Patriots Fell to Third in “Odds to Win” AFC East Title in 2022
The New England Patriots’ future betting odds are not only not predicted to win the AFC East – that it was dominating until the recent surge by the Buffalo Bills; but New England is currently third in the odds to win the division after being tied with Miami in early June.
The Patriots didn’t get much practice as an underdog during the Tom Brady-led glory years: however, New England was 3-3 against the spread as the underdog in 2021.
Expectations are high for second-year quarterback Mac Jones as he is listed at +6000 in the regular season MVP odds. You can check for NFL news in Pointspreads, and take a look at these odds as well as other player totals in our New England Patriots’ future betting-odds cheat sheet.
New England came into the 2021 season with a projected win total of nine. An early January wins over Jacksonville put New England over that mark with a 10th win of the season. A 47-17 loss to division rival Buffalo in New England’s playoff opener brought a disappointing end to a season of progress.
Super Bowl: +4000
|Rot||Odds to win AFC Conference||Moneyline|
|222||Kansas City Chiefs||5.50|
|223||Los Angeles Chargers||8.00|
|231||Las Vegas Raiders||15.00|
|232||New England Patriots||21.00|
|235||New York Jets||67.00|
|Rot||Odds to win AFC East||Moneyline|
|102||New England Patriots||+450|
|104||New York Jets||+2000|
Regular Season Wins
|ROT||NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – 2022-2023 NFL REGULAR SEASON WINS||MONEYLINE|
|3001||Over 8½ Wins||-125|
|3002||Under 8½ Wins||-105|
All 17 games must be played for wagers to have action unless the outcome has already been determined
|Rot||New England Patriots to make the playoffs||Moneyline|
When looking at the NFL future odds, the Patriots have fallen behind the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East projections. The New England Patriots’ future betting odds are at -125 to go over the projected win total of 8½ with the number at -105 to go under that total.
Star cornerback J.C. Jackson is now a member of the Los Angeles Chargers, linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower have also moved on. Offensive lineman Shaq Mason was traded to Tampa Bay and Ted Karras was signed by the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals to improve their offensive line.
The decision to use a late first-round pick on offensive lineman Cole Strange was a curious one, or if you like, a strange one.
Mac Jones Ready for Year 2
- Passing Yards: 3900.5
- Touchdowns: 23.5
- Interceptions: 12.5
Legendary New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick isn’t known for throwing out compliments, especially not to young players. So it was worthy of mentioning that Belichick said Jones has shown “dramatic improvement” from a fairly solid rookie season. There weren’t many chances for Jones to show off his ability to stretch the defense. Perhaps a better understanding of what Jones is capable of doing will result in the Patriots letting the young quarterback be more aggressive in his second season.
Jones comes in with a projected yardage total of 3900.5 according to the New England Patriots future betting odds after passing for 3801 yards as a rookie. His touchdown and interception projections are pretty close to what he put up as a rookie. The trade of Shaq Mason leaves New England without one of the team’s most reliable offensive linemen.
The Patriots opted not to trade up to target one of the top receivers in the 2022 NFL Draft. New England took speedy Baylor receiver Tyquan Thornton in the second round. According to the NFL Future Odds, he is tied for 17th in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Jones completed 71.1% of his passes and was +10 in touchdown/interception margin in the wins as a rookie. His numbers dropped to a 64% accuracy mark with one more interception than a touchdown pass so a little more consistency would go a long way.
There has been a lot made of Belichick’s decision to move away from coordinators. It will be worth watching to see how the coaching assignment might impact their development for Jones.
Will Harris Continue to be the Top Ball Carrier?
- Rushing Yards: 875.5
- Rushing Touchdowns: 8.5
Among the other surprising moves in the NFL draft was the selection of running back Pierre Strong in the fourth round. Damien Harris is just 25 and he has averaged 4.8 yards per carrying in his three seasons. There are durability issues with Harris playing in just 27 games over his first three campaigns.
Rhamondre Stevenson worked out pretty well as a fourth-round pick in 2021. He had two 100-yard games and averaged 4.6 yards per carrying. Third-down back James White is back as is J.J. Taylor so the Patriots won’t lack options at the running back position. Despite missing two games in 2021, Harris ran for 15 touchdowns so that makes the projection of 8½ touchdowns seem a little on the low side. He has a pretty modest number of 825½ rushing yards. Those numbers are an indication that another Belichick running back by the committee could be coming.
Who Steps Up in the Receiving Game?
The Patriots finally gave up on former first-round pick N’Keal Harry, who caught just 57 of the 103 targets he saw in 33 regular-season games. The biggest move in the offseason was acquiring Devante Parker from division rival Miami. Parker had 72 catches for 1202 yards in 2019. However, the selection of Jaylen Waddle in the first round in 2021 and the trade for Tyreek Hill made Parker expendable.
Is Meyers Ready to take the Next Step?
- Receptions: 65.5
- Receiving Yards: 750.5
- Receiving Touchdowns: 3.5 (-140o)
When looking at the 2021 New England Patriots stats, former undrafted free agent Jakobi Meyers led the Patriots with 866 yards on 83 catches. Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Nelson Agholor aren’t exactly expected to form a fearsome group of receivers. Tight end Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith figure to be better in 2022 than they were in 2021 when they finished with 78 catches and 10 touchdowns.
Meyers didn’t score his first touchdown until the ninth game of the season. Sure, Henry was the one getting the ball in the red zone but a No. 1 receiver averaging 10.4 yards per catch with rare visits to the end zone is not a winning formula.
What is the Next Step for Henry?
- Receptions: 50.5
- Receiving Yards: 575
- Receiving Touchdowns: 6.5 (+100o)
Hunter Henry’s first season with the Patriots was solid but hardly eye-opening. If nothing else, he was consistently pulling down 25 catches in Weeks 1-8 and 25 more from Weeks 9-16. The chemistry he built with Mac Jones should carry over to this season.
Based on the projections, Henry’s touchdown numbers are expected to regress. He had nine TD catches a season ago and the odds favor him going under 6.5 touchdowns this season.
His season high of 86 receiving yards came in the final game of the regular season so that could bode well for the upcoming season.
- What are the odds of the New England Patriots winning Super Bowl LVII?
As of the preseason, the New England Patriots are priced at +4000 to win Super Bowl LVII.
- How many games are the New England Patriots expected to win for the 2022-23 season?
Oddsmakers have set the New England Patriots’ regular-season win total at 8.5 wins for the 2022-23 season.
- Which New England Patriots player has the best chance to win the 2022-23 regular-season MVP award?
Quarterback Mac Jones tops the MVP regular-season odds board among New England Patriots players, paying out at +6000 to win the award.Follow us on Twitter