NHL Mid-Season Atlantic Division Odds Report & Analysis

The NHL Atlantic Division odds show that the Boston Bruins are clearly in the driver’s seat with a 13-point lead over the Toronto Maple Leafs heading into the break. Boston is +450 to win their seventh Stanley Cup. Lurking 18 points behind is the Tampa Bay Lightning who are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

They may not catch the B’s for the division lead but the defending Eastern Conference champions know it’s about winning in the postseason. At the end of the year, we suspect most NHL rankings will show the Lighting as a team you want to avoid.

Let’s start our NHL Atlantic Division odds preview and predictions by uncovering what makes the mighty Bruins successful.

It will be interesting to see where the Boston Bruins go at the deadline. They are a team that is trying to get away from rentals, which they have managed to do and it’s paid off handsomely with Taylor Hall and Hampus Lindholm. How does the best team in hockey get better, they add defensive depth and that’s where we believe GM Don Sweeney will go.

Word on the street is that Bo Horvat was asked about, but nothing serious came to be and Horvat signed with the New York Islanders. If we are allowed to nitpick, Boston has a terrific top six, but their bottom six still needs more production.

The B’s has been a friend to bettors this NHL season with 1369 units won against the puckline, which makes sense considering they own the league’s best goal differential.

Prediction: We hate to say this because it feels too easy, but to pick anyone else but Boston to win the Stanley Cup would be like throwing money into a wishing well. Boston is an incredible 25-16 this season when laying the goal and a half, that’s almost 300 units better than Ottawa who is usually on the receiving end of +1.5.

When looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ first half for bettors, their record against the puck line sticks out. The Leafs have either lost in the first round of the postseason or failed to make the playoffs every season since 2012-13 and 16 of the last 17 overall.

It’s hard to imagine that this year will be different with a likely collision course with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Toronto has been a difficult wager this season because they play a lot of close games, failing to cover the -1.5 in 29 of their 44 contest. Grit is a word that comes up around playoff time, but Wednesday’s loss to the Boston Bruins may get that talk started early.

With a win, Toronto could have reduced the B’s lead to nine points while adding to a three-game losing streak. Instead, Boston went into ScotiaBank and dominated the final 40 minutes in a 5-2 win. Circle that nugget moving forward.

Prediction: Sorry Toronto fans, the Lightning will take that second spot in the division, giving Tampa the first-round home advantage while sending Toronto to another early exit. For bettors, it’s best to pass on Toronto because they’ll win a lot of games but are still not good enough defensively to rely on them to profit through inflated lines.

You can bet that the Tampa Bay Lightning will be an active participant at the deadline, despite the fact they will likely try to sell other clubs on the notion that their hands are tied. We don’t think they’ll catch Boston, but it’s more than likely they’ll surpass Toronto for the second spot in the Atlantic.

There is a quiet confidence in the defending Eastern Conference champions that should make the Bruins sweat in the postseason. Head Coach Jon Cooper said the Lightning are “Dynasty chasers”, a statement that should tell bettors that the Lightning is a team to be on most nights.

As a favorite, Tampa is 31-9 (+784 units), second only to the Boston Bruins (+1026 units). Beware when Cooper’s team is an underdog with just one win in eight games. A small nugget that will help move forward.

Prediction: It looks like a second-round loss to the Boston Bruins in seven games in what should be a classic series. In order to make money with this team, you have to have a limit that you won’t bet because it’s about building or maintaining a bankroll. You need to pick your spots but it’s obvious Tampa is strong against teams they should beat with an 18-3 record as a -175 favorite or more.

No one can deny that the culture in Buffalo has changed. It seemed when they made a deal with the Vegas Golden Knights to bring Alex Tuch back to his home state was the day everything changed. With 517 units won, Buffalo has been a top-five profitable team for most of the season.

They are at their best for bettors when on the road where they built a bankroll early when no one thought they would be competitive. Buffalo is 15-9 away from Western New York, racking up 1137 units of profit, the third-best mark in the NHL.

