Super Bowl Over and Under Props: Number of 1st TD Scorer
Sportsbooks Going Low for Fun Prop Bet
Super Bowl means proposition betting and there are no shortages of Super Bowl over and under props this year. But one of the most fun is predicting the number of the player who scores the first touchdown in the game.
While NFL prop bets take on a new life in the Super Bowl, it’s always nice to see something a bit unusual and this bet fits the bill. Those who find the NFL spreads on the Super Bowl too tough to predict, can find plenty of prop bets to have action on. The over/under for the jersey number of the player who scores the first touchdown is 11.5. The over 11.5 is -110 and the under 11.5 is at -120. The first thing to do when looking at this prop bet is to see which players on both teams have jersey numbers 11 or lower.
| PLAYER | STATS |
|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13 rushing TDs |
| Zach Pascal | 1 receiving TD |
| DaVonta Smith | 7 receiving TDs |
| A.J. Brown | 11 receiving TDs |
The Eagles scored 57 rushing and receiving touchdowns on the season, along with two by defensive players for a total of 59. Players with the number 11 or lower accounted for 32 of those touchdowns, which is 54.2% of Philadelphia’s touchdowns.
Of the Eagles’ 17 regular season games, players with numbers 12 or higher scored first nine times. The Philadelphia Eagles also saw players with higher numbers score first both playoff games.
| PLAYER | STATS |
|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 rushing TD, 9 receiving TDs |
| Ronald Jones | 1 rushing TD |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | 3 receiving TDs |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 rushing TDs |
| Marques Valdez-Scantling | 2 receiving TDs |
The Kansas City Chiefs had a total of 59 rushing and receiving touchdowns. K.C. also had two scored by defensive players for a total of 61. Players with a number of 11 or lower accounted for just 20 TDs or 32.7%.
Kansas City had 41 passing touchdowns on the season and 12 of those went to Travis Kelce (No. 87). McKinnon was the team’s second-leading TD scorer.
In Kansas City’s 17 regular season games, players with a number of 12 or higher scored the first TD in 10 games. Kelce had the first TD in six NFL games, but most of those were early on. Kelce scored first in four of the Chiefs’ first five games. He also scored first in games No. 10 and 11. But after game 11, Kansas City had just two games where the first TD scorer had a number lower than 11.5. Five of the six last regular season games had low number players score first. Also, Kelce scored first in both Kansas City postseason games.
 Super Bowl O/U Prediction
On the basis of just numbers, the over 11.5 would be the way to go on this one of the Super Bowl over and under props. Players with a number of 11 or lower accounted for 52 of 120 combined touchdowns, which is 43.33% of all TDs.
The Chiefs are in a bit of an under trend regarding jersey number. Philadelphia is in the opposite boat for the Super Bowl over and under props. Seven of the last nine Eagles games has seen a player with a number of at least 12 score first. There are some talented players with low jersey numbers. But the math says to lay the -120 and bet the over 11.5.
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