T.J. Watt Could Be Challenged In NFL Sack Race
After Leading the NFL in Sacks Last Season, T.J. Watt Has The Best Odds to Lead the NFL in Sacks Again
Latu Among the Rookies Who Can Pile Up Sacks in 2024
Many of the usual suspects were in contention for the sack lead during the 2023 NFL with T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers leading the way with 19.5 sacks.
It is hardly surprising that Watt has the shortest odds of being the 2024 NFL sack leader.
Watt was one of eight players with at least 14 sacks a season ago. Will Watt, Josh Allen, Trey Hendrickson, Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter, Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons, and Myles Garrett surpass their sack totals from the 2023 season?
When looking at the NFL futures odds, led by Parsons at +600, the top five players in the odds to be the NFL Defensive Player of the Year are contenders to lead the NFL in sacks.
Keep on reading for more on the odds for the top pass rushers heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Hard to Pick Against Watt
- Watt went from recording 22.5 sacks in 15 games during a brilliant 2021 season to having a career-low 5.5 sacks in 10 games the following season.
It is safe to say that the perennial Pro Bowl pass rusher bounced back during the 2023 season as the NFL stat leaders had Watt recording more sacks than any other player.
He had six sacks in the first three games of the season including three in the season opener against a San Francisco 49ers team that would reach the Super Bowl.
He has +275 odds to be the 2024 NFL sack leader.
- Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys and Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns are next at +350 and +400 as both offer tempting odds.
Ironically, the Browns and the Cowboys open the regular season against each other with the visiting Cowboys a slight favorite.
Maxx Crosby, who had career-high totals of 90 tackles and 14.5 sacks, is one of the others to keep an eye on with +550 odds set by the NFL picks to lead the league in sacks.
Trey Hendrickson (+900) might be a risky pick to lead the league in sacks even though he had 17.5 a season ago as the Bengals are loaded with players who can get to the quarterback.
Haason Reddick, playing for his fourth franchise in the last five seasons, will look to add some punch to the pass rush for the New York Jets.
- He has had double-digit sacks in each of the last four season so it could be worth a ‘what-the-heck’ bet for Reddick to lead the NFL in sacks with +1200 odds.
TREY HENDRICKSON! #Bengals #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/lX7KeVymCW
— Jennifer Schultz (@Jennife45487237) June 25, 2024
A Look At the Numbers
One interesting aspect of the 2024 NFL season is the number of elite pass rushers on the move during the offseason.
Jadaveon Clowney, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, had a five-year run with the Houston Texans. However, the Carolina Panthers will be his fifth franchise in the last six seasons.
- Clowney has yet to post at least 10 sacks in the regular season in his first 10 NFL seasons. He offers solid value at +115 odds to go over 6.25 sacks in his first season with the Panthers.
Danielle Hunter had 87.5 sacks in eight seasons with the Minnesota Vikings with 27 coming in the last two seasons.
Hunter is now with the Houston Texans after signing a two-year contract. Hunter has -110 odds to either go over or under 10.75 sacks.
Brian Burns heads from the Carolina Panthers to the New York Giants and perhaps the change of scenery is just what he needs as his sacks dropped from 12.5 in 2022 to just eight a season ago.
- Another eight-sack season would pay out at +110 while there are -120 odds to have at least nine sacks.
Jadaveon Clowney pic.twitter.com/qK0DCm0j5P
— W1ll The Wave (@W1llTheWave) June 25, 2024
Strength in the Middle
When it comes to the players likely to challenge for the 2024 NFL sack leader, most of the attention is focused on the edge rushers. However, there are some interior defensive linemen with tempting season props.
- DeForest Buckner of the Indianapolis Colts had eight sacks in each of the last two seasons and he is priced at -110 to go over or under 7.75 sacks.
Chris Jones of the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs has the same odds to either fall under or surpass 10.75 sacks.
- Justin Madubuike had 8.5 sacks in his first three NFL seasons before breaking through with 13 sacks a season ago. The +120 odds for Madubuike to top 9.25 sacks for the Baltimore Ravens.
Patrick Mahomes told Chris Jones he wants that 3-peat! pic.twitter.com/tXOTf2dukK
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) May 4, 2024
What About the Rookies?
Five players selected in the 2023 NFL Draft had at least six sacks as rookies with the three leaders among rookies in sacks being taken in the third round.
Los Angeles Rams teammates Kobie Turner and Byron Young combined for 17 sacks while Tampa Bay’s YaYa Diaby had 7.5 sacks.
Will Anderson of the Houston Texans had seven sacks while Jalen Carter of the Philadelphia Eagles finished with six sacks.
What will this year’s rookie class accomplish?
The Indianapolis Colts made UCLA star Laiatu Latu the first defensive player selected in April’s NFL Draft with Seattle taking Byron Murphy out of Texas and Alabama’s Dallas Turner going next to the Minnesota Vikings.
- Latu has -105 odds to top 7.25 sacks and -115 odds to go under that number.
If Turner has eight sacks, that will pay out at +115 while Murphy has the same odds to go over 4.75 sacks.
- Turner has the shortest odds of +375 to be the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year followed by Latu at +550.
For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