After trading away Jack Eichel to the Vegas Golden Knights, new superstars began to emerge starting with Tage Thompson (68 points) who plays on the Buffalo top line with Tuch (55 points).

We don’t know if they have the backstop to go deep into the postseason, but the jump in attendance at the KeyBank Center shows this club is on its way up.

Prediction: The Sabres will slide into the postseason for the first time since the 2010-11 season but waiting for them is the Boston Bruins, resulting in a six-game loss. With a 10-5 record against teams .500 or better (+1047 units), don’t hesitate to bet the Sabres against the better teams in the league.

Right now this team isn’t good enough to make the playoffs but a few moves in the next few weeks could change that. We predict that Washington Capitals will grab the last wild card spot because the salary cap could hinder the Florida Panthers from making a playoff push.

They’re a year away from making major moves in free agency which is likely something they will hold on to with the 2022-23 season as their sacrifice. There is no team in the NHL that is a more significant disappointment after winning the President’s Trophy last season, forcing the team to make moves that haven’t worked out including bringing in former Winnipeg Jets coach Paul Maurice to replace Andrew Brunette.

Chemistry has been a major problem to date.

Prediction: Panthers fail to make the postseason continuing to be a go-against team for bettors on the road. So far the Panthers have taken 1013 units of profit from players away from Sunrise.

The Ottawa Senators finished with just 73 points last season, but you could tell they were on their way to respectability. You can’t yet factor them into your daily betting card as a reliable source of income, but they have played competitive hockey which is reflected in their surprising +727 units when betting the Sens on the puck line.

Even more, when Ottawa is a puck line favorite, they’ve been sensational with a 15-12 record for 1128 units of profit. Only the Boston Bruins (+1392) have been a stronger puckline wager as a favorite than the Ottawa Senators.

If Drake Batherson finishes strong, the Sens will have three lines with a 20-goal scorer and expect that top line with Tim Stutzle to be on fire after Stutzle was left off the all-star team.

Prediction: The Senators have won four in a row and are just six points out of a playoff spot. Ottawa is one of the few teams who have cap space to work with this offseason, which means they won’t shy away from making moves at the deadline. We feel like they’ll miss the playoffs, but will be a force in the Atlantic next season. Bettors should continue siding with the Sens, especially as a favorite and specifically as a home favorite where they are just 10-8 but have put away 748 units.

We know the Detroit Red Wings are still in the postseason discussion, but it’s a whisper rather than talking with the bass the Boston Bruin fans are speaking with. Detroit hasn’t shown a reliability play consistently enough to climb over teams to get to the playoffs.

The Wings have just one four-game win streak and two three-game runs. They must be better with five teams on their path to the wild card. Detroit is trying to stay competitive by playing a sound defensive game but they still have very little scoring depth.

Prediction: Detroit is still a couple of years away from being a playoff participant, but that doesn’t mean we can’t continue to take advantage of their lack of scoring by crushing the under the rest of the season. Over-bettors have been consistently burned by the number, losing 27 of their first 48 games (-830 units).

The respect the oddsmakers are giving the Montreal Canadiens is basically non-existent. You can tell by the fact that the habs are 11 games under .500 but are still producing a small profit. This season, the Canadiens have been a +200 dog 18 times (8-10) but are the best in the league by far in that situation. The next best team when getting +200 or more is the Buffalo Sabres with just 231 units won.

The Habs are 4-3 (+627 units) when getting +200 or more against teams playing .600 hockey or better. You would think that the team that houses the most Stanley Cup wins, yes, we know about the monopoly on French-born players back in the day wouldn’t have a culture problem but it’s fair to say that they do!

Next season they hope that injuries won’t be as much of an issue but as the Vegas Golden Knights will tell you, there’s no guarantee as they start the long climb up to respectability.

Prediction: Montreal is a long way off from making anyone sweat in the Atlantic, but we suggest going against them when playing inside the division where they’re just 4-11 (-302 units) and that includes a 2-0 mark against Toronto.

That does it for our look at the NHL’s Atlantic Division odds. We think the Bruins are the clear favorite to win the Cup. All the best in the second half.

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