Panthers vs Oilers Closing Odds for Game 3

Despite Florida’s 2-0 advantage, Edmonton favored, dominating betting handle for Game 3

With a win in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, the Florida Panthers can move within one win of the Cup. However, according to the Panthers vs. Oilers closing odds, bettors don’t believe a sweep is coming.

Bettors are backing the Oilers big-time in Game 3. Edmonton is carrying 73% of the moneyline betting handle, which is why the Oilers moneyline odds have shortened slightly from about -135 to about -140 as the opening faceoff nears — to even -145 at Caesars Sportsbook.

The -145 Panthers vs. Oilers closing odds carry about a 59% implied probability, which is far less than the betting handle. Still, since 2006, 13 teams have fallen behind 2-0 in the Stanley Cup Final, and 10 have won Game 3, including the Oilers’ 2-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 3 at Rexall Place in 2006.

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The Panthers have never won a road Stanley Cup Final game, dropping each of the previous five away from South Florida, including last year’s Cup clincher in Las Vegas. Florida built a 2-0 lead by holding serve with a pair three-goal wins on home ice in Games 1 and 2 but may not have captain Aleksander Barkov for Game 3 after he sustained an upper-body injury in the third period of Game 2.

Here’s a look at the Panthers vs Oilers closing odds and how the action has shifted ahead of Game 3 on Thursday.

Oilers logo Oilers vs Panthers Panthers logo

📊Records: Florida Panthers (2-0) at Edmonton Oilers (0-2)
📍Location: Rogers Place
⏰Day/Time: 📺Streaming: ABC, ESPN+

Action Favors the Oilers

Only five of 54 NHL Stanley Cup winners have rallied from down 2-0 to win the championship. But there have only been 20 four-game sweeps in 84 series since the Cup Final went to a best-of-7 format in 1939 and none since 1998.

The series shifts to Edmonton for Game 3, where the Oilers are 6-3 and have won four of their past five. Despite the fact Edmonton is known as “the City of Champions” in Canada due to the Oilers’ dominance in the 1980s, this will be the first Cup Final game at Rogers Place since it opened in 2016.

So although Florida is an overwhelming favorite to win the Stanley Cup, and Edmonton was an underdog in the first two games, the Oilers are favored to get back into the series by winning Game 3.

The action may also favor the Oilers due to Barkov’s uncertain status for Game 3. The Panthers No. 1 center and 2024 Selke Trophy winner missed the final 9:28 of Game 2 after taking a high hit from Edmonton center Leon Draisaitl — he was assessed a minor penalty for roughing.

Barkov practiced Wednesday, and The Athletic reported he dodged a broken jaw from Draisaitl’s hit. Still, he is officially listed as questionable.

If Barkov is ruled out for Game 3, the Oilers’ moneyline odds will plummet. Barkov has shut down Draisaitl, and tandem superstar Connor McDavid, through two games and shares the team lead in playoff points (19).

Even if Barkov plays there’s a strong possibility of a breakout game for McDavid and Draisaitl since the Oilers will have the benefit of last change. Panthers coach Paul Maurice has put Barkov on the ice every time he could against McDavid’s line, but Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch is likely to seek out favorable matchups for his superstars.

Bettors Favor the Over

The Under has become a staple of Florida Panthers games, and it hit in each of the first two Cup Final contests. But there’s reason to believe in a high-scoring affair in Game 3, and bettors are buying in, too.

For Game 3, the Under has the shorter odds, sitting at about -115, despite the fact the Over is carrying 62% of the betting handle. Trends favor a low-scoring game since the Under has hit in 10 of Florida’s past 11 games.

However, the Over is 3-0 in Florida’s Game 3s this postseason and is also undefeated in Edmonton’s Game 3s in the playoffs. Edmonton is averaging four goals per game at Rogers Place, and its power play is firing at 38.5% on home ice in nine games.

The Panthers have a plus-8 goal differential in road games and are averaging 3.25 goals per game away from Sunrise, Florida.

That makes the Over the best NHL bets today, especially at these odds and considering the Oilers have only one goal in the first two games yet have the top-3 playoff point producers in McDavid, Draisaitl and defenseman Evan Bouchard and the top postseason goal scorer, Zach Hyman.

Puck Line Odds Shorten

Bettors who backed Florida to cover the puck line won big in Games 1 and 2. Still, the games generally tighten this time of the year, which is why the puck-line odds opened at about +205 for Game 3.

Though the puck-line betting handle is not available, NHL expert picks and line movement suggest Edmonton winning by more than one goal is the pick. Oilers -1.5 has dwindled to below +200 — and even +184 at FanDuel Sportsbook — ahead of Game 3.

Three of Edmonton’s six playoff wins at Rogers Place have come by more than one goal. Plus, 40% of Florida’s losses have been multi-goal defeats, though it has just one road loss by more than one goal.

Considering the likelihood of the Over hitting, a puck-line wager makes a lot of sense. The Panthers are riding a five-game winning streak in the playoffs, which suggests they are due for a loss.

If you’re looking for a more lucrative way to wager on the Oilers to win, Edmonton -1.5 is still +200 at BetMGM

Panthers vs Oilers Prediction

The Oilers should be desperate and might pour some goals on. Look for a high-scoring, multi-goal win for the home team.

Oilers 5, Panthers 2

For NHL scores, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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