Super Bowl Player Prop Bets: Quarterback Spotlight

Best Quarterback Prop Options

Betting the props is so much more than studying NFL player stats. Let’s go through our Super Bowl player prop bets with an emphasis on both signal callers. To be successful with your side wagers, you must first determine who you think will win and how it will play out. This will give you a loose blueprint for attacking player props. For the Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is trying to win his second ring after winning in 2020 against San Francisco. Mahomes is 10-3 in his 13 postseason games. For the Eagles, Jalen Hurts hopes to win his first ring after a one-and-done season in ‘21-’22. Mahomes is 8-5 ATS in the postseason in his career, Hurts is 2-1 ATS. Let’s start our Super Bowl player prop bet discussion starting with Patrick Mahomes props.

Patrick Mahomes Total Touchdown Passes Prop

Over 1 ½ Touchdown Passes:-225
Under 1 ½ Touchdown Passes:+185

If you must be involved with this prop, there’s no reason to lay -225 with all the other options available. The +185 side is the only way to play this, knowing that prop bets should be played with fun being the focus. Now, history will tell us that Mahomes will have over 1 ½ touchdowns.

Simply because 10 of his 13 career playoff games have produced at least two touchdowns. It’s worth noting that with Mahomes battling a high ankle sprain, he is a hit away from giving way to Chad Henne.

Selection: Small, fun money on the under because we’re not laying -225

Mahomes Total Passing Yards Prop

Over 290.5:-145
Under 290.5:+115

After this number opened at 287.5, the public pushed the number up to 290.5. Our thought is that this game will be about defense, especially if Mahomes’ high ankle sprain is still a concern. If you go back to the 2021 match-up, Kansas City put up 42 points but only 278 yards passing.

That was played a long time ago but it gives an example of how passing yards can still be low in a high-scoring game.

Selection: We would recommend waiting for this number to go up some. That -145 indicates that it’s about ready to burst upward. Take under 290.5 as a base, but don’t bet if the number unexpectedly shrinks.

Mahomes Total Interception Prop

Over: 0.5 -125
Under:0.5 -105

This isn’t a play that grabs our attention and apparently, the public feels the same with the number not budging since opening. This prop is much more of a crap shoot while not giving a plus-money option. Going back to his high ankle sprain, it’s unlikely that he’ll be 100% come game time.

He didn’t throw a pick against the Bengals and picked up just 8 yards on the ground after a five-yard run as time expired. This number seems to be trying to lure you into an under wager, after an efficient effort against the Bengals but folks in Denver can tell you that the interception bug can rear its head at any time as it did when Mahomes threw three picks on three straight drives in a 27-14 win late in the season.

Selection: We would like to get in on the under but the gut is saying to stay away because there are too many variables that could come into play that could cause you to rip your ticket up.

Mahomes Longest Completion Prop

Over:37.5 -120
Under:37.5 -110

This is one prop we like quite a bit. In Mahomes’ 19 games this season, he has found completion over 37.5 yards in 12 of them. This wager will counter an under-wager on the total yards thrown with it being unlikely that an under-winner on this prop will result in an over-winner on the passing yard prop. It acts as a middle wager in a sense.

We understand he’ll be facing one of the top defenses in the NFL, but this takes just one thrown from a quarterback who has proven he can find downfield one-on-one matchups against anyone.

Selection: Over 37.5 yards (-120). With 11 300-yard games under his belt this season, we know OC Eric Bieniemy will take enough shots downfield to cash this wager.

Mahomes Rushing + Passing Yards Prop

Over:314.5 -115
Under:314.5 -115

Back to the ankle. This prop comes down to how healthy bettors think Mahomes will be. His eight yards on the ground last week won’t be good enough to push this over the total, if healthy we could use this as a middle wager.

All Mahomes has to do is be in that 25 yards rushing range and we should cash this and the under-passing yards wager. This play comes down to having confidence in the mobility of the 5-time pro bowler.

