Perfect Group Stage for USA

Japan Improving in Every Match

There were questions surrounding USA’s gold medal credentials heading into the Olympics but they’ve been superb thus far with three wins in three games. Now, USA faces a fellow Women’s World Cup winner, Japan, in Saturday’s Quarter-Final.

Japan kicked things off with a loss but won their final two group games and have been improving along the way. While the USWNT are favorites for this USA vs Japan women’s soccer match, Japan isn’t to be underestimated, especially on the counterattack. Heading into the match, we’ll cover the team news and odds.

USA vs Japan H2H:

This will be the fifth USA vs Japan women’s soccer match in the Olympics. USA are 4-0 in the previous Olympic meetings and defeated Japan 2-1 in the London 2012 Gold Medal game. In all competitions, USA are 31-8-1 against Japan. In the 2020s, the USWNT is 3-0 versus Japan and USA took down Japan 2-1 in April’s SheBelieves Cup Semifinals.

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USA Missing Midfielder Coffey

Heading into the Olympic Quarter-Finals, USA are one of the most popular Olympic soccer picks. After their 3-0 group stage, they sit at +155 Olympic gold medal odds. USA barely broke a sweat in their opener when they defeated Zambia 3-0. The USWNT’s big statement win was a 4-1 thrashing of Germany last Sunday.

Then, USA sent Australia packing with a 2-1 victory on Wednesday. The attacking trio of Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, and Sophia Smith have scored seven of the USA’s nine goals so far. Coach Emma Hayes’ tenure has gotten off to an ideal start, as she’s 6-1-0.

However, the USA will be missing key midfielder Sam Coffey due to a yellow card suspension. Coffey’s positioning and defensive ability typically allow Lindsey Horan and Rose Lavelle to venture further forward. Although, her potential replacement, Korbin Albert, scored an outrageous goal against Australia on Wednesday and has impressed in limited minutes.

There were questions about USA’s finishing ability heading into the Olympics, but nine goals in three games is an excellent haul. It was a bit concerning to see the way the USA let Australia back into the game on Wednesday after taking a two-goal lead, but they have the ability to win it all.

Japan Tough to Beat

Japan had more of the ball on Wednesday against Nigeria than in their first two games, and they certainly made it count. At halftime Japan led 3-1, and their third goal, scored by Hikaru Kitagawa, was their second direct free kick goal of the tournament. The match ended 3-1, and on a technical level, Japan was as good as any team in this tournament.

They don’t need much of the ball to win matches, as they wait for an opportune time to attack and can be incredibly clinical. After losing 2-1 to Women’s World Cup champions Spain in the group opener, Japan scored two goals to complete a 2-1 comeback victory over Brazil.

With the Nigeria victory, Japan finished in second place in Group C to set up their meeting with the USA. One concern is that midfielder Aoba Fujino, who scored a free kick against Spain, has missed Japan’s last two matches with an injury.

Another concern is defending set pieces, but the Nadeshiko have lost just two of their 11 matches in 2024. Betting on both teams to score in Japan’s Olympic matches has been one of the best soccer picks today, as it’s happened in all three of their games so far.

USA vs Japan Analysis & Odds

• Despite Coffey’s absence, it’s not a surprise to see the USA as -125 favorites. Their attacking trio will give Japan headaches and USA figures to dominate possession on Saturday. If Japan are disciplined and organized, they have a shot to pull off the upset and they’re +300 moneyline underdogs.

Still, this fixture has been all about the USA in recent times as they’ve won six of the last seven meetings. A draw (+280) would send this match into extra time, where a relatively inexperienced Japanese team would be second-favorites.

The opening USA vs Japan women’s soccer odds list Japan at +0.5 at -105 odds. Each of the last times Japan have lost, it’s only been by a one-goal margin and they’ll fully expect to keep this one close. Both teams are expected to score, as that and over 2.5 goals are both at -175 odds.

Whoever wins this can’t-miss match will face either Canada or Germany in the Semifinals.

For Olympic betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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