NHL Matchups Report for Tuesday: Public Reams Vegas, Again!
Fav's Won Six of Nine Yesterday With Some Huge Upsets
At first glance, our NHL matchups report shows that the money, in addition to the favorites was 6-3 last night. Players were treated to 325 units of profit behind 64% of the moneyline wagers on the Montreal Canadiens +290 who surprised the New Jersey Devils, 5-2. The Joes squeezed out a puck line profit of 85 units with the public getting five of the nine games correct, while the total was also kind with another 5-4 mark for bettors, with a profit of 60 units. All records are based on which side had the higher percentage of money wagered. Let’s go deeper into last night’s NHL scores and odds and then get an update on where the player stands to date.
Another Night of Massive Upsets
Why can’t things just be the way they should be? That would make it so much easier for bettors who already have found overall success record-wise, but the moneyline has held profits down which we’ll discuss later. Last night, the Vegas Golden Knights went into Chicago as a -295 favorite and were beaten in a shootout, 3-2.
Petr Mrazek had 34 saves and Tyler Johnson scored their only shootout goal to give the Blackhawks their third straight win and fifth in their last 10 games with an overtime loss (5-4-1). With Golden Knights players once again scattered all over the NHL injuries report, Laurent Brossoit made his first start in net for Vegas. The former Edmonton Oiler and Winnipeg Jet made 37 saves in the loss.
In New Jersey, what seemed like another easy win for the Devils turned into a nightmare for the home team after the Montreal Canadiens (+290) stuck a bad loss on the Jersey resume’, 5-2. This worked out well for the betting public with 64% of the money coming on the Habs, while 78% of the overall ticket count had New Jersey. The money wagered, in this case, outweighed the tickets wagered, even though this number climbed to almost -380 in some spots.
It was clear that the books were more than happy to have Montreal money roll in, a bet that they eventually lost. Let’s continue our NHL matchups report from last night by looking at how the home teams fared.
Home Favorites Continue to Dominate
The theme this season has easily been the success that home favorites have won. That holds true when we talk about records but not necessarily when it comes to the overall money won. The perfect scenario for sportsbooks is for the public to win the higher percentage of tickets, but they win the battle of money.
This season, home favorites are 351-228 (60.63%), but the books have won 3517 units despite that success. Books have generated 2361 units of profit on favorites over -150 and 1747 units of profit on favorites -200 or more despite the public owning a 153-74 record (67.40%).
Betting big favorites is like walking through landmines where only one has to go off to create disaster, even if the previous two or three games cashed out. The games are easier to pick but one false move will be a disaster for your bankroll.
Games featuring a moneyline of -120 or less are still profitable for books (+969) units but they would rather the big money rest on big favorites. Our NHL matchups report continues with a glance at totals.
Unders Continue Slight Edge
Flip the coin 100 times and you’ll likely get somewhere close to a 50/50 split. That has been the case with betting totals for years with 2022-23 being no exception. To date, 50.9% of games have gone under the total. We saw that last night with five of the nine falling right into that narrative.
The public continues to struggle with the late games when both Vegas/Chicago and the Philadelphia Flyers and the Edmonton Oilers slid under. The overall ticket count was on the over but money nailed the Oilers and Flyers under 6.5 (+118).
That number opened as a consensus 7 but was reduced after some large wagers right before puck drop. The higher ticket count percentage has won the majority of wagers this season, but just by two games (441-439), exactly how the books like it.
That does it for our NHL match-up report, we wish you nothing but the best with your wagers tonight.
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