Team USA Likely Wins 5×5 But 3×3 Is Wide Open

2024 Olympics Men's Basketball Odds, Predictions and More

2024 Olympics Men’s Basketball is almost upon us, and basketball fans have two different tournaments they can enjoy on the Olympic Games schedule. The main event is certainly the regular five-on-five tournament that has been a part of the Summer Olympics since 1936. In addition to that, there is now a three-on-three tournament that took place at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics for the first time.

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  • While Team USA, boasting the deepest roster with stars like Stephen Curry and LeBron James remains the favorite, their recent struggles against South Sudan suggest a tighter competition than expected.  Their odds of -400 hint that there is room for an upset.

Several teams are poised to challenge the American dominance. Canada, led by All-NBA talent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, boasts the second-most NBA players in the tournament and presents a serious threat. France, the host nation, gains a home-court advantage with the addition of young superstar Victor Wembanyama, who strengthens their already formidable squad. Germany, the reigning FIBA World Cup champions, returns with a strong core of veterans and NBA talent, determined to defend their title. Greece and Serbia also have a chance, the presence of elite players like Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo makes them dangerous in every game.

The three on three tournament is much less set in stone, with multiple teams having the possibility of winning gold.

What Are the Olympic Basketball Odds?

There are a few ways to bet on the 2024 Olympics men’s basketball this upcoming games. One way is betting on group play winners. Here are the Olympic basketball odds for the 5×5 tournament group play winners:

Group A Winner

TeamOdds
Canada-156
Greece+420
Australia+500
Spain+680

Group B Winner

TeamOdds
France-205
Germany+200
Brazil+1000
Japan+6500

Group C Winner

TeamOdds
USA-1200
Serbia+680
South Sudan+2000
Puerto Rico+6500

After group play we have the single-elimination tournament. The odds of winning the gold are as follows:

Odds to Win Gold

TeamOdds
USA-400
Canada+1000
France+1500
Serbia+1500
Germany+2500
Australia+4000
Greece+5000
Spain+7500
South Sudan+15000
Puerto Rico+25000
Brazil+25000
Japan+50000

Team USA Gets a Scare

The USA Olympic basketball team has been the prohibitive favorites to win their fifth straight gold medal since the odds have come out. A week ago the Americans were -480 favorites to win gold, and now they are only -400. This change is likely in response to their near loss to South Sudan a few days ago. For the latest odds and betting options, visit BetMGM.

Despite being heavy favorites (-43.5) against South Sudan, the lowest-ranked team (33rd) in the tournament, the Americans barely escaped with a 101-100 victory.

South Sudan, a young nation with limited training facilities, nearly pulled off a historic upset. Their impressive three-point shooting kept them in the game, highlighting the growing competitiveness of international basketball.

Coach Steve Kerr emphasized this point earlier this summer.  He acknowledged past struggles, including exhibition losses and a close gold medal victory in Tokyo 2020. The Dream Team of 1992, which won by large margins and never needed a timeout, feels like a distant memory.

Looking at the bigger picture, other results further illustrate the open nature of this year’s Olympics.  Australia beat Serbia, who beat France, who split games with Germany.  These close contests suggest that any team can be vulnerable, regardless of reputation.

While the U.S. eventually pulled off the win thanks to a second-half surge, the experience exposed potential weaknesses.  They learned a valuable lesson: if they don’t play to their full potential, they can be beaten.

3×3 Tournament Fun

The 3×3 tournament presents more Olympic basketball fun for fans to enjoy. The odds for the 3×3 tournament are currently as follows:

3×3 Basketball Odds

TeamOdds
Serbia 3×3+150
USA 3×3+170
Latvia 3×3+470
France 3×3+600
Netherlands 3×3+950
Lithuania 3×3+1400
China 3×3+2900
Poland 3×3+3400

When it comes to basketball, it is odd not to see the USA at the top of the odds, but when it comes to 3×3, they didn’t even qualify for the last Olympics. Eastern Europe has produced the top contenders in 3×3 basketball historically. Latvia took home the gold last year in a match over Russia. Serbia, the favorite to win, came home with bronze.

  • For a decade, Serbia’s men’s 3×3 team has dominated the international scene, consistently racking up wins and producing NBA stars. The Serbian squad boasts Dejan Majstorovic, Marko Brankovic, Mihailo Vasic, and the world’s No. 1 ranked 3×3 player, Strahinja Stojacic. This core group has secured the past two 3×3 World Cup titles (2022 & 2023), and with Stojacic’s 2023 FIBA 3×3 World Tour MVP title under his belt, Serbia remains the team to beat.

While Serbia is the favorite, the US team shouldn’t be underestimated.  One familiar face leads the American team: former BYU star Jimmer Fredette.  His transition from the NBA (last playing with Phoenix Suns in 2018-19) to 3×3 basketball perfectly suits his skillset – a deadly mid-range and three-point shot.

Joining Fredette are Dylan Travis, Canyon Barry, and Kareem Maddox.  This group clinched the 2022 FIBA 3×3 AmeriCup in their debut tournament, but couldn’t beat Serbia at the 2023 World Cup.  They currently hold the No. 2 ranking in the world, setting the stage for a potential clash with Serbia.

Latvia will of course be a threat to defend their Olympic gold title, and they are the oddsmakers third most likely team to win it all. France, too, will be in the mix. Their recent fourth-place finish at the Europe Cup represents improvement over the eighth-place showing at the World Cup.

However, the passionate French crowd could be a significant advantage. Hometown support can often be a game-changer, and a fervent Parisian audience might propel France beyond expectations.

For Olympic betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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