Under coach Mike Vrabel, the Tennessee Titans have overperformed. The Titans have, for the past four seasons, won more games than their expected win-loss lines predicted. Will it be the fifth season in a row? The Tennessee Titans’ future betting odds only have them winning nine games, which is three fewer than last season. Improvements around the conference, and the division, could push Tennessee back.
The Titans stunned everyone when they traded away top receiver A.J. Brown. Top lineman Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry are also gone from the offensive line. Now Tennessee will have to rely on new acquisitions in wideout Robert Woods and Jamarco Jones on the o-line. Top draft pick Treylon Burks also comes in via the Brown deal. Take a look at the PointSpreads page, keep updated with the NFL news, where we will see different players leading the Tennessee Titans stats this year.
As the Tennessee Titans’ future betting odds indicate, this team may go from being the top seed in the AFC to not making the playoffs at all. Tennessee isn’t even the favorite to win their division as their rival, the Indianapolis Colts, are expected to be more improved. A lot of their fate hinges on how well their new wide receivers perform and how Derrick Henry will look returning from injury.
Has The King Returned?
- Rushing Yards: 1350.5
- Rushing Touchdowns: 13.5
Suffice to say, Derrick Henry was not the same dominant force when he returned in the playoffs last season. “King” Henry was limited to just 3.1 yards per attempt (Y/A) against Cincinnati. Optimists will say it’s just one game and he was not fully healthy. Pessimists will point to it being a sign of his gradual decline compounded by the team losing their two main blockers. Henry is turning 29 this season, which is not an ideal age for his position.
The NFL Future odds still expect a lot out of the King. He is tied for second on the table for Offensive Player of the Year and is behind last year’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, to finish with the most rushing yards. But only one running back at age 28 or older has led the NFL in rushing yards since 2008: Adrian Peterson.
If Henry is the same dominant running back as his “old self”, then 1,350 yards should be no problem. But if he isn’t? Henry averaged 4.3 Y/A last season. To get to 1,350 yards, Henry will have to rush 314 times or over 18 times a game. This is assuming he maintains this average. If he’s not as productive as this, Henry may not even hit this line while rushing over 20 times a game.
Tennessee lost D’Onta Foreman, who was the lead rusher in Henry’s absence. Dontrell Hilliard and rookie Hassan Haskins will likely battle it out to be the main backup behind Henry. Hassan has shown promise and if he is as “beastly” as Henry commented, he could just eat into Henry’s share.
Ryan Tannehill’s Decline Could Continue
- Passing Yards: 3600.5
- Passing Touchdowns: 21.5
- Interceptions: 12.5
As far as quarterbacks go, Ryan Tannehill falls in that dubious “mid-tier”. This is the spot where he’s good enough to win team games but not quite good enough to make them a serious contender. The Titans’ brass knows this or else they would not have drafted Malik Willis. The highly touted prospect could still be a year or two away from starting, but Tannehill knows it’s now or never for him.
The former Dolphin had a career renaissance with Tennessee but has gradually declined. His touchdown-to-interception ratio, average yards per attempt, and passer rating all took a tumble the past season. He began heating up towards the end of the season with a 125.3 passer rating in his final three games. But then he threw three picks to one touchdown in the playoffs.
Given his expected stat totals, the oddsmakers are banking on Tannehill to continue his decline. The Tennessee Titans future betting odds are not getting much action, especially considering the Titans’ losses on offense. Tannehill will need to quickly gain chemistry with his new receivers. A slow start for him could force management to look to Willis whether he is ready or not.
Woods and Burks Have Big Shoes to Fill
Robert Woods and Treylon Burks will be the Titans’ go-to receivers. Woods is a solid veteran but is coming from an ACL injury. Burks is the first-round pick Tennessee used to replace Brown. While Julio Jones was a bust for Tennessee, Brown was a 2020 Pro Bowler who had two 1,000-yard seasons. The betting odds have Woods and Burks near each other in receiving stats, indicating no true number-one option.
- Receptions: 64.5 (-120o)
- Receiving Yards: 800.5
- Receiving Touchdowns: 4.5
Signs point to Woods having recovered from his knee injury. After all, the betting lines have him producing in the ballpark of 800 receiving yards, which is about 125 yards short of what he’s averaged as a Ram. But the Titans are a run-heavy team, hence why he’s also expected to catch around 64 or 65 passes. That’s between three to four receptions on a 17-game schedule.
In comparison, Brown had an average of 4.3 receptions per game. Both Woods and Brown have similar catch percentages with Woods at 66.5 percent in Los Angeles versus Brown at 62.7 percent. The challenge for Woods will be how he fares when he’s the top target of defenses. He won’t have as many talented teammates as he did in Los Angeles.
- Receptions: 62.5 (Evo)
- Receiving Yards: 775.5 (-125o)
- Receiving Touchdowns: 4.5
It’s tough to handicap how well a rookie will perform in the NFL. If last year was any indication, then we can expect a solid outing from Treylon Burks. The Razorback was the sixth receiver taken in the NFL Draft and some analysts have even compared him to the man he’s replacing: A.J. Brown. The best-case scenario for Tennessee will play out like in Minnesota when Justin Jefferson proved to be just as great as Stefon Diggs.
So far, the public has faded his reception total but bet up his receiving yards. This points to Burks making plenty of big catches but maybe not making too many. It may be akin to Brown’s rookie year when he averaged over 20 yards per reception and hit the 1,000-yard mark despite making just 52 catches. Burks also has the potential to be the team’s main receiver. If that’s the case, expect defenses to quickly focus on him.