We’ve seen this type of MVP race before: Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are the top two contenders for an MVP award. But while Mahomes won the regular season MVP, the Super Bowl MVP closing odds still slightly favor his counterpart. It’s not by much as Mahomes’s line has gained action and is now down to +125 (from +130), which is not that different from Hurts’s line of +120.

Mahomes vs Hurts: Whose Line is Better?

Depending on how bettors look at this, a case can be made for either player to have better value on their betting lines. Mahomes is the ever-so-slight underdog because his Chiefs are also underdogs. A player from a losing team has only won the Super Bowl MVP once in 67 Super Bowls: Chuck Howley from Super Bowl V back in 1971.

For Mahomes to cash his bet, he’ll have to perform admirably and his Chiefs will have to win. He won the Super Bowl MVP two years ago even if he did not put up the best stats. He threw for 286 yards, scored three total touchdowns, and tossed two interceptions for a 78.1 passer rating.

But history also does not favor the 2023 NFL MVP. The league’s regular season MVP has not won the Super Bowl in that same season since 1999-2000 when Kurt Warner did it for the St. Louis Rams. Of course, the public is betting that Mahomes can buck this trend as his Super Bowl MVP closing odds tighten.

As for Hurts, he has not played his best ball since returning from a shoulder injury. He rushed for a touchdown against San Francisco but threw for just 121 yards for a 72.2 passer rating. Maybe these kinds of stats is enough to capture the trophy if he makes enough clutch plays to seal Philadelphia’s victory.

Otherwise, another key member on either team could swoop in and win this award beginning with the top skill players.

Quarterbacks Don’t Always Win the Award

Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP award 61 percent of the time since 2000. That 39 percent is still a significant possibility that someone other than the signal caller (priced at a whopping -500) will win it. Wide receiver (+700) and tight end (+1100) are the next viable choices.

Travis Kelce (+1200) is the reason why tight end’s line is not longer. Despite this position not winning the Super Bowl MVP award ever, Kelce has been so dominant and could win this if he has a big game. On the flip side, wide receivers have won the award the most after quarterbacks. A.J. Brown (+2000) and Devonta Smith (+2500 are the top picks for the Eagles.

Alternatively, a defender (+700) could win the award. However, linebackers (+2800) have won the Super Bowl MVP award three times since 2000. Haason Reddick (+4000) could be the leading candidate on the defense. He was a big difference-maker against the 49ers. He had 2.0 sacks and forced a fumble, which he recovered.

The Chiefs’ Chris Jones is his counterpart and is similarly lined (+4000). He too had a big game in the Conference Championship as he sacked Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow twice while adding three tackles for loss and five quarterback hits altogether. Defensive linemen like him are, likewise, 28-1 to capture the award.

Which Longshots Have a Chance?

The Eagles also have a loaded secondary that will make its presence felt. Darius Slay (+6500), James Bradberry (+20000), or C.J. Gardner-Johnson (+20000) could make big interceptions and seal the deal. Dexter Jackson is the only player from the secondary to win the award since 2000 and he did it by recording two picks in a lopsided win. A similar turnout here could cash one of these longshot Bowl MVP odds.

And going back to the offense, the Eagles’ rushing attack could dominate here. Between Miles Sanders (+2200), Kenneth Gainwell (+8000), and Boston Scott (+15000) one of them could win. Sanders is the starter but the Super Bowl MVP closing odds have Gainwell’s line shrinking (from +10000). The backup shredded the Giants in the Divisional Round, and Scott is the team’s red zone back of choice. He has scored a TD in three straight games.

For the Chiefs, any skill player outside Kelce could be a hero here. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+6500) could step up for the receivers while Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon (+4000 each) will lead the rushing attack.
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