Panthers vs Oilers Game 4 Odds: Florida Eyes the Cup

Panthers Can Win the Cup as Oilers Hope to Send Series Back to Florida

The Florida Panthers can clinch their first Stanley Cup and the first Final sweep in 26 years if they beat the Edmonton Oilers this Saturday, Game 4.

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The Panthers claimed their first road Cup Final win and pushed the Oilers to the brink with a 4-3 victory in Game 3. Despite the 3-0 Florida series lead, Edmonton is a slight favorite for Game 4, with moneyline NHL odds of about -120 to send the series back to Florida for Game 5.

The Stanley Cup will be in Rogers Place on Saturday night, so let’s take a look at the Panthers vs Oilers Game 4 odds.

Panthers logo Panthers vs Oilers Oilers logo

Records: Florida Panthers (67-27-8), Edmonton Oilers (61-35-7)
Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
Streaming: ABC, ESPN+

Game 3 Recap

Aleksander Barkov again dominated with two points, including the game-winning goal, and Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and Vladimir Tarasenko each scored. Florida built a three-goal second-period lead and hung on for its sixth straight win.

  • Sergei Bobrovsky was once again excellent, stopping 32 of 35 shots against. His Cup Final save percentage (SV%) is .953.

Warren Foegele, Philip Broberg, and Ryan McLeod each scored for the Oilers, and goalie Stuart Skinner made 19 saves in defeat.

Connor McDavid had two assists, boosting his NHL-leading playoff point total to 34, but Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman were once again held off the scoresheet.

Oilers Favored (Slightly)

Edmonton has just four goals in the series and has only led for 19:09 in the NHL Stanley Cup Final, but it is still a narrow favorite to extend the series to a fifth game in Sunrise.

The Oilers have about a 54% implied probability of winning their first Cup Final game since 2006. The Game 4 betting handle far exceeds Edmonton’s perceived advantage, with 64% of bettors wagering on the Oilers to extend the series.

The Oilers are 6-4 on home ice in the playoffs. They are averaging 3.90 goals per game and have scored at least three goals in all but one of their postseason hockey games at Rogers Place.

Still, the Panthers have been machine-like in the Cup Final, outshooting the Oilers 86-70 and outscoring them 11-4. Barkov has outplayed McDavid and Bobrovsky has been better than Skinner, who made a crucial gaffe on Tarasenko’s go-ahead goal that gave Florida the lead for good in the second period.

Still, there hasn’t been a Cup Final sweep since Detroit wiped out Washington in four straight in 1998. Although neither McDavid nor Bouchard have a goal, and Draisaitl and Hyman have zero points, the Oilers’ offense is far too good to be held in check much longer.

History Favors Florida

  • Though 20 of the previous 84 best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final series have ended in a sweep, the Cup Final is the only championship round where a team has turned around a 3-0 series deficit to win.

But that has only happened once in the Cup Final since the series became best-of-seven in 1939 — when the 1942 Maple Leafs stunned the Red Wings in four straight after Detroit had built a 3-0 advantage.

Hockey teams leading 3-0 are 27-1 in the Cup Final (96.4%), and only four of 210 teams (1.9%) have rallied to win all best-of-7 series after trailing by three games.

  • Thus, the Panthers’ Cup odds are extremely short. Florida is a -2200 at bet365, -2400 at Caesars Sportsbook, -2500 favorite at DraftKings, -2800 at FanDuel, and -3000 at BetMGM.

But if you’re looking for series props with longer odds, you can consider props like the order of wins or series spread of Florida -2.5 games.

Conn Smythe Watch

Barkov may be the leading point producer on the Panthers, and he’s their clear leader. But Bobrovsky is a heavy favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, given to the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

  • Bobrovsky’s odds are -500 at multiple betting sites, but you can wager on him to win the Conn Smythe at -400 at bet365 and -420 at FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook. The payouts are not great on any of those odds since a $100 wager at -400 will only fetch $25 in profit.

Still, Bobrovsky has once again been Florida’s rock in the postseason. Sure, the Panthers play a patient and deliberate style that keeps opposition chances to the outside, but when breakdowns occur, the Vezina Trophy finalist and the two-time winner have been sparkling, sporting a .916 SV%, 2.07 goals-against average (GSAA) and 5.23 GSAA for the playoffs.

Barkov has the second-shortest odds, going off at about +400 for the playoff MVP. Barkov leads the Panthers with 21 points and has seven goals, including four game-winning goals, but would likely need a Bobrovsky implosion in at least one game to have a chance at the playoff MVP award.

  • McDavid is the only other candidate with odds shorter than +10000, and his odds sit at about +1600 going into Game 4. McDavid could steal the award if he and the Oilers can force at least a Game 6, but he’d really need to start putting him goals and points.

Over Again?

The Over finally hit in Game 3, a consequence of Florida’s three-goal second period and a pair of fluky Edmonton goals in the third period.

  • The betting handle for the Over has been about 70%, even though the Panthers vs Oilers Game 4 odds on Over 5.5 goals in Game 4 stand at Even.

But which side of the Over/Under for NHL scores today depends on how you feel the game will play out.If Edmonton wins, it will likely be able to score a handful of goals against Bobrovsky.

Skinner and the suspect Oilers’ defense aren’t likely to hold Florida down for 60 minutes, which means an Oilers win will probably result in six-plus goals being scored.

If the Panthers win they will likely continue to stymie McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Hyman, and the rest of the Edmonton offense. The Under has hit in 10 of their past 12 games.

If you’re leery about whether the total of 5.5, you can always choose an alternate total for your NHL picks and parlays for Game 4.


The Oilers have lost to the eventual Cup winner in two straight NHL seasons, a streak that seems likely to become three.

Still, Edmonton should be able to force a Game 5 in Florida. It may not be worth it to take the long odds of the Oilers to cover the puck line, since the Panthers vs Oilers Game 4 odds for the puck line are about +210, but Edmonton at -120 to win is worth the wager and the Over seems like a great bet at +100.

  • Oilers 4, Panthers 2

For NHL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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