Selection: Over 314.5, there is a 25-yard window that this selection can’t fall into. Otherwise, it’s a free roll with a chance to cash both ends.

Jalen Hurts Total Touchdown Passes Prop

Over 1 ½ Touchdown Passes:-120
Under 1 ½ Touchdown Passes:-110

We think this game will be the final learning experience for Hurts before he becomes a great quarterback. This is a big stage for the former Sooner and Crimson Tide star, and it’s fair to say KC will be the best team he has faced in his postseason career that spans just three games.

Two of his three playoff games have resulted in less than two touchdown passes. In the regular season, Hurts threw for more than two touchdown passes in eight of his 15 games played, with two of four games against playoff teams.

This prop hasn’t taken heavy action yet with the number staying put, but we suspect that Andy Reid’s game plan will be to make someone other than Hurts beat them.

Selection: Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes -110

Hurts Total Passing Yards Prop

Over 243.5:-110
Under 243.5: -120

This number has ticked up some after opening at 242.5. It seems to be a trend, but if we think defense is the flavor of the day, then you must think this is going under the total. With Hurts throwing a combined 49 times against the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers, the Eagles would prefer a game where Hurts has under 20 completions which would not get you anywhere near the 243.5 mark.

Hurts is a dynamic player but as far as being a guy that can get you a win throwing over 40 times a game, we’re not sure he’s there yet.

Selection: Like Mahomes, watch this number close. It is right about where it should be so don’t anticipate a three-yard jump. Jump on this number now because there’s a good chance it could come down a little before kick-off. There is a middle chance with another prop that we’ll talk about later.

Hurts Total Interception Prop

Over 0.5:-120
Under 0.5:-110

There will be parts of the Super Bowl where Hurts will be asked to make a play downfield. Hurts, 24, will likely feel the pressure of the game in increments and that’s where we cash this over ticket.

We don’t anticipate the interception hurting the Eagles because we anticipate Hurts trying to force one in early to give his team a lead or match scores. With just six picks all season, it was surprising to see this prop give an emphasis to the over.

Selection: Over (-120) If Kansas City can stop the Eagle’s ground game early, forcing Philly to think one-dimensional, the likeliness of this ticket cashing goes through the roof. Perhaps something to think about if you’re in-game wagering.

Hurts Longest Completion Prop

Over:37.5 -120
Under:37.5 -110

This number opened at -115 on both sides, so there has been small early action on the over which we think is the right side. Some properties in the desert have the moneyline on the over and even higher, giving us an indication that over-bettors should jump on this now. We don’t think the number will change much but you always want to give yourself the best of the moneyline too.

Selection: Over 37.5. With the injury to L’Jarius Sneed it’s likely we’ll see A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith gets some looks downfield.

Hurts Rushing + Passing Yards Prop

Over:299.5 -105
Under:299.5 -125

This number has shot up after opening at 294.5 before taking a little under money. We would attack this the way we went after the Mahomes number but there’s a strong enough case to be made that both this and the total yards prop will go under the total.

This comes down to Hurt’s ability to run the ball. The Pro-bowler averaged over 50 yards rushing this season, but it’s not likely we’re going to see that Super Bowl Sunday. If he doesn’t then you’re asking Hurts to throw in the 270 range, which we’ve already bet the under 243. Both related wagers seem like two under-winners.

Prediction: This prop falls way short of the mark with Hurts in the 270-280 range.

The Best of the Rest Quarterback Prop Predictions

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards 250+ Even Money

Ja Morant’s (Grizzlies) total Points at Boston on 2/12 will be higher than Mahomes total completions (-110)

Jaylen Brown (Celtics) made 3-pt FGs vs. Memphis will be more than Mahomes passing TDs (-145)

Jalen Hurts (-165) total touchdowns will be more than NHL games going into OT on 2/12

There will not be a roughing the passer penalty (-165)

That does it for our Super Bowl player props bets featuring the quarterbacks. We wish you nothing but the best this Super Bowl Sunday.
